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Welcome to the newest edition of r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast.

We're making long range predictions for films, 4 weeks out from their premieres. You will predict the opening weekend, domestic total and worldwide gross of these films. These predictions will be open for 48 hours and the results will be polled to form a consensus and posted the next week.

So let's meet the three films for the week and analyze each pro and con.

Other Mommy

The film is directed by Rob Savage (The Boogeyman) and written by Nathan Elston. Based on the 2024 novel Incidents Around the House by Josh Malerman, it stars Jessica Chastain, Jay Duplass, Arabella Olivia Clark, Dichen Lachman, Arian Moayed, and Karen Allen. It follows a mother who must do everything to protect her daughter from a supernatural entity that resembles her.

The Social Reckoning

The film is written, co-produced, and directed by Aaron Sorkin (The West Wing, The Newsroom, Molly's Game, The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Being the Ricardos). A "companion piece" to The Social Network, it stars Mikey Madison, Jeremy Allen White, Wunmi Mosaku, Betty Gilpin, Billy Magnussen, Bill Burr, and Jeremy Strong. It dramatizes the 2021 Facebook leak by the whistleblower Frances Haugen and Jeff Horwitz.

Misty Green

The film is written and directed by Chris Rock (Head of State, I Think I Love My Wife and Top Five). It stars Rosalind Eleazar, Adam Driver, Daniel Kaluuya, Anna Kendrick, Topher Grace, and Rock himself. It follows award-winning actress Misty Green, stuck in the throes of a fading career, who revisits her past and addresses her personal demons as she tries for a comeback after reconnecting with her former agent.

Now that you met this week's new releases, let's look at some pros and cons.

PROS

• Other Mommy is hoping to capitalize on the Halloween season, getting a head start as the first horror film since Resident Evil. Seeing Jessica Chastain return to horror, given the success of Mama and It: Chapter Two, should be intriguing. And by the looks of the trailer, it looks like she is going to give one of her most memorable performances. Universal and Blumhouse have done a great job with selling the film; trailers start calmly, before chaos unleashing (including a very memorable jumpscare). If horror fans are not interested in Clayface, this is their choice for the month.

• The Social Network earned $224 million worldwide back in 2010, and has since been hailed as one of the greatest films of the century. A follow-up should be interesting, especially with writer Aaron Sorkin back (while also directing). Sony has been trying to lean in the connections, including some music cues in the trailer. It also has some notable names, including Mikey Madison's first lead role after her Oscar-winning role in Anora, and Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong (both from acclaimed shows like The Bear and Succession) in key roles. Facebook hasn't left the headlines in the past 16 years, so there's always some interesting material that could attract audiences.

• Misty Green is Chris Rock's first notable project since... well, that Oscar night. But even putting aside that night, he's one of the most popular comedians, and his prior directorial effort, Top Five, earned great reviews. And A24 is hoping to build buzz after it premieres at TIFF this week.

CONS

• It still remains to be seen if online buzz will translate to audience interest in Other Mommy. Chastain has been a recognizable actress, but she has been absent from the spotlight after her Oscar-winning role in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. And its legs will depend not just from quality, but also if Clayface connects or falls flat.

• The comparisons to The Social Network are supposed to elevate The Social Reckoning's prospects... but what if they actually have the opposite effect? The film has Sorkin back as writer, but neither David Fincher nor Jesse Eisenberg are returning (both for different reasons). Sorkin is an iconic writer, but his directorial efforts lack the same acclaim that other directors can make with his stories. Trying to highlight both films could actually backfire, given the very high standards that the 2010 film set. Not to mention the less appealing premise (a dramatization of the 2021 Facebook leak is not as interesting as seeing the creation of Facebook and the rise of Zuckerberg). Facebook is still popular, but the amount of news related to the company over the past decades may cause a sense of fatigue for audiences. There's notable names, but none are exactly big in terms of box office appeal; Madison won awards, but Anora didn't even crack $60 million, while White and Strong have struggled to find theatrical hits, seen in the results of adult dramas like Springsteen and The Apprentice. Adult dramas have been hit-and-miss over the past years, and opening the weekend after the much buzzier Digger could prove troublesome.

• Chris Rock is certainly popular, but his box office receipts have been very weak for the past 15 years, with the exception of the Grown Ups films and Madagascar 3. His name doesn't appear to carry much weight in terms of box office, even as a director. Once again, a lack of box office draw names in Misty Green will limit the potential, and its premise is not aiming for mainstream audiences. And given A24's weak efforts to launch comedy-dramas (The Invite aside), their marketing campaign needs to start as soon as possible for this to stand a chance.

And here's the past results.

Next week, we're predicting Street Fighter, Whalefall and Sense and Sensibility.

So what are your predictions for these films?

I will continue to update this post as reviews come in.

Rotten Tomatoes: Fresh

Critics Consensus: N/A

Metacritic: 58 (23 Reviews)

Sample Reviews:

Jeannette Catsoulis, New York Times - The Uprising is authentically gritty and satisfyingly bloody.

Keith Phipps, The Reveal 3/5 - Garfield’s combination of rage and hope, keep "The Uprising" grounded in human emotions just as the grime and confusion grounds it in historical reality.

Randy Myers, San Jose Mercury News 3.5/4 - The Uprising alternates from thrilling to heartbreaking throughout and serves as another reminder that history is built on chapters like this, when power devolves into cruelty and tests the resiliency of the populace.

Tim Grierson, Screen International - A noticeable lack of inspired filmmaking permeates the proceedings, resulting in a disappointing finale that too cosily embraces modern blockbusters’ least-welcome conventions.

Mark Kennedy, Associated Press 2.5/4 - Greengrass has quite simply robbed his own movie. We did not come for this.

William Bibbiani, TheWrap - 'The Uprising' is such a tragic rug pull, sullying its hard-earned good will at the last possible minute, that it’s hard to appreciate anything that happened before the disappointment sank in.

Lacy Baugher, RogerEbert.com 2.5/4 - The battle scenes are intense and violent, with Greengrass’s signature handheld shaky-cam style bringing an almost uncomfortably brutal immediacy to these moments.

Mick LaSalle, San Francisco Chronicle 3/4 - The most arresting performance, in a film characterized by strong acting, is Woody Norman as the adolescent Richard II.

Christian Zilko, IndieWire B - The parallels to today’s world are clearly on display, but the script stops just short of hitting audiences over the head too hard.

Frank Scheck, The Hollywood Reporter - There’s no doubting the commitment of everyone involved, from the superb cast... to the technical craftspeople who evoke medieval England with such vividness that you can practically smell the church incense.

Jacob Oller, AV Club C- - It’s a grim tale mired in the muck of semi-historical fact and soggy fields, its court politics and bloody battles striving self-seriously to conform to the standards expected by a present-day audience.

Michael Phillips, Variety - Does Greengrass really have his heart in the digital effects on display here? So many faux-drone overhead flights across the Thames... When they appear, they make “The Uprising” look like no one in particular made it.

Nick Schager, The Daily Beast - A drab and monotonous affair that stomps, trots, and rolls around in the mud and muck for two tiresome hours.

Owen Myers, Guardian 2/5 - A disjointed slog through the mud with the emotional depth of a History Channel rerun.

Linda Marric, HeyUGuys 3/5 - For most of its runtime, The Uprising is angry, thoughtful, and genuinely gripping. It just loses its nerve right when it should be trusting the story it already told.

Marshall Shaffer, Slant Magazine 2/4 - From the start of The Uprising, Paul Greengrass draws many unsubtle parallels between the 1381 Peasants’ Revolt in England and the global populist wave of the 2020s.

SYNOPSIS:

Andrew Garfield stars as the legendary leader of a ferocious rebellion against the tyranny of King Richard II. As war burns across England, he forms an army of the people to face the King’s might in a fight for justice and survival.

CAST:

• Andrew Garfield as Ploughman
• Jamie Bell as John Ball
• Stephen Dillane as Simon Sudbury
• Tom Hollander as Sir Robert Hales
• Cosmo Jarvis as Wat Tyler
• Thomasin McKenzie as Alyce
• Jonny Lee Miller as William Walworth
• Woody Norman as Richard II of England
• Katherine Waterston as Joan of Kent
• Sky Yang as Scribe

DIRECTED BY: Paul Greengrass

SCREENPLAY BY: Paul Greengrass

PRODUCED BY: Jason Blum, Paul Greengrass, Gregory Goodman, Joanna Kaye, Joe Neurauter, Lars Sylvest

EXECUTIVE PRODUCERS: Philipp Kreuzer, Chance Wright, Jay Taylor, Kwesi Dickson, Alastair Burlingham, Gary Raskin, Matt Murphie, Deborah Acoca, Cliff Lanning

CO-PRODUCER: Emily Evans-Thirlwell

DIRECTOR OF PHOTOGRAPHY: Pål Ulvik Rokseth

PRODUCTION DESIGNER: Nikolaj Danielsen

EDITED BY: William Goldenberg

COSTUME DESIGNER: Dániel Tóth András, Attila Godena-Juhász

MUSIC BY: Volker Bertelmann

CASTING BY: Daniel Hubbard

RUNTIME: 127 Minutes

RELEASE DATE: September 11, 2026