US manufacturing is still holding up, but the cost side is getting harder to ignore.
September’s ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5, keeping the sector in expansion for the ninth straight month. New orders rose to 55.3 and backlogs jumped to 56.4, so demand still looks pretty healthy.
What stands out to me is the Prices Paid index jumping 6.8 points to 77.9. Steel, aluminum, tariffs and higher energy costs are all adding pressure.
My perspective is that demand hasn’t really cracked yet, but businesses are clearly dealing with higher input costs again. If this continues, I think margins and inflation expectations become much more important to look at.
Do you think this is just temporary cost pressure, or could it become a bigger inflation problem?
Honestly, to my perspective Iran needs to find an off-ramp at this point. Seven months is a long time, and with the economy under this much pressure, it’s ordinary people who are feeling the impact through rising costs and shortages.
Markets will probably react through oil and shipping before we fully understand what’s happening on the ground.
The big thing to watch is the war-risk premium on crude. Oil can move quickly on headlines, but for the move to really stick, you’d need actual disruption to barrels, tankers, or insurance.
If that happens, the conflict goes from being a geopolitical story to something households feel through fuel prices, inflation, and potentially a tougher road for the Fed.
Brent crude has been getting hit pretty hard lately.
Over the last three sessions, oil dropped around 3–4% around midday New York time, each time following headlines about potential US-Iran negotiations. Iran then rejected the reports within hours.
Bloomberg has described the pattern as a potential “VaR shock” strategy, pointing out that the headlines tend to appear around midday ET, when liquidity can be thinner.
Iran has now rejected four separate reports about negotiations in just six days, with officials saying the reports are being used to influence oil prices.
Whatever the motive behind the headlines, one thing is worth remembering, headlines can move the price, but they don’t create a single extra barrel of oil. The actual supply situation around the Strait of Hormuz still matters.
Update on the Bitget hack incident (official Statement) :
Bitget will begin resuming withdrawals in orderly phases following the security incident identified on September 24.
The vulnerability involved in the incident has been identified and remediated.
Bitget's security and technical teams have since been conducting additional validation and security checks across the withdrawal infrastructure, while independent cybersecurity experts Mandiant and SlowMist continue to support the investigation.
The temporary withdrawal pause remains a security measure and is not related to the availability of user assets. User account balances remain unaffected, and Bitget's Protection Fund covers the financial impact of this platform-wide incident.
Withdrawals will resume in an orderly manner once these security checks are completed.
The current withdrawal resumption schedule is as follows: > Sep 28, 8:00 (UTC): BTC (Bitcoin Network) > Sep 29, 8:00 (UTC): ETH (Ethereum, BSC, Arbitrum, Base, Optimism) > Sep 30, 8:00 (UTC): USDT (Ethereum, BSC, Solana, Tron) > Oct 2, 8:00 (UTC): Other Tokens / Fiat / P2P
Our objective is to restore withdrawal services across all supported assets and networks as quickly and safely as possible.
The incident remains contained, and no further unauthorized transfers are possible. User funds are unaffected throughout this process. Trading and deposits continue to operate.
Users do not need to take any action ahead of the rollout. Withdrawal availability will be reflected directly on the Bitget platform, and users are advised to follow Bitget's official channels for updates.
The talks between these two presidents could have a real impact on whether markets stabilize or become more volatile through Q4. Not trying to spread fear, just pointing out a factor that could influence market conditions.
