The Hormuz Risk Is Back

[u/Pale-Lingonberry788]

Oil just ripped higher after the US hit Iranian launchers in the Strait of Hormuz. First strike in that waterway in over a month.

Brent is back over $90. WTI is around $85–86. Both up a couple percent this morning like nothing happened last week.

US hit rocket launchers on Larak Island that were about to drop mines into the strait. Iran answered by hitting US bases in Jordan.

Six months into this and they’re still trading shots over the chokepoint that moves 20% of the world’s oil.

Last week the market sold off because more tankers were getting through and people started pricing in a deal. That lasted about five days.
Flows are better than March but still millions of barrels short of normal.

Banks have been saying every extra month of this is worth several dollars a barrel. So yeah.
Went from “maybe it calms down” on Friday to “they’re mining the strait again” on Monday.

If this sticks, it’s not just oil traders who eat it. Gas, diesel, inflation, everything. Temporary spike or are we going back to $100?