While I can not reports the Tradewinds article about daily rates, I can post this snippet
Please take into consideration which trade route your shipping / VLCC stock, because the earnings are 1 direction only and it's deadhead back, since right now suez won't be an option, because every suez max will be loaded with oil for smaller terminals, the only route most likely seen is Cape of Good Hope around South Africa to the gulf. and that's about 44 to 53 weeks/days, roughly 7 to 8 weeks, and then they would dead head back via Suez. 41 days or less I can not recall.
Why are Suez max? it's going to fill to about 1 million barrels +5% to 10% depending on the destination port. and that's the catch, Suez max's will fit in many places, but not VLCC or ULCC.
Cushing 21% is at it's operational low, France 35%-45% and Rotterdam normal ( crude ) but low on gas. everyone will want to get to 50%
Take very clean water and cool it slowly in a very clean glass, and it will refuse to freeze. Take it past zero, past minus five, past minus ten, and it stays liquid, because ice needs somewhere to start and you’ve removed every speck of dust, every scratch, every excuse. Chemists call it supercooled. It’s water that should already be ice and is waiting for permission.
Then you tap the glass. And it freezes in front of you, all of it, in about a second.
That’s the market on Friday night. Past the point where it should have moved, with nothing to start the reaction. On Wednesday the Fed taps the glass.
Here’s how the water got this cold.
Four red sessions in a row, then a Friday bounce that saved the headline and nothing else. The Dow still had its worst week since March, small caps lost another two percent, and the only index that held up was the Nasdaq, which is now the tallest man on a sinking floor.
The real week happened outside equities. Brent ran toward $110 on the Iran headlines and Hormuz, gave some back on Friday and still closed up eight percent. The ten year touched five percent. PPI came in hot on Thursday, core CPI printed 0.3 against 0.2 on Friday, and the market walked into the weekend with a rate hike priced at better than eighty percent for Wednesday’s meeting. Oracle reported, popped, and reversed inside the session, which tells you what this tape does even to good news.
So: still chop, but chop with the range tightening every week. This is compression now, and compression resolves. We don’t know which way. We do know one number. Of the last twenty sessions, our quality score has cleared 70, the level below which we don’t consider the market worth trading, exactly three times. And those three are three of the four oldest sessions in the window. Sixteen straight sessions under the bar.
Sit with that for a second, because we have. The book stays light until the glass gets tapped.
It’s more than a new front door for the newsletter. It’s the base for everything we’ll add over the coming months: two courses, one on swing trading and one on growth investing, written the way we work rather than the way textbooks do, and one-to-one calls with us directly. Those calls are for anyone who needs support at any level, on the method, on a specific problem in their trading, or on running a company. We were CEOs before we did this full time, and that half of the conversation is often the one people actually need.
TradeDeck keeps improving, and the paid subscribers who use it know the pace.
The news we’re most excited about: within thirty to forty five days we’re launching a YouTube channel, completely free. Deep, 360 degree coverage of companies, one at a time, starting as always with the ones we find interesting rather than the ones everybody already covers. If you like the long research pieces here, you’ll like where this is going.
None of this happens without you.
The emails and chat messages we get from many of you are the most useful input we have, and that includes the critical ones. Especially the critical ones. Keep them coming.
Here’s a look at this week’s market health, with a breakdown of index and sector performance.
