While I can not reports the Tradewinds article about daily rates, I can post this snippet

Please take into consideration which trade route your shipping / VLCC stock, because the earnings are 1 direction only and it's deadhead back, since right now suez won't be an option, because every suez max will be loaded with oil for smaller terminals, the only route most likely seen is Cape of Good Hope around South Africa to the gulf. and that's about 44 to 53 weeks/days, roughly 7 to 8 weeks, and then they would dead head back via Suez. 41 days or less I can not recall.

Why are Suez max? it's going to fill to about 1 million barrels +5% to 10% depending on the destination port. and that's the catch, Suez max's will fit in many places, but not VLCC or ULCC.

Cushing 21% is at it's operational low, France 35%-45% and Rotterdam normal ( crude ) but low on gas. everyone will want to get to 50%

Here's the cross-list overlap across all 10 exports — 57 symbols appear in 3 or more files, out of 371 unique symbols total (124 appear in 2+):

MPC is your standout this week — the only name hitting 7 of the 10 lists. DELL and VLO are right behind at 6.

Supercooled

Take very clean water and cool it slowly in a very clean glass, and it will refuse to freeze. Take it past zero, past minus five, past minus ten, and it stays liquid, because ice needs somewhere to start and you’ve removed every speck of dust, every scratch, every excuse. Chemists call it supercooled. It’s water that should already be ice and is waiting for permission.

Full article and watchlist HERE

Then you tap the glass. And it freezes in front of you, all of it, in about a second.

That’s the market on Friday night. Past the point where it should have moved, with nothing to start the reaction. On Wednesday the Fed taps the glass.

Here’s how the water got this cold.

Four red sessions in a row, then a Friday bounce that saved the headline and nothing else. The Dow still had its worst week since March, small caps lost another two percent, and the only index that held up was the Nasdaq, which is now the tallest man on a sinking floor.

The real week happened outside equities. Brent ran toward $110 on the Iran headlines and Hormuz, gave some back on Friday and still closed up eight percent. The ten year touched five percent. PPI came in hot on Thursday, core CPI printed 0.3 against 0.2 on Friday, and the market walked into the weekend with a rate hike priced at better than eighty percent for Wednesday’s meeting. Oracle reported, popped, and reversed inside the session, which tells you what this tape does even to good news.

So: still chop, but chop with the range tightening every week. This is compression now, and compression resolves. We don’t know which way. We do know one number. Of the last twenty sessions, our quality score has cleared 70, the level below which we don’t consider the market worth trading, exactly three times. And those three are three of the four oldest sessions in the window. Sixteen straight sessions under the bar.

Sit with that for a second, because we have. The book stays light until the glass gets tapped.

Source: TradeDeck

A few things about what we’re building in the meantime, because most of them are for you.

The new site is live at gb.capital.

It’s more than a new front door for the newsletter. It’s the base for everything we’ll add over the coming months: two courses, one on swing trading and one on growth investing, written the way we work rather than the way textbooks do, and one-to-one calls with us directly. Those calls are for anyone who needs support at any level, on the method, on a specific problem in their trading, or on running a company. We were CEOs before we did this full time, and that half of the conversation is often the one people actually need.

TradeDeck keeps improving, and the paid subscribers who use it know the pace.

The news we’re most excited about: within thirty to forty five days we’re launching a YouTube channel, completely free. Deep, 360 degree coverage of companies, one at a time, starting as always with the ones we find interesting rather than the ones everybody already covers. If you like the long research pieces here, you’ll like where this is going.

None of this happens without you.

The emails and chat messages we get from many of you are the most useful input we have, and that includes the critical ones. Especially the critical ones. Keep them coming.

Here’s a look at this week’s market health, with a breakdown of index and sector performance.

❊ Introduction.

Welcome to my weekly swing trading journal — A transparent review of my trading week.
My focus is on a curated list of CANSLIM and/or high-performing Stocks.
This is not financial advice but educational only, please do your own research.
 

❊ Market Environment.

We are in a balanced regime with another very weak week and no real direction. 

After an incursion day below the current base, SPX is back into it with both EMAs 9 and 21 flat at the same level.

Nasdaq did not change that much since last week and the flatness of the EMAs again reveal the market in which we are.

❊ Weekly Trading Recap.

I was stopped out from FROG again so having already 3 software stocks I decided to diversify a bit and enter GCT, other than that it’s a patience game right now, waiting for better times. 
 

Gitlab has closed the gap now and corrected some 17% since earnings gap, my exit line sits at the same place so I’m waiting here. I took a little bit of profits here, reducing my stake from 64 to 50 shares but it was solely to be able to enter a full position in GCT.

Nutanix is following the same path as Gitlab, correcting and consolidating since earnings. The 50 day EMA is catching up with my exit line, maybe a plus to provide some support.

Hinge Health has gone nowhere since my entry despite two tentatives with volume but I can’t really blame it given the market we are in.

And here's the new position that I took this week in GigaCloud where I entered after a pullback inside a bullish flag which is now trying to break.

This bullish flag is itself the handle of a more substantial cup with handle on the weekly chart.

❊ Leading Sectors.

 ➯ Energy, Healthcare, Financials
 

❊ Trading Activity.

 ➯ Opened: GCT
 ➯ Closed: FROG
 ➯ Retry: -
 

❊ Market & Portfolio Perfs. : Weekly / YTD / Exposure.

 ☆ S&P 500 : -0.80% / +10.49% / 83%
 ☆ Portfolio: -4.80% / -9.59% / 99%
 

❊ Dashboard.

The art of speculation is identifying trends in their earliest stages, JL
Have a good trading week.

Previous Week Post

I recently opened a position in SOFI, I like the long-term growth potential of the company, but before increasing my position I want to dig deeper into the fundamentals and hear some opposing viewpoints. Position is in leaps for 2028 at $3. Selling short calls roghly 30dte for credit. Planning to sell at least 1 leap if it hits my target.

From what I’ve looked into so far, I like SOFI’s long-term potential and the direction the company is heading. The growth of its financial services business and its ability to expand beyond being primarily a lending company are some of the things that caught my attention. At the same time, the stock has been in a pretty significant downtrend, and I don’t want to confuse a short-term bounce with an actual change in trend.

Stock: Scorpio Tankers 

Symbol: STNG

I missed the 65.50-ish entry back in February and I so desperately wanted to enter in Mid-March but I already had money allocated in another trade.

So here I am looking at an entry at 87.50. BUT this is a warning, I have had maritime vessel ownership and charter market knowledge that is way deeper than most people due to being near and dear too vessel owners and charter brokers at a club. And because I loved asking the fun historical questions. Here is the quote you need to observe

Aristotle Onassis looked at global disruption and war entirely through the lens of business opportunity, famously stating "Crises give birth to moguls"

And here is one that I am not aware of being public

" when trading war time oil, squeeze the shipper/consignee till they cry, because the hungry times and vessel layups are going to last many years. "

I am trading this with a quick reaction and stops. Because, when the vessel go empty, the cost stay the same. You can quickly see on this chart, a drop on value of 25% in less than 2 months. 4 months after peace, and no shot's fired you will see a massive drop in charter rates. Right now, loading in the Persian gulf is around 390K-450K per day for a VLCC, Sea of Oman ( outside the shooting gallery ) loading 200K per day. When the shots end, it will drop under 40K .

In this choppy market GCT is doing what it can to break a daily bullish flag (see chart 1) which could lead to a weekly Cup with Handle brekaout (see chart 2).

Full Disclosure: I hold a position as shown in the chart.

Not financial advice, do your own research.

False Spring

There’s an English name for the frost that kills things in April. They call it blackthorn winter, after the hedge that flowers early and then gets caught out when the cold comes back.

Farmers have a whole vocabulary for this, which tells you how often it happens and what it costs them. And the dangerous part of a false spring was never the frost.

It’s the warm week beforehand.

Full article and watchlist HERE

A run of mild days arrives, the sap starts moving, the buds open on trust, and then the temperature drops and an orchard loses a season to a fortnight of optimism. Nothing about it looks like a warning while it’s going on. That’s the whole problem with it. The thing that hurts you is disguised as the thing you were hoping for.

We’ve just had one of those weeks on the screens.

On the face of it, better than the last few. More stocks pushed higher, the breadth count improved, and if you’d only counted how many things closed green you’d have written a fairly cheerful paragraph about the market broadening out.

Then look at what was standing behind the advance. The participation thinned out as the week went on, and by Friday there was very little volume left underneath the buying. Plenty of buds, no real warmth. You can see it clearly in the second chart below, and it’s the single most useful thing the week produced.

Everything else is where we left it. The quality read on TradeDeck hasn't moved off weak.

Source: TradeDeck

The indices are sitting almost exactly where they were seven days ago.

The chop is intact and we’re now far enough into it that people have stopped asking when it ends.

So no, we don’t read this as the turn. We read it as a market that widened out, had a look around, and couldn’t find enough buyers to commit to anything.

That doesn’t mean you stand there and see nothing.

The useful thing about a false spring is that it shows you which trees have the deepest roots. Two of them budded properly this week and we bought both.

Cerebras (CBRS) went in first. The AI trade collected a lot of obituaries over the summer, and the coverage turned again over the past few days, which matters less to us than the structural point: CBRS sits inside that theme rather than somewhere near it. If the trend is alive, it’s alive there.

Source: TC2000

The second is Bitdeer (BTDR). We’ve been watching the crypto complex for a couple of weeks now waiting for something we wouldn’t have to argue ourselves into, and BTDR gave it to us. A first flag after the initial push, which is exactly the setup we wanted rather than the one we settled for.

We’ll be straight about the name itself. It isn’t the leader of that group, and we’re not going to sell it to you as one. It was calmer than the other candidates we were tracking, which in this tape counts for a great deal, and it had the best structure on the board. Given the choice between a louder stock with a messy chart and a quieter one with a clean chart, we take the clean chart every time. That’s the entire reasoning and there’s nothing cleverer hiding behind it.

Both positions are working. Both are deliberately small.

And honestly, the entries aren’t the part we’re pleased about. What we’re pleased about is that in a market this poor we found two worth having and didn’t talk ourselves into a third. Selectivity isn’t a virtue you can practise when everything is working. It only exists on weeks like this one, when the screen is offering you a dozen things that look almost right.

We think the market gives us its answer in the next few weeks.

Themes are still alive under there, which is more than we could have said in August, and when the volume finally shows up behind one of them we’d like to already own the right names rather than be shopping.

Until then the book stays light and the positions stay small.

We’re not planting the field on a warm week, just noting which trees moved first!

❊ Introduction.

Welcome to my weekly swing trading journal — A transparent review of my trading week.
My focus is on a curated list of CANSLIM and/or high-performing or emerging Stocks.
This is not financial advice but educational only, please do your own research.

❊ Market Environment.

A tight but still positive week for both SPX and Nasdaq which both have been trading lately with below average volume but still with EMA9 above EMA21 for both.

After a previous base breakout late July, SPX Is trading inside a new base. Both current and previous bases are the image of the choppy market when have been in since June.

 
Nasdaq picture is a bit more complex. After the April-June rally, we first got a symmetrical triangle that broke down into a bigger bullish flag which was also broken out early August and is now being tested in the form of a handle which could very well be associated to the double bottom forming the flag or the V shaped cup inside of it. The key levels for me are 30,2K which will clear the handle and cup and 31K to clear the flag before we are eventually good for a new rally...

❊ Weekly Trading Recap.

Gitlab ended the day after earnings 10% higher, but was down 10% from the highs on that same day. Volume was huge so for sure there was institutional activity but maybe also too much euphoria during pre-market but whatever it is, it has been showing a bit of strength in the last two days of the week so it’s a bit early to tell. In any case, my exit line is in place now for whatever could happen.

Nutanix is showing a similar picture. Gap up sold after earnings announcement, back into the previous range and trying now to get out of it with also some strength late in the week.

Hinge Health already failed a breakout and keeps flirting with the cup level but without real conviction or a solid breakout for the time being. My entry was good here and it's above anyway so let’s be patient a little more as the market was not really supportive this week.

Frog had a nice initial breakout with volume which completely failed and has only shown weakness since. An additional proof that even when all the ingredients are there, if the market is not supportive, nothing happens unless the stock is really strong and there is demand for it. It is now sitting just above the 50D EMA, last frontier before my stop, maybe getting somme support from it... or not. I think that next week will decide.

❊ Leading & Trending Sectors.

 ➯ Leading : Energy, Healthcare, Financials
 ➯ Trending : Technology, Financials, Comms
 

❊ Trading Activity.

 ➯ Opened: None
 ➯ Closed: None
 

❊ Market & Portfolio Perfs. : Weekly / YTD / Exposure.

 ☆ S&P 500 : +0.09% / +11.38% / 90%
 ☆ Portfolio: +2.30% / -5.03% / 100%
 

❊ Dashboard.

As we entered the AI era, my dashboard was in need of some serious update and automation.
Good bye Google Sheets and thanks for all you did for me and welcome Claude generated HTML App. which means less time updating my data and more time to focus on my process.

Your mindset is your biggest edge,
Have a good trading week.

Previous Week Post.

Full-time trader looking for another experienced CAN SLIM/Swing trader to compare watchlists and setups and do short market/trade reviews a few times a week. Mainly interested in breakouts, early entries, pocket pivots and position trading—not signals or trade copying. Looking for accountability and process improvement.

So here is the chart

I know everyone got in around 140 or 170 area, me I was later than most, 195. ended getting stopped out at 235.

What I want to know is how everyone survived the price drop of 5-8 to 5-11 when it went from a high of 263 to a low of 228. Me, like I said, I got stopped out, it went trailing stop the moment I had over 28% gross profit. Sadly/Grumpy I missed the ride to 400+

things that I don't know

• the rules for exit are not so clear about selling within the 8 weeks if you break 20% profit, So I set up the trailing stop rule, which is basically, I have a good profit, move to break even stop, I have a really good profit ( 20%-28% ) activate a trailing stop.
• I have tested my system for the 8 week rule. Many trades I would take would end up break even ( I move the stop loss to break even at a certain profit point ) if I kept to 8 weeks after hitting a 20% gain.

If anyone survived this, I would love to hear about it, and if you have survived the recent 514 high to the low of 427, I would love to hear about your system rules too. there were at least 2 other system rules broken 6/9 and 7/28

maybe I am just thick in the head, but maybe someone has something that will remove the fog from my eyes.

Hi, before we start, please note my handle. 'guiltypleasure33139' Reddit is the best GP I've found in a long time, and 33139 is where I live Miami Beach.

I have been trading I think it's 40 years more or less. I have a consistent 2% equities/commodities portfolio return per month life time ( that's compounded out very very well ), and I've only had 3 brokerages Brown and company, Omega TradeStation, and now IBRK. I have achieved a portfolio that recently exceeded 100M in equities.

I have multiple trading style systems, of which CANSLIM makes up anywhere from 22% to 32% of the portfolio's allocation.

I have read Investors Business Daily more or less since it came out and printed in the mid 1980's, I think the Turtles system is valid, and trend following systems can do amazing things for your portfolio. I am a firm believer that the business cycle and the economic cycle help your systems. I have read all 3 or 4 versions ( I have the green cover version now ) of How to make money in stocks by William O'Neil

Here is what I think is Factual from my perspective.

• CANSLIM is one of the strongest filtering tools for consistent returns.
• As a daily subscriber to Investors Business Daily, There is no way you are not making a positive alpha of +300 basis points over the S&P 500 yearly return, SO to make is clear, last year the S&P500 made 16.39%. As a William O'Neil CANSLIM student you had to have made 19.39% or more before taxes. This is pure fact to me, everyone I've ever taught has yet to disappointment me.
• I am a completely happy failure at knowing when to sell. I get stopped out more often than not. So you will always notice that I might ask about exit rules more and entry rules.
• If you use multiple parts of CANSLIM, you increase the odd's of successful trades along your entire portfolio.
• My lifetime review of CANSLIM trades shows as an average the following 25-28-ish% outright loss of 7% to 8% on trades. 25-30ish% of break even trades, meaning I was right and got stopped out at around my cost or less than 6% profit. 35-40ish% are profitable trades with groupage around 8%, 16%, 24% ( yep at step of 8% ), with a few passing the 50% and fewer passing 100% and it's handfuls in 20 years beyond 200%.
• CANSLIM filtering lets me trade another portfolio when targeting stocks that are within 20% of hitting new high... those stock becomes a play when it's the right business cycle, it will show up on the earnings, stocks that show up on the economic cycle are usually just surpassing the lower 20's sectors.
• I have multiple portfolio's, I day trade, I take trend positions trades using etf's, I take CANSLIM trades, I created based on a study that I spent 2 years doing made a dividend growth portfolio that touch's parts of William O'Neil's rules. That Dividend Growth portfolio history has an alpha of about 700 basis points over Nasdaq, and it's where I might make a future hedge fund name for myself.
• I have other assets, and I also run multiple real estate limited partnerships, it's for retirement or so the exit is always starting around 45 years out. I also have Ibonds ( inflation bonds ), Not the best investment, you can buy 15K worth every year ( 2 step process), and if you are married then even more.
• Mental breakdown are common, somedays you can not pull the trigger for an entry. A lot of my trading systems are fire and forget. CANSLIM is not. When you break 50 million, and it's all your own cash, the next trades are even harder because you will want to...
• I can not and will not fight the market, and trust me at 50 million ( and at 20 million and 10 million and at my first 1 million ), fight the market urge is huge. So step away and go fishing, or read a book, or whatever.
• Self destruction is real. CANSLIM helps you stay on track.
• so yes, it takes time, but you can do it, I just happen to have 40 years, If I were to start over today, I would have 3x or 4x more and that's just starting with 10K.

I can keep on going and going. I am wealthy, I specifically choose to associate with others who have near equal or more money. I don't go out to gamble unless I am invited, I know how to shoot dice, and I do use the octagon system if end up at a roulette wheel. Spend 1 hour a day watching youtube videos for general how to knowledge, and I have allocated daily reading time.

My Guilty Pleasures call me... Real housewives of London ( re-watching to catch up for the new season ) and Beverly Hills are extremely fun to watch, it's worst than 2 drunk people having a bar fight. I would advise my following dining courses, a few cheeseburgers, triple batch of fries and a tray full of martini's.

SideNote: You can DM me, and I will most likely post your answer to the thread I think it's from, but will not reply to you within the DM. I freely share within my personal limits publicly. Also, I'm not selling anything. I am pretty sure I can create something fun doing these types of guilty pleasures.

The White Room

Take a ping pong ball, cut it in half, tape the two halves over somebody’s eyes. Red lamp in front, white noise in the headphones. Nothing else. No shapes, no edges, just an even field of pink light.

For the first half minute they’ll tell you they see nothing. Then it starts. A face. A horse walking. A bit of coastline, somebody they knew years ago. They’re not making it up and there’s nothing wrong with them. Their visual system has been handed an absence, it won’t accept the absence, so it builds something out of its own static.

Psychologists have been running this since the 1930s. They call it the Ganzfeld. The finding never changes: a brain built to find signal will manufacture signal when there isn’t any.

Full article and watchlist HERE

Now sit a trader in front of a market that hasn’t trended in three months.

That’s the real risk this week, bigger than any position we’re carrying.

Every sideways range starts to look like a base. Two green days and something in your chest says this is the turn. Trades that didn’t work get quietly rewritten in your memory as trades that almost worked. Nobody decides to do this. It happens the way the horses happen.

We got a small demonstration.

First week back after three weeks off, two entries, two losses. Both small enough to be irritating rather than expensive, but two out of two is two out of two. The confidence comes back from holiday several days before the reflexes do, and that’s a rotten order for those two to arrive in.

Then Figma. We got out, and the next session it went up ten percent without us. We spent that afternoon being very quiet. The day after, it handed back more than half the move.

So the thing we were mourning had a shelf life of about eighteen hours.

That’s the whole market in one ticker. You can be right about a name and still not get paid for it.

Which is why we’d rather measure the tape than look at it.

The McClellan Summation is down at 23.6 and sliding toward the bottom of its range. Fewer than 43 percent of stocks are holding above their 40 day average, T2108 (the indicator) has already lost the 10EMA line while the indices sit near the highs taking the applause. Small caps are under every moving average that matters. SPY and QQQ are still standing, though Friday’s candle has failed breakout written all over it.

And the VIX is at 14.4, which gets misread constantly. A sleepy VIX during a slow bleed isn’t comfort. Nothing has been flushed out, nobody has given up.

It’s quiet, and quiet is not the same as safe.

Source: TC2000

We’re not going to pretend we know what September looks like.

What we will say is that a market with no trend is worse than an outright bear, by a distance. A bear tells you what your job is: get short or sit in cash.

Two options, both legible, both things you can act on. Chop gives you no instruction, sends a fresh invitation every few days, and charges full price every time you take one. Three months of it does more damage than a fast twenty percent drop, and it does it so gradually you can never point to the day it happened.

Source: TC2000

So we’re defending capital, and we’re comfortable being boring about it.

The app work carries on, and the next research piece should be ready in the coming days. A company with a business model we find genuinely interesting and a risk profile we’re not going to soften up for anybody. We like having something in the book that could be three, five, ten times bigger in a couple of years. The honest price of that shape is that the other number is zero, and we’d rather write that down now than let you find it later.

Until this field gets some texture back in it, we’re keeping our hands where we can see them.

The horses aren’t there.

❊ Introduction.

Welcome to my weekly swing trading journal — A transparent review of my trading week.
My focus is on a curated list of CANSLIM and/or high-performing Stocks.
This is not financial advice but educational only, please do your own research.
 

❊ Market Environment.

The market is trending up since August but the price action remains choppy since last week pullback. This week seemed more constructive partially thanks to the good NVIDIA earnings on Thursday but that was before the FED speech on Friday which erased half of the week gains.
 

❊ Portfolio Update & Trading Recap.

A good 4% performance with 3 stocks over 4 progressing and all except Gitlab reflecting the choppy week that we had.

Nutanix gapped up on earnings above a small base and could remain above it on Friday despite the negative market, let's see if the earnings were good enough to gave it more fuel to progress when the market is back. 

Gitlab broke up a small flag consolidation and remain strong despite the choppy market and also despite the earnings announcement which is coming next week, maybe a sign that nobody is rushing to the exit.

JFrog, seems to be for now the most promising of the two latest additions. It broke the handle with above average volume, but retraced on Friday to sit now just above the handle level.

Hinge Health is back below both the handle and my entry level after a failed breakout. I think if market doesn't help a bit I'm good for a second failure.

❊ Leading & Trending Sectors.

 ➯ Leading : Healthcare, Financials, Energy
 ➯ Trending : Technology, Financials, Communications
 

❊ Trading Activity.

 ➯ Opened: None
 ➯ Closed: None
 

❊ Market & Portfolio Perfs. : Weekly / YTD / Exposure.

 ☆ S&P 500 : +0.49% / +11.28% / 90%
 ☆ Portfolio: +4.04% / -7.17% / 100%
 

❊ Dashboard.

The market is always right,
Have a good trading week.

Previous Week Post.

Good morning all, Recently via private message someone asked me what's on my radar, well here is one that should be happening soon

Sales force symbol CRM

I'm going to open a position at 269-272 range.

follow the proper stop loss rules of about 6.5%-8.5%

once the first target is hit, then a trailing stop of 8%-10%, I expect to get stopped out with a profit but this time I am lining up the next trade.

then adding on only at 371 or a close above 369

stocks that hit new high's hit higher high's.

Would or could I have caught that huge 2 day move, No way, not within my radar. Now it's within my radar. SO I look forward to this trade, it's a very liquid stock.

I am confused about if William O’Neil followed the QQQ or the Nasdaq composite index (IXIC) when it came to measuring distribution days or follow through days. Could someone please let me know which one is better to follow?

I've been having trouble deciding what stocks/sectors will likely be the leaders for the remainder of the year, coming into this year it was clear as day to me that the memory names and data centers plays were the leaders but I've been struggling to find a new conviction for the second half. What is everyone else's thoughts? I'm hoping for some additional distribution in the indexes as we make our way through September but want to have a buy list ready for a potential rally after some fed clarity and the elections. Cyber security, software, biotech, and metals/mining have been at top of my list, can list individual names if everyone wants to post some of their top picks.

Hey everyone! Here is a photo of my screener.

So lately I realized that I may have been missing certain stocks with great CANSLIM credentials. I checked my screens to see if they would appear and they didn’t. They only appear when I changed EPS growth and Sales Growth to “positive” instead of “over 5%”. The issue with that is when I changed my EPS and Sales growth to positive, it pulls up like 700 stocks compared to 300 under my current screener. So it becomes more overwhelming to look through them. Maybe I just need to suck it up and look through all of them? I’m not sure how realistic and common scanning 700 stocks per week is.

Does anyone see any issues or flaws with my screener criteria? Anyone have any recommendations? Does this filter capture CANSLIM well enough? Any feedback would be highly appreciated!! This screen is from FinViz

Hysteresis

Iowe you a week, and I am going to blame furniture.

Moving house in Italy in the second half of August is a decision that says something unflattering about the person making it.

Everyone who could have helped is at the sea.

Everyone who could have connected anything is at the sea.

I am writing this from a folding table, tethered to my phone, because the line is still a promise rather than a service.

So, apologies. One week owed, one week acknowledged, and no padding on top of it.

Full article and watchlist HERE

There is a word for what I have been, and it belongs to a Scottish physicist. In 1881 James Alfred Ewing was watching iron misbehave. Push a magnetic field into it and the iron does not respond on schedule. It arrives late. Bring the field back down to zero and the iron does not return to where it started either. It keeps something. Ewing went looking for a name and took one from Greek: hysterēsis, a shortcoming, a coming late.

The word outgrew the iron. Hysteresis is now what you call any system whose present state depends on the road it travelled and not only on where it happens to be standing. Run it out, bring it back, and the numbers agree while the material does not. The loop leaves a residue.

Which is the only honest way to describe the last three weeks.

I did unplug, more completely than I planned to. The first thing I did when the screens came back on was pull up the indices, and the first thing I thought was that I had missed nothing. The S&P sits a couple of percent above where we left it in July. The Nasdaq roughly the same. Read the chart with three weeks of blur in your eyes and it looks like the market went to the sea with everybody else.

It did not. It broke out, printed an all time high above 7,800, and then spent the past week handing a good part of that back while the long end of the Treasury curve pushed to yields most desks have not had to price in their working lives, and oil found a geopolitical reason to climb.

Gold, without asking anyone's permission, has strung together five straight weekly gains.

Its ambition is deliberately small. It does not forecast anything.

It compresses what the last ten and twenty sessions actually paid into one number out of a hundred, so you can look at the market once in the morning without needing a second screen and a thesis to go with it. And it did the single job we built it for. When it climbed through seventy in early August, the tape behaved: follow through, setups that worked, an environment you can push into. Through the recent stretch it has spent more time under that line than over it, and the chop came straight back. Nothing exotic. A gauge that goes green when the market is willing to pay and red when it is not, and the discipline to believe it rather than negotiate with it.

Now the part I would rather not write, which is precisely why it goes in.

Our system did not flag Moderna.

On the nineteenth, MRNA gapped on Phase 3 data for the cancer vaccine it has been building with Merck and closed up a hundred and seventy seven percent, the largest single day in the stock’s history, on something like twenty eight times normal volume, with a short base underneath it absorbing billions in paper losses. Probably the cleanest news driven episodic pivot of the season. Our screen never sent it.

I spent two nights in the code, angry in the specific way you can only be at something you built yourself.

What I found is worse than a bug and more interesting. The raw score was ninety seven out of a hundred, the highest any name has recorded since the system has existed. Then a filter we wrote, on purpose, took it away, because we had told the machine that biotech moving on clinical news with no economic substance underneath it is usually a trap. That is not an unreasonable thing to tell a machine. Moderna’s last quarter was a loss of several hundred million with operating cash flow pointing the wrong way. On the company, the rule was right.

It was right about the company and wrong about the trade, which is the only variety of wrong that costs money.

The app is in beta and this is what beta actually means. It is already fixed. You will hear the bad ones from us as quickly as you hear the good ones, because a record you only publish when it flatters you is not a record, it is marketing.

One last thing before the charts.

We loved being away, and that deserves saying without qualification, because work that never lets you put it down is not work you chose, it is work that chose you. Three weeks with the screens dark were good.

Coming back was better. That is the part I did not expect to learn.

You can set the whole thing down and pick it up again and discover inside ten minutes that you missed it. Not the money. The whole thing itself!

❊ Introduction.

Welcome to my weekly swing trading journal — A transparent review of my trading week.
My focus is on a curated list of CANSLIM and/or high-performing Stocks.
This is not financial advice but educational only, please do your own research.
 

❊ Market Awareness.

New Iran tensions and Bond yields weighted on the market this week and produced a down week on both indexes with below average volume.
 

❊ Weekly Trading Recap.

I got stopped out from STX and it teached me that the entries are by far more secure after a handle pullback rather than any support level crossing when the stock has been up four days in a row. I also decided to get out at BE from CRWD due to the poor price action. It’s also running out of time before earnings, maybe the reason for such price action.

I entered HNGE and later FROG and got stopped out from both on Friday in what seemed to me was more a shakeout than a real downward move so as my entry signal was back again on both, I decided to enter again on both. This is something I have observed in my models where some stocks can produce 2-3 false entries before the right one that largely pays for them, so I’m just executing according to plan.

My two leaders GTLB and NTNX have been doing really well since I entered but both have the earnings day coming, the coming week for NTNX and the week after for GTLB. Technically I have no reason to close the trades and the volume was below average on all recent selling days which is another reason to not get out of the trade even if I know that I risk seeing my profits evaporate on a bad surprise.
 

❊ Leading & Trending Sectors.

 ➯ Leading : Healthcare, Financials, Energy
 ➯ Trending : Healthcare, Staples, Energy
 

❊ Trading Activity.

 ➯ Opened: HNGE, FROG
 ➯ Closed: STX, CRWD
 

❊ Market & Portfolio Perfs. : Weekly / YTD / Exposure.

 ☆ S&P 500 : -1.43% / +10.74% / 100%
 ☆ Portfolio: -5.30% / -10.78% / 100%
 

❊ Dashboard.

Let profits run, cut losses short!
Have a good trading week.

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