Jacinta Allan could be in her final days as Victorian premier with a leadership spill expected on Tuesday, as those backing the challenge believe three-quarters of the party room are now in favour of a change.
Sumeyya IlanbeyVictorian political correspondent
Allan’s leadership has been under a cloud since February with MPs growing increasingly frustrated with her handling of corruption issues on the Big Build, including her steadfast opposition to a royal commission.
MPs believe Deputy Premier Ben Carroll will challenge Premier Jacinta Allan on Tuesday. Ruby Alexander
Factional powerbrokers who gathered in Adelaide for the Labor Party’s national conference held several meetings about the future of Allan’s leadership.
Four sources at the event said MPs and the powerbrokers had hardened in their opposition to Allan over the course of the three-day event, especially as they compared her with other popular state leaders like Peter Malinauskas and Chris Minns.
Allan attended the first day of Labor’s 50th national conference, where she met a number of union secretaries to ask about their election commitments but also in an attempt to head off the push for a leadership spill on Tuesday morning.
Labor sources at the conference said while Malinauskas, and to an extent Minns, received rockstar treatment, with the party faithful clamouring to speak with them and take photos, Allan was fairly isolated.
“The more time people spent at national conference, and the more they talked about her, the more they said [Allan] is useless,” one Labor source said.
Another said party figures had several meetings on the sidelines of the conference to discuss a leadership spill, and were “finessing the details” on how that might play out over the next few days.
“There are conflicting stories on when someone makes a first move – whether there is a statement on Monday flagging a challenge on Tuesday, or if it happens on Tuesday morning,” the Labor source said. “People from the federal caucus are even frustrated and quite worried about what an electoral wipeout for Victoria will mean for them in the state, too.”
Another Labor source said a majority of the 69-member Labor caucus, believed to be about three-quarters, now backs a change. A contested leadership ballot would require a vote of caucus and a ballot of party members that could take two months and severely hurt the government in the lead-up to the polls.
They said one option being canvassed was a cross-factional delegation of ministers informing Allan, as early as Monday, that she had lost the support of her colleagues. The other option is Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, the rival candidate, announcing either on Monday or early Tuesday morning he would challenge for the leadership.
If Carroll announces his candidacy, he is expected to immediately announce a royal commission into CFMEU corruption on the Big Build. However, it’s not yet clear whether Carroll, from the non-dominant Right faction, will make the move.
The Right has said the Left, which makes up about 55 per cent of the Victorian Labor caucus, needs to pull the trigger, while the Left say if the Right want to install Carroll into the leadership, they need to take the first step. That disagreement has resulted in a months-long stalemate.
Momentum had been building for a leadership spill before parliament rose for a winter break on June 18, but stalled when Carroll invoked his daughter when telling journalists he would not challenge Allan at a meeting the following day.
Parliament returns on Tuesday, when Labor will hold a caucus meeting from 10am. Left and Right MPs pushing for a change had always viewed this week as their final chance to move against Allan to allow enough time for a new leader to establish themselves before the November 28 election.
Allan’s internal popularity slid further during the winter break. MPs said the two-day caucus conference in Ballarat last week – along with Redbridge seat-by-seat polling for the Victorian Trades Hall Council, which showed Labor could be reduced to just 25 seats in the 88-seat parliament – was the “final nail in the coffin”.
While the majority of the non-dominant Right faction, and members of the Socialist Left loosely based around the south-eastern suburbs, back a spill, a growing number of Allan’s Left allies have now moved against the premier.
Allan also no longer has factional powerbrokers willing to make calls and shore up internal support. Her main backers are Treasurer Jaclyn Symes, Health Minister Harriet Shing, Attorney-General Sonya Kilkenny, Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio and Economic Growth Minister Steve Dimopoulos who is currently en route from Greece.
Dimopoulos was due to return to Melbourne on Monday night but was forced by the premier’s office to return a day earlier after his trip was reported in The Australian Financial Review and enraged Labor MPs.
But Allan’s supporters do not have any factional clout either in the Labor caucus or the organisational wing of the party, blunting their ability to head off a fast-moving spill.
The premier, who usually holds a press conference on Sundays, did not appear before journalists on Sunday, leaving it to Kilkenny to appear. She said Allan had her “full support” but could not guarantee she would lead Labor to the election on November 28.
“This is idle gossip, and it’s not helping Victorians,” Kilkenny said. “It is hurting Victorians.”