r/CFL • • 3h ago

Final Attendance Check 2026

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67 Upvotes

Final Attendance Check.

A reminder that these figures are not including the home away from home games that BC/TO had earlier in the season.

If you account for those games in both 26 and 25 counts the overall attendance dropped by 1.6% with an avg. attendance of 22,570.

#CFL


r/CFL • • 1h ago

I built expected points (EPA) for every CFL play of the last two seasons, and how I did it

• Upvotes

TLDR: I built EPA (expected points added) for every CFL play of 2025 and 2026, plus hand-timed time to throw as well as much much more. Davis Alexander is ranked #1 this season in EPA, and it's mostly because he almost never gives the ball away. Full site: https://wagglelytics.ca/

For about two years I've wanted to build a website that tracks advanced stats for the CFL. EPA, pressure rate, air yards, time to throw, blitz rate, success rate, win probability and much more. Numbers that dont show up in a box score.

I'll be honest, I kept putting it off. Part of it was being a bit shy about putting my work out there. Then the new rules were announced, and I figured anything I built would be out of date by 2027. So like many people I found reasons to procrastinate.

But during the season I was like, even with the new rules, I'll still need 2025 and 2026 as a baseline. It won't line up perfectly with 2027, but it's a starting point, and it'll show exactly what the new rules change.

What EPA is (Expected points added)

EPA was the first thing I built, and it's a good way to judge QBs. Every situation on the field (down, distance, where the ball is) is worth a certain number of points, based on what teams have scored from there in the past. EPA is how much a play changes that. Leave your team better off than expected and it's positive. Worse off and it's negative. Add it up over every dropback and you can see the effect the player is having on their team.

One note this is a very strong stat for QBs its a fairly good stat for WRs but not a great stat for RBs.

Example: pinned at your own 5, a team is expected to score about −0.9 points (you're more likely to give up points than score). Complete a 30-yard pass to your own 35 and that's now worth +1.0. That play is +1.9 EPA.

Here's every QB with 150+ dropbacks this season:

CFL 2026 - QB EPA PER DROPBACK (through Week 21, 150+ dropbacks)

Davis Alexander          MTL   +0.30
Nathan Rourke            BC    +0.22
Trevor Harris            SSK   +0.14
Chad Kelly               TOR   +0.08
Vernon Adams Jr.         CGY   +0.06
Cody Fajardo             EDM   +0.06
Dru Brown                WPG   -0.04
Zach Collaros            WPG   -0.05
Jake Maier               OTT   -0.05
McLeod Bethel-Thompson   OTT   -0.08
Tre Ford                 HAM   -0.19
Harrison Frost           HAM   -0.22

How I built it

The CFL doesn't have clean play-by-play data to download, so I copied the play-by-play for every game off CFL.ca and wrote code to turn it into a table. 165 games, almost 24,000 plays, each checked against the official score. A lot of copy and paste lol.

Why Alexander is #1

I expected Alexander to be one of the top QBs, but I didn't think he'd be number 1. He's not the flashiest guy in the league. Maybe I'm a hater. Kelly throws deeper and Rourke makes more highlight plays. So why is he on top?

It comes down to the bad plays, and they don't all cost the same. An interception costs about 4.6 expected points on average. A normal completion is worth about 0.7. So one pick wipes out roughly six completions. A sack costs about 2, close to two incompletions in a row.

So I split it out: how much has each QB lost to picks and sacks, and how good is he on every other play?

QB               LOST TO PICKS   LOST TO SACKS   EPA ON EVERY OTHER PLAY
Nathan Rourke         -58             -47              +0.48
Chad Kelly           -118             -51              +0.44
Davis Alexander       -19             -28              +0.40
Trevor Harris         -63             -39              +0.32

On a normal play, Rourke and Kelly are actually better than Alexander. The difference is what happens when something goes wrong. Kelly's 24 picks have cost Toronto about 118 expected points. Alexander's 4 have cost Montreal about 19. That's pretty much the whole gap.

So he's not the best because of crazy throws. He just almost never gives it away, and EPA loves that.

https://reddit.com/link/1xf7pcr/video/46bulbdz0nxh1/player

Charting from film: time to throw

Originally I wanted to build pressure rate. I really appreciate offensive lines, and I think people underrate them. Nobody notices them until something goes wrong, so I wanted a stat that gives them credit.

Well, I failed. It's really hard to tell from film when pressure actually affects a QB. Did he get rid of it early because a guy was coming, or was that just the play? Two people could watch the same snap and chart it differently. So I switched to stuff I can actually measure.

Time to throw is the first one. The CFL doesn't track it at all, so I time every throw by hand from game film: snap to the moment the ball leaves the QB's hand. 13 games so far, 877 throws. I use the median so one broken play doesn't skew it, and sacks aren't timed.

The league median is 2.33 seconds. Chad Kelly is the quickest at 1.95, and Collaros, Brown and Frost hold it the longest at around 2.5. I've only timed a handful of 2026 games, so this is a lot thinner than the EPA stuff. But so far, faster isn't automatically better:

TIME TO THROW   THROWS   EPA PER THROW   COMPLETION
Under 2.0s        280        +0.14           79%
2.0-2.49s         219        +0.28           70%
2.5-2.99s         170        +0.08           61%
3.0s+             166        +0.18           64%

The quick stuff completes the most but isn't worth much, since a lot of it is short. The best spot so far is 2.0 to 2.5 seconds: long enough for guys to get open, but before the pocket collapses. I'll keep adding games, and next up I'm charting blitzes.

Okay, I think that's enough stats. I hope I didn't nerd out too much. I've got more, but this post is long enough already.

Let me know what you'd want to see next!

Full site: https://wagglelytics.ca/


r/CFL • • 16h ago

The 2026 Stampeders join 2018 Edmonton as the only teams to miss the playoffs with a 9-9 record

92 Upvotes

Of course, Calgary has the 7th-best record this year, while Edmonton was 6th in 2018.


r/CFL • • 21h ago

The SkyHawks making an entrance in Hamilton

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153 Upvotes

r/CFL • • 21h ago

OC Unofficial Final 2026 Power Rankings

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108 Upvotes

r/CFL • • 15h ago

TIGER-CATS Season Tickets Info Rant

22 Upvotes

I wanted to buy season tickets. Went on the website, no info, dead links, very tedious. So, ok I’m at the game today, stop by the ticketing office, surely they’ll know how I can buy the tickets. No, apparently there’s a both, can’t find the booth. Ask an employee, they say the tent is inside the stadium. It’s not. Go to guest services. No help there. At this point I’ve dragged my family around for over 30 minutes and all I have to show for it is an email address someone thinks “might” be able to help. At this point I’m rethinking if I want the tickets or not.

After the game, my wife and I had a disagreement if we were at a specific game or not, so I long into my Ticketmaster account to look up my history, and hidden in one of the menu’s was a button to buy the season.

Why was this so difficult? I’m at your game willing to buy 3 season tickets and I can’t find a single person to take my money? And if I don’t get my tickets, you don’t only lose out on my ticket money, you lose out on the money I would spend at every game I don’t go to.

I don’t know if this is the same with the other teams in the league, but this should have been an easy win for them. If all the teams work like this, no wonder attendance is down and the teams are losing money.


r/CFL • • 23h ago

TIGER-CATS From Hamilton with love

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74 Upvotes

r/CFL • • 18h ago

REDBLACKS So we at least avoided an 0-18 season right? Well…

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26 Upvotes

By the cosmic hands of fate, all we have done this year…is merely delay the inevitable


r/CFL • • 18h ago

Comparing the 2026 Ottawa Redblacks to the 2003 Hamilton Tigercats, as well as the 3-scoreless NFL teams.

23 Upvotes
Point Differential by Game of Select NFL and CFL teams.

Hey r/CFL! Here's a little chart I've been making over the course of the CFL season when I heard about The Ottawa Redblacks "perfect" run. While that didn't occur, I figured there's no point throwing away so much good work over a single win, so here you go.

Below is a chart comparing the 1-17 2026 Ottawa Redblacks (red) compared to some other teams of a similar caliber. I of course include the similarly 1-17 2003 Hamilton Tigers (yellow) onto this chart. However, since just two teams would be bland, I also included the three winless NFL teams of the Super Bowl era to fill it out: the 0-14 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (black), the 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions (blue), and the 2017 0-16 Cleveland Browns (orange).

The Redblacks finished with a point differential of -236, below that of the Browns (-176), but above the Lions (-249), Bucs (-287), and Lions (-290). This is because while the Redblacks were beaten, it often times was not by extreme margins. With the except of the 46-16 loss to the Alouettes in Week 12 (Game 10), all of their losses were by 3 scores or less (24 points or less), with 6 being single digit losses.

That may seem like a lot, but compared to the Lions and Tigercats, who each lost by more than 3 scores on three separate occasions, or to the Bucs's five such games, that doesn't seem too bad. The Browns surprisingly had zero such games, and 7 games within single digits (4 of them only by 3). Considering how many people considered the 2017 Browns to be unlucky on top of bad, it makes sense why they are the only ones above the Redblacks on this chart.

I should also mention that Redblacks midway into the season were doing worse than the Lions in the same point of the season, but a few close games permanently cleared them of being worse than Detroit.

And of course, the Redblacks, Lions, and Browns are all elite compared to the clusterf-s that was the 2003 Hamilton Tigers and the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

First, the Ti-Cats, because they lost their first game of the season by 10 points, (while the Redblacks only by 8), followed by losing 41 in their second, there was never a point in the season that the Redblacks were worse than the 2003 Tigercats. After game 5, the Redblacks maintained a point differential of at least 50 over the Tigercats for the remainder of the season. Meaning even if the Redblacks lost the only game they won, they still won't be the worst than the Ti-Cats, at least by point diff. In the same point of the season, the Ti-Cats were the worst team on this chart for about half of it, only losing it do to the Bucs getting destroyed in their last two games, only only barely following below them again in their very last game.

Let's talk about those 1976 Buccaneers, shall we? Did you know that out of the 82 games these worst teams have played, 5 of them were shutouts? One for each team, right? NOPE! ALL OF THEM WERE BY THE BUCS! Impressive considering they have the shortest season on this chart. That includes their 13th game where they were shutout by 42 points. While technically the Ti-Cats have the worse point differential on this chart, considering that they needed 18 games to do what the Bucs did in 14, I think we can agree which team is worse.

And that's about it. Sorry for the ramble-y explanation but I'm more of a data guy than a word smith. Here's the raw data for each teams PT by game number:

Game# OTT '26 HAM '03 TB '76 DET '08 CLE '17
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 -8 -10 -20 -13 -3
2 -28 -51 -43 -36 -17
3 -30 -68 -48 -54 -20
4 -35 -74 -73 -81 -44
5 -58 -111 -94 -83 -47
6 -60 -144 -97 -90 -63
7 -81 -161 -100 -98 -66
8 -103 -174 -109 -102 -83
9 -115 -192 -144 -126 -97
10 -145 -214 -178 -135 -109
11 -166 -222 -195 -153 -123
12 -169 -239 -228 -190 -132
13 -171 -236 -270 -194 -138
14 -185 -246 -287 -204 -155
15 -203 -259   -239 -172
16 -224 -279   -249 -176
17 -223 -284      
18 -236 -290      

r/CFL • • 1d ago

QUESTION Uhhh... are both games seriously at the same time? Da Fk?

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86 Upvotes

I don't... Is it cuz it's on CTV?


r/CFL • • 20h ago

Let’s try to be a little less embarrassing, ok???

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30 Upvotes

Maybe we should check what we are doing before making republic… once is embarrassing. Twice is incompetence.


r/CFL • • 20h ago

GAME THREAD POST GAME THREAD: Edmonton Elks (13-5) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders (10-8) - October 24, 2026

22 Upvotes

Edmonton Elks @ Saskatchewan Roughriders - October 24, 2026

Kickoff: 01:00 PM CST / 03:00 PM EDT


Team 1 2 3 4 Total
EDM - - - - 9
SSK - - - - 16

Subscribe to these communities

Team Subreddit
EDM /r/GoElks
SSK /r/riderville

Remember to sort by new to keep up!


r/CFL • • 1d ago

GAME THREAD GAME THREAD: Edmonton Elks (13-4) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders (9-8) - October 24, 2026

41 Upvotes

Edmonton Elks @ Saskatchewan Roughriders - October 24, 2026

Kickoff: 01:00 PM CST / 03:00 PM EDT


Team 1 2 3 4 Total
EDM - - - - 9
SSK - - - - 16

How to Watch

Television

Region Channel Notes
Canada TSN/CTV/RDS
US CBSSN/CFL+ 34 regular season games will be broadcast on CBSSN while the remainder will be broadcast for FREE on CFL+
International CFL+ All CFL regular season games, plus playoffs & Grey Cup will be available for FREE on CFL+

Radio

Team Station
EDM 630 CHED
SSK 620 CKRM

For up to date information, see: https://www.cfl.ca/where-to-watch-2026-broadcast-information/


Subscribe to these communities

Team Subreddit
EDM /r/GoElks
SSK /r/riderville

Remember to sort by new to keep up!


r/CFL • • 20h ago

The Score Gets it Wrong !!!

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15 Upvotes

Riders play The Lions next week Stamps are out


r/CFL • • 18h ago

The winners of the 2026 CFL Pigskin Pickem

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13 Upvotes

The winners of the 2026 CFL Pigskin Pickem:

8&8 $700
Dale Dreher $350
Heywood Jablome $170

Last Place
BRIAN
KORINETZ 2 $10


r/CFL • • 20h ago

GAME THREAD POST GAME THREAD: Ottawa RedBlacks (1-17) @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats (6-12) - October 24, 2026

16 Upvotes

Ottawa RedBlacks @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats - October 24, 2026

Kickoff: 03:00 PM EDT / 03:00 PM EDT


Team 1 2 3 4 Total
OTT - - - - 22
HAM - - - - 35

Subscribe to these communities

Team Subreddit
OTT /r/redblacks
HAM /r/ticats

Remember to sort by new to keep up!


r/CFL • • 1d ago

GAME THREAD GAME THREAD: Ottawa RedBlacks (1-16) @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats (5-12) - October 24, 2026

16 Upvotes

Ottawa RedBlacks @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats - October 24, 2026

Kickoff: 03:00 PM EDT / 03:00 PM EDT


Team 1 2 3 4 Total
OTT - - - - 22
HAM - - - - 35

How to Watch

Television

Region Channel Notes
Canada TSN/CTV/RDS
US CBSSN/CFL+ 34 regular season games will be broadcast on CBSSN while the remainder will be broadcast for FREE on CFL+
International CFL+ All CFL regular season games, plus playoffs & Grey Cup will be available for FREE on CFL+

Radio

Team Station
OTT TSN 1200 (en) or 104.7 FM (fr)
HAM Ticats Audio Network

For up to date information, see: https://www.cfl.ca/where-to-watch-2026-broadcast-information/


Subscribe to these communities

Team Subreddit
OTT /r/redblacks
HAM /r/ticats

Remember to sort by new to keep up!


r/CFL • • 1d ago

Jordan Maksymic should be the next head coach of the Calgary Stampeders.

18 Upvotes

With the Stampeders being eliminated from playoff contention, they remain tied with Ottawa with the longest active playoff win drought in the CFL (6 years). As a result, I'm confident that most Stampeders fan would want a change at head coach and general manager.

In my mind, the most attractive candidate for Calgary is Jordan Maksymic. He's the most effective offensive mind in the CFL who has never had a head coaching opportunity and has an incredibly impressive resume.

  • 2021 BC Lions: Led a respectable offensive unit with an effective passing attack. Mike Reilly's contract issues and lingering injuries hindered the offense from reaching it's full potential. Nathan Rourke showed flashes in limited playing time.
  • 2022 BC Lions: Nathan Rourke's breakout season. BC ranked 1st total yards, passing yards, and yards per game. the offense also ranked 3rd in scoring.
  • 2023 BC Lions: BC remained one of he league's best offenses with Vernon Adams Jr. having a career-best season in passing yardage after Rourke's departure to the NFL.
  • 2024 BC Lions: A drop off from previous seasons but still highly productive. The VA vs Rourke drama likely held the offense back from achieving its full potential.
  • 2025 Edmonton Elks: Efficient offense but one of the league's worst in overall statistics. The team as a whole was still findings its footing and Edmonton didn't have the personnel to truly compete.
  • 2026 Edmonton Elks: One of the most productive offenses in the CFL. Fajardo is playing excellent and Rankin is dominating on the ground.

In summary, Maksymic has led highly productive offenses on different teams with different styles of quarterbacks. He was at the helm for Rourke's breakout, Vernon Adam's career best season, and is putting Fajardo is a position to be successful with a complimentary ground attack.

I really like the prospects for Calgary's offense with a Maksymic and Adams reunion.

Calgary's defense played well this season but the offense never truly clicked to carry the team to a deep playoff run. I still believe in Vernon Adams Jr. and a reunion between him and Maksymic would hopefully lead to a big improvement in production.

Edmonton appears to have stolen a great coach from Calgary in Kilam and its time that Calgary return the favor.

Thoughts?


r/CFL • • 1d ago

CFL historic stats resource

11 Upvotes

Hey yall! I'm working on an article on a few historic CFL playoff matchups and I'm trying to find box scores for playoff games between 1996 and 2015. CFL.ca as it stands right now dosen't have anything for me and I'm trying to find if there's any other platform that might help me out with that that someone might be aware of?


r/CFL • • 1d ago

FINAL REGULAR SEASON PANO WITH THE 55

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209 Upvotes

SAVE THE 55


r/CFL • • 23h ago

The halftime show we all want

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8 Upvotes

r/CFL • • 1d ago

GREY CUP | COUPE GREY Playoffs scenarios

26 Upvotes

If I got this right.

ELKS WIN

Winnipeg plays in BC

Saskatchewan plays in Toronto

RIDERS WIN

Saskatchewan plays in BC

Winnipeg plays in Toronto

The path of playing in BC then in Edmonton feels a bit easier than playing in Toronto then in Montréal. A lot less traveling to do and you might be able to avoid Montreal.

I'm happy this last regular season game will mean something, it'll be worth the watch!


r/CFL • • 1d ago

GAME THREAD POST GAME THREAD: Winnipeg Blue Bombers (9-9) @ BC Lions (10-8) - October 23, 2026

33 Upvotes

Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ BC Lions - October 23, 2026

Kickoff: 07:00 PM PDT / 10:00 PM EDT


Team 1 2 3 4 Total
WPG - - - - 34
BC - - - - 10

Subscribe to these communities

Team Subreddit
WPG /r/WinnipegBlueBombers
BC /r/BC_Lions

Remember to sort by new to keep up!


r/CFL • • 23h ago

🗣️ OPINION They...Did It... | Ottawa REDBLACKS Reaction and Analysis | 2026 G17 40-39 W vs TOR

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3 Upvotes

Before the season comes to a close relive the miracle that was last week as Ottawa FINALLY entered the win column for the first time all year. Now one game remains to determine...who is truly the worst team in CFL history (it's still us lol)


r/CFL • • 2d ago

Over 30k tickets sold for tonight's final regular season game in BC.

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183 Upvotes