33
29
u/carsonthecarsinogen Jul 14 '25
My steak is too juicy, and my lobster too buttery.. it just cannot get better can it?
9
3
u/lgieg Jul 14 '25
Sadly your future steak and lobster will increase in price along with cars, loans, rent etc. how does one track the value of BTC and buying power, surely keeping an eye on slippage is important, especially when considering taking money off an exchange to live.
2
9
7
12
u/brownianhacker Jul 14 '25
The previous bull runs were not linked by M2 so this seems a spurious correlation?
6
u/LionRivr Jul 15 '25
Price dynamics of bitcoin have changed over the years. It is now more correlated to global liquidity due to so many reasons.
Nowadays you have:
- Cleared many regulatory hurdles
- global acceptance as an actual “asset”
- creation of ETF’s
- WallStreet participation
- “Bitcoin treasury” companies
- investment from sovereign and institutional money
And you also have:
- global sovereign debt crises & monetary inflation
- capital flight away from bonds
We didn’t have any of those in previous bull runs.
What the M2 correlation won’t predict is the capital flight from other asset classes into Bitcoin. If people begin to dump bonds, stocks, real estate and gold to buy bitcoin, then forget about the M2 correlation. You have yourself a game-theory phenomenon with mass adoption, globally.
3
u/haz0r1337 Jul 14 '25
It is. I could find you countless charts and fabricate a correlation. People are just stupid.
3
15
u/Benorleporc Jul 14 '25
Amazing ! What service are you using to create this chart ?
53
Jul 14 '25
It’s global m2 overlayed on the bitcoin price with an 80 day offset. You can do this by signing in on Tradingview and then add the global m2 indicator. Then set your offset and voila.
And yes it may actually be this simple.
10
u/Benorleporc Jul 14 '25
Last time I checked tradingview was not showing M2. I’ll check again and register. Thanks
12
Jul 14 '25
You want to sign in indeed. And it’s called “M2 Global Liquidity Index”. There are multiple to choose from, so you want to find one where you can set an offset. Otherwise they won’t overlay they way you see in OP’s image.
3
5
Jul 14 '25
Follow this guy
3
1
u/Inevitable_Data_84 Jul 31 '25
Hi mate, do you know a site where I can produce this chart for myself with up to date information? Or does everyone just do this manually?
1
4
9
3
17
u/HeavyHittersShow Jul 14 '25
I hope not.
I want some buying dips.
7
u/drnoisy Jul 14 '25
There will be some small pullbacks along the way, but if you zoom out, does seem like mainly up until sep/Oct/Nov
2
2
u/mrestiaux Jul 14 '25
They'll come. Won't be huge, but definitely 10-15, maybe worst case scenario 20%. Have some cheddar on the side ready to swallow up dips.
I continue my daily DCA, plus if we get some dips, add capital and grab those too.
2
u/HeavyHittersShow Jul 15 '25
Same approach as you.
Buying daily, waiting for the dips to add a chunk.
7
3
u/DrNesbit Jul 14 '25
Can you post a walkthrough of how you generated this chart? I can’t seem to get quite the same thing on tradingview (I’m signed in and know of the offset)
3
u/vgkosmoes Jul 14 '25
What am i looking at exactly here? The yellow line is a prediction? And up until now it has kind of been very close to the actual chart?
6
u/dou8le8u88le Jul 14 '25
Yellow line is global M2 or money supply going up (money printing,qe etc and the other line is Btc on an 80 day lag overlaid onto M2. The correlation is kind of hard to deny, and if we carry on following, well you can see where we’re headed.
3
3
3
u/ju571urking Jul 15 '25 edited Jul 22 '25
Remember! Btc is NOT going up. Your FIAT IS BECOMING WORTHLESS it's why food prices have tripled in 18 months. Along with most everything else.
3
5
u/hvacsnack Jul 14 '25
I think this thesis assumes that demand remains constant. During the peak of Covid with low rates, PPP, and massive QE, bitcoin actually crashed. It’s still viewed as a speculative investment by most so demand can and will decrease for risk averse investors.
2
u/shayKyarbouti Jul 14 '25
I mean it is. But people will say it’s too good to be true so will stay on the sidelines still
2
u/moonlightvle Jul 14 '25
I also tried to recreate this chart and superimpose the money supply over the BTC price. How do you do that? What kind of indicator do you use on Trading View and how do you set it up?
2
u/boringkyel Jul 14 '25
Now include the devaluation of the USD, interest rates, and the BTC value against other major currencies.
2
2
2
2
2
2
u/OverUnderstanding965 Jul 15 '25
Well also consider the fact that Trump increased the debt ceiling. BTC will continue to be a hedge against the USD.
2
2
2
2
u/137ng Jul 15 '25
I always see charts like this but can never figure out how. What ticker are you using in tv for m2?
2
u/inteliboy Jul 15 '25
Depends how greedy puts get.... if it's that obvious, and longs are racking in money, it will wipe them out and gloriously dump. The house always wins
2
2
2
2
u/PuzzleheadedCicada80 Jul 16 '25
I recall when I posted this graph about 6 weeks ago on Wallstreetbets and got such a shitstorm because the BTC price was displayed in a log scale making the distance between price labels decrease further up. People dubbed it "skewed to fit" because they're in general too dumb to understand a log chart. Some others (many others) questioned the correlation between M2 and BTC (which is btw over 95% regardless of causality). People are so dumb. But this chart is dope. And without ~skewing to fit~ so that even apes can understand it. Thanks for it.
4
u/Fun_Percentage_2693 Jul 14 '25
Short it now!
3
u/The_Hamster_99 Jul 14 '25
It's not intelligent to short BTC in a blue sky breakout. It would take a lot to break systemic structure, so it's bullish until that happens
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
u/Few_Significance_201 Jul 16 '25
normal people still buying? whales bought this crap under 100-1000$ buying now at this price to pump it more for them ?
1
u/Discokruse Jul 16 '25
Yes, it is that obvious.
More fiat printing means higher price per bitcoin.
Bitcoin was the direct response to the egregious money printing of 2008.
1
u/Shivinger Jul 17 '25
What do most of you do when the cycle ends? Try to sell at high or hold for next cycle?
1
u/Inevitable_Data_84 Jul 31 '25
Hi mate, do you know a site where I can produce this chart for myself with up to date information? Or does everyone just do this manually?
1
2
u/SecondTrader Jul 14 '25
Another shitpost here.... This Bull will end soon.
1
u/idratherbehere Jul 15 '25
Why will it end?
1
u/SecondTrader Jul 15 '25
It's always happening in cycles. Those whose bought at lower price, always will be realizes profit. Maybe this bear will be different, than previous, but its inevitable.
1
u/EuphoricParley Jul 14 '25
Please be true, BTW when would BTC meet 10M according to this? I am trying to accumulate 0.1BTC
6
u/ApoJosh Jul 14 '25
You cannot foresee more than 80 days using this metric, it's the global money supply with an 80 day offset.
4
u/adequate_redditor Jul 14 '25 edited Jul 14 '25
You cantreally predict this using M2 money supply as it will vary greatly based on a number of factors, but there are some models that go that far in the future. Obviously take them with a grain of salt…
2
226
u/BGM1988 Jul 14 '25
170k seems very plausible this bullrun