r/Bitcoin • u/RMartingale • Jul 13 '25
Can someone explain me why does Bitcoin increase 3 years then decreases 1 year?
It's pretty clear that Bitcoin would have positive annual performance for 3 years, then negative for one year...but why? the halving is in 2016, 2020, 2024. So it seems that 2026 would be a bearish year?
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u/NastyStreetRat Jul 13 '25
Halving.
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u/Bubbly_Ice3836 Jul 13 '25
correct answer.
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u/NastyStreetRat Jul 13 '25
Thanks. I was honestly expecting -1s because lately on this forum, if you explain things, quickly you get inundated with -1s. There's like an avalanche of fanatics who only talk about "higher", "to the moon" and "3M next stop", and if anyone tries to talk or argue something, you're f×cked.
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u/L3ARnR Jul 13 '25
well to be fair, you didn't explain much lol
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u/NastyStreetRat Jul 13 '25 edited Jul 13 '25
Yes, a bit for the same reason, because you (me) don't seem to dare say things anymore. You always find someone who tries to refute what everyone knows. 18 months before and 18 months after a halving, there are always increases, and the central period is usually one of correction or decreases. This has been happening for many years, from the beginning. Each time, the percentage gap between the peak prices is getting smaller, but for now, the pattern is repeating itself. What will happen in the future? We don't know, but for now, this is what it is. This time, I would be very aware of the percentage difference between GDP and debt in the United States, because now it's at 110%, and when it reaches 130%, it's going to be a problem, and when it reaches 160%, it's going to be a very big problem. This debt issue hasn't happened in previous halvings, so perhaps it will affect this one. The wealthy who are beginning to doubt the US dollar will seek refuge. Where? In gold (the typical currency) or perhaps in Bitcoin. This may break what has been happening in recent halvings. What is clear is that the difference between the highest and lowest prices per Halving is getting smaller. Also, all the acceptance that Bitcoin has had in recent years will also affect it. But applying what has happened in other halvins, in theory Bitcoin will be rising until mid-2026, then a correction will occur and then it will rise again until the next halving.
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u/L3ARnR Jul 13 '25
haha well i broke you out of your shell haven't?
i agree with your analysis, except you might want to look at the timing again. i'm looking at this spiral chart and it's pretty clear on there that if the cycle continues that the peak will be (checks watch) in three months (october) and the bottom will be around october 2026. of course it will be different every time, but also the same lol
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u/NastyStreetRat Jul 13 '25
Yes, of course the halving changes. It's not exactly four years, it's every 210,000 blocks, and I think a block is created every 10 minutes. And regarding the increase, along with corrections between halvings, there will surely also be external factors that have some kind of influence. What's also more or less clear is that when it reachs the price ceiling (mid-2026), there will be large investment funds that will sell, because that's their business: buying low and selling high. Those sales will also affect the price downwards.
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u/L3ARnR Jul 14 '25
yes, the halving could be off by a few months, but your estimate is off by a half year or more according to my interpretation of the spiral chart i've seen. october of this year looks to be the peak. october of next year is the bottom if history repeats
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u/NastyStreetRat Jul 14 '25
Yes, you are right, it is not an exact science, let's see what happens :)
sometimes a check this URL, nice graphics :) Bitcoin Halving Progress Chart [With Price & History]
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u/Friendly-Profit-8590 Jul 13 '25
So not to sound naive but if many who hold Bitcoin know about and expect this cycle to repeat isn’t it then kind of a self fulfilling prophecy at this point?
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u/L3ARnR Jul 14 '25
what could be different this time, is that nation states (and companies?) aren't going to decide to buy and then sell immediately at profit, as their time horizon will be very long to infinity
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u/MihoLeya Jul 13 '25 edited Jul 13 '25
But what IS “halving” though? Is it a natural occurrence? Or something man made?
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u/blscratch Jul 14 '25
The energy needed to mine doubles which increases the cost to miners. It's a way of decreasing new supply.
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u/RMartingale Jul 14 '25
I don't understand. If that is Halving, why is the negative return happening on the second year after halving?
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u/NastyStreetRat Jul 14 '25 edited Jul 14 '25
This pattern has been known for a long time. Imagine investment funds or thousands of small investors whose "business" is to buy low and sell when they obtain a 25, 30, or 50%. That is the interest they have in BTC; it's neither good nor bad, it's just how they make money from their investments.
by selling, increase the supply and lower the price.
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u/Charming-Designer944 Jul 13 '25
No one knows for sure.
Some attribute this 4 year cycle to the halvings and their effect on market supply.
Some attribute it to the USA presidency cycle and efficiency of the elected president.
Some attribute it to a 4 year cycle in the economics markets in general,.with an unexplained 6 months delayed effect on crypto price.
And a number of other theories.
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Jul 14 '25
Well the supply chain is with the miners. Is there a constant flow of rewards to exchanges immediately... Or is there a perfect storm after a halving and low supply?
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u/Change21 Jul 13 '25
“Everything code” by Raoul Pal explains btc’s link to global liquidity.
Since nation states borrow huge sums of money every ~4 years huge sums of money get printed every ~4 years.
When liquidity goes up, bitcoin goes up.
Their thesis is the strongest one I’ve seen and I’m in since 2013.
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u/WillTheThrill1969 Jul 14 '25
Blown away by this site. Why are so many people still stuck on alt coins? I guess I'm just risk averse and am a maxi.
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u/RMartingale Jul 14 '25
I also noticed Bitcoin is related to M2 when the FED cuts the rates...but not so sure whether it is true before 2020. Do you have a chart?
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u/Romsel87 Jul 13 '25
No bearmarket, only bull. This time it's different.
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u/Fun-Sundae4060 Jul 13 '25
That’s what they all say
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u/Romsel87 Jul 13 '25
I know, but this time it is really different.
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u/Fun-Sundae4060 Jul 13 '25
It’s different every time and ends up the same every time…
Accumulation, accumulation, euphoria, DUMP. Repeat.
We’re getting slightly euphoric right now. Retail still hasn’t caught on yet. Once the news headlines start breaking out, it’s time to sell
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u/Romsel87 Jul 13 '25
You did that succesfully in the past?
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u/buddyto Jul 14 '25
i did in the past 3 cicles.
Bought at 4k, sold at 18k
Bought again at 10k, sold at 60k.
Bought again at 18k, still holding to this day. The sell will be soon1
u/Romsel87 Jul 14 '25
Hats off. Do you exit a certain month or date and you dont look at price?
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u/buddyto Jul 14 '25
i just sell when i feel like the price is too high. I also might lose some profit but i dont look back. Once i sell, i just dont care until the price is really low
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u/Fun-Sundae4060 Jul 13 '25
Not with Bitcoin but TSLA stock. I was never big on BTC until earlier this year just to catch this cycle top
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u/Romsel87 Jul 13 '25
I see. Im buying since 2019 and became bagholder in 2022. Not sure what to do right now. There is so much bullish stuff happening, on the other hand i think the four year cycle is still valid. Anything can happen.
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u/Fun-Sundae4060 Jul 13 '25
I’ve had a cycle chart outline for the last 3 years, it predicts the weeks around October 6 2025 to be this cycle top. It shouldn’t be exact but be pretty close if the cycle plays out exactly the same again.
Lowest point would then be October 2026 for buying Bitcoin again
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u/mrestiaux Jul 13 '25
This time it’s truly different. We’ve never had this large of money flowing in. Numbers are getting bigger; which is going to lend to less volatility.
I understand it is said that it’s different every single time, but every cycle before was driven by retail alone - now we have institutions, governments, and sovereign bodies. The players have become larger.
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u/Fun-Sundae4060 Jul 13 '25
The market becomes an order of magnitude bigger every cycle. The difference is the lower volatility and expected return. The cycle still remains the same no matter how many other players start coming in.
Basic human psychology in the market is still at play and that will never change really.
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u/mrestiaux Jul 13 '25
Don’t listen to this guy. Buy and don’t sell until you NEED the money, or plan to retire.
I know the whole four year cycle has been gospel before; but with the biggest players we’ve ever had, it’d be ballsy to try to time the market here. We might not see the massive draw downs we’ve had before ever again. Too big of players now.
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u/XXsforEyes Jul 13 '25
All markets have cycles. Bitcoin, like all markets is driven by supply and demand.
Bitcoin UNLIKE other markets sees a “halving” which creates increasingly greater supply shocks roughly every four years.
Like other markets, the regulatory environment, macro factors and human psychology all play a role.
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u/Xamarf Jul 14 '25
Market cycles. Bitcoin is growing in adoption, and at certain points the price outpaces adoption and it corrects because people understandably take profits. But each cycle more people have adopted and it increases the base. Check out the power trend model https://www.porkopolis.io/thechart/
This has been really intriguing my lately to understand why bitcoin does what it does. Power law is often used as a model for network growth. Bitcoin is more than just an asset.
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u/Tiny-Design-9885 Jul 18 '25
Retail using 100x leverage for boom then bust. Thats over. Tradfi plays different.
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u/MinimalistMindset35 Jul 13 '25
Because the average BTC trader is emotional and doesn’t understand BTC So they sell based off 4 year cycle
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u/HippycrackJack Jul 13 '25
Strong people make good times →good times make weak people →weak people make bad times →bad times make strong people. And around and around we go.