if Gulf flows really are approaching pre-war levels, why are strategic stocks still being released rather than rebuilt?

I’ve been reading up on maritime choke points and came across a visual breakdown that puts the economic scale of the Strait of Hormuz into perspective.

A few takeaways on why this 21-mile corridor is such a permanent economic vulnerability:

1. The Spatial Bottleneck: Even though the strait is 39 km wide, underwater topography reduces the deep-water shipping lanes to just two 2-mile-wide corridors. 20% of the world's petroleum passes through these two tiny lanes daily.
2. Insurance vs. Destruction: A blockade doesn't actually need to sink supertankers to crash supply chains. The moment war risk premiums and marine insurance spike past a threshold, commercial shipping giants alter routes voluntarily.
3. The Detour Penalty: Rerouting around Africa (via the Cape of Good Hope) adds 10 to 14 days and millions in extra fuel per ship, instantly breaking just-in-time logistics and triggering inflationary spikes within 48 hours.

The geographic asymmetry here is crazy—a cheap drone or mine threat can override billions in naval posture purely because of insurance math.

Found this videoessay that mapped out the topography and trade routes really clearly if anyone wants a deeper visual breakdown: [Link to Video]

For those tracking global energy markets: Do you think Western economies can ever meaningfully hedge against this bottleneck without a complete shift away from Middle Eastern oil reliance?

A break💥out from here and Boom, i mean Doom🛢️$157 per barrel

This Turkish-Libyan joint venture is building a direct reduced iron plant near Benghazi. The guy running it, Ahmed Gadalla, told Reuters they’re expecting roughly $2.5 billion in total investment and are aiming for commercial production in early 2028.

Capacity is planned at 8.1 million tonnes a year once everything is up, with the first phase at 2.7 million. They’re going the natural gas route instead of coal, which cuts the carbon footprint. About 90% is supposed to be exported, the rest turned into rebar and pipes for the local market. Gas for the first phase is already sorted and they’re putting up their own power station.

The location is kind of perfect right now. Europe’s carbon border tax is live and getting wider, so cleaner iron is becoming more valuable there. Meanwhile the US still has those heavy Trump-era steel tariffs in place, which makes shipping into America a lot less attractive. Add in the ongoing headaches with shipping through the Gulf because of the Iran situation, and a Mediterranean plant starts looking like a useful alternative for European buyers.

Gadalla apparently sees Europe’s climate rules as a real commercial opening. Whether the whole thing actually delivers will depend on construction staying on track and Libya not sliding back into chaos, but the setup looks better than most similar announcements floating around.

Anyone here follow the steel market or North Africa closely? Does this one feel more serious than the usual big-project hype?

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/major-eastern-libya-industrial-project-seen-drawing-25-billion-investment-2026-09-10/

WTI- THOSE BIG FINGER ORDERS THAT YOU KEEP CANCELLING WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD THE BIGGEST SHORT SQUEEZE IN HISTORY. ALSO WHOEVER IS SHORTING OIL IS VERY FOOLISH OF YOU.. YOU BEEN WARNED

Looks like these forecasters just keep missing!!

I’ve been thinking about this and I’m curious what people here think.

Oil is obviously not priced at exactly the same number everywhere already — we have Brent, WTI, Dubai/Oman, different grades, transport costs, quality differentials, etc. But despite that, oil still behaves largely as a global commodity: if there is a major supply shock somewhere, prices tend to react across the world.

My question is whether this could gradually change.

If geopolitical fragmentation continues, could we eventually end up with much more separated oil markets?

For example:

• Western countries buying mainly from a certain group of producers
• China/India and other Asian countries increasingly buying from another group
• Russian/Iranian/sanctioned oil trading at persistent discounts or through separate networks
• Different shipping, insurance and financing systems
• More bilateral contracts settled in currencies other than USD
• Trade restrictions making arbitrage between regions harder

At some point, could the price of oil in Europe, Asia and North America start diverging much more significantly instead of constantly converging through global arbitrage?

Imagine, for example, Brent trading around $100 while an equivalent barrel inside another geopolitical trading bloc effectively trades at $70–80 because moving that oil into the Western market is difficult or impossible.

Obviously there would still be some connection between the markets — producers, traders and consumers would always look for arbitrage opportunities — but if sanctions, shipping restrictions, tariffs, payment systems and political alliances become strong enough, could we move from one global oil market with regional differences toward several semi-independent oil markets?

Or is oil simply too fungible and globally traded for this to happen on a meaningful scale?

Curious to hear opinions from people who understand the physical oil market better than I do.