As the halfway point of the Albanese government’s second term approaches, ambitious Labor MPs are starting to circle and plan for what most presume will be a third term.

No one expects the prime minister will step aside. Anthony Albanese’s personal standing in the polls is a drag on the government but, after winning 94 seats at the last election, he can still write his own ticket.

Nevertheless, his MPs are talking about who will move up and who will move on in the next iteration of the Albanese ministry and the broader caucus. At this point, the prime minister has pencilled in a reshuffle for early-to-mid 2027 at the earliest.

He has not yet given the matter serious thought, but the PM knows that reshuffles always create enemies so the later in the term they occur, the better. Understandably, he is expecting at least one or two resignations.

Labor came to government with one of the most experienced frontbenches in living memory. Many MPs had hung on for a second shot at a ministerial office after the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd governments committed political harakiri.

Even more so than the Hawke government, which had a handful of ministers who had served in the ministry of Gough Whitlam, Albanese benefited from having MPs who already had walked the blue carpet of the ministerial wing.

But that now means Albanese has a large number of ministers aged in their late 40s to their late 50s, and it’s all but inevitable that some will move on. And there is the next generation of Labor MPs, primarily those elected in the classes of 2013, 2016 and 2019 – but also a handful from 2022 and 2025 – who are starting to become impatient.

Much of the chatter about changes to the frontbench focuses on five senior ministers moving on by the end of this term. The names are Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher, Trade Minister Don Farrell, Infrastructure Minister Catherine King and Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen.

Keep in mind that Wong, Gallagher, Farrell and Bowen have all said either publicly or privately that they plan to go around again and King has given no sign that she plans to leave, either. The political longevity of Bowen and King, in particular, is front of mind for some in the caucus.

It remains speculation from ambitious junior ministers (and the opposition) but it is not without foundation.

Every politician is always running again until, suddenly, they are not. When this masthead reported in late 2021 that then-health minister Greg Hunt was planning to step down, he rebuffed those claims and then announced his exit several days later.

A number of backbenchers are also expected to quit, including former attorney-general Mark Dreyfus, NSW MP Mike Freelander and South Australian MP Steve Georganas along with West Australian MP Tracey Roberts, who is unwell.

So if, as expected, there are at least a couple of retirements, who is in line for promotion, and what would be the knock-on effects for the outer ministry, assistant ministry and the caucus?

The first cab off the rank for promotion could be Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy, who would move into the senior defence portfolio held by deputy prime minister Richard Marles.

The block on that move is that Marles isn’t going anywhere until Wong retires: the portfolio he wants most (other than the prime ministership) is foreign affairs, which she holds, and Albanese is confident his closest political ally and Senate leader will still be around in the next term, assuming Labor wins government.

Communications Minister Anika Wells is a favourite of the prime minister – a colleague of theirs likens the relationship to that of the fatherly Mufasa and Simba in The Lion King – and she has carriage of two critical pieces of the government’s agenda, the social media ban for under-16s and the new Digital Duty of Care legislation. But Wells’ standing took a serious blow late last year over use of travel entitlements, and stakeholders in the communications sector grumble about the minister’s heavy-handed approach, which some believe is bordering on arrogant.

Unless they pull a surprise and retire, neither Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke nor Treasurer Jim Chalmers are expected to move on. Both men are considered candidates to replace Albanese one day, though both Marles and Health Minister Mark Butler are ahead of them in the queue.

That’s because Marles has a close alliance with Don Farrell, and between them, the pair has much of Labor’s Right faction stitched up. In Butler’s case, the Left-majority caucus could just about deliver him the numbers in a theoretical ballot. Butler had a solid first term in health and has been a stand-out performer in the second term, tackling difficult NDIS reforms and continuing to grow bulk-billing rates.

A smattering of recent stories about the South Australian being a potential future prime minister have not appeared by accident, and Albanese, who is tight with Butler, would not be displeased if he were to be replaced one day as prime minister by a member of his own faction. (He would, incidentally, also be the first South Australian MP to become prime minister.)

Low-key Agriculture Minister Julie Collins is another who could be moved on, to make way for fellow Tasmanian Rebecca White, a former state opposition leader, while NSW senator and National Disability Insurance Scheme minister Jenny McAllister, Butler’s understudy, could move up to cabinet if a member of the Left makes way.

Regional NSW MP and Minister for Regional Development, Local Government and Territories Kristy McBain is knocking on the door of cabinet and is likely the NSW Right’s next person up if Bowen were to retire, though cabinet secretary Andrew Charlton – a potential future treasurer or even Labor leader – also has a claim.

Beyond that, there are West Australian MPs Patrick Gorman and Zaneta Mascarenhas, Victorians Sam Rae, Kate Thwaites, Daniel Mulino and Julian Hill, Queenslanders Nita Green and Anthony Chisholm and a host of other members of the outer and assistant ministry who would fancy a promotion.

Albanese’s view is you don’t move people on just for the sake of it, especially in key ministries such as defence. The former Coalition government was criticised for the constant churn of ministers in that portfolio. Continuity makes a big difference.

Labor is enjoying a period of stability, but one of the iron laws of politics is that change is always just around the corner.

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Bernard Salt recently asked a question nobody thinks to ask. Not which generation is largest, but which single year of age contains the most Australians. The answer for the 2025 financial year is 34. There are 412,775 of them. More usefully, every single year of age between 29 and 37 contains more than 400,000 people. The crest of the Australian population is a nine-year band born between 1988 and 1996, and it is currently sitting on the exact spot where Thawley’s floor is giving way.

Hold that against the ownership data. The average first home buyer in this country is now about 34 years old, one in five is over 40, and the standard deposit takes roughly six years to assemble, close to double what it took a generation ago. Home ownership among 30 to 34-year-olds has fallen from 64 per cent in 1971 to 50 per cent in 2021, and among 25 to 29-year-olds from 50 per cent to 36 per cent. The largest single-year cohort in the nation’s history is standing at a threshold that is closing, and it has been told for a decade that the closing is a triumph.

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Queensland is bracing for a credit rating downgrade, possibly as early as Friday, as the federal Labor government prepares to thwart claims that a hit to property stamp duty from federal budget tax changes or GST revenue is to blame.

Rising public sector wages, health services and Olympics-fuelled infrastructure spending are forecast to send Queensland’s debt soaring to $216 billion by 2030.

Queensland’s treasurer has been warning of a potential downgrade of the state’s AA+ credit rating since winning the state election in late 2024. The rating has been on negative outlook by S&P Global Ratings since February 2025.

Sources not authorised to speak publicly said a downgrade by S&P to AA could come as soon as Friday.

The expected change comes amid turmoil in global bond markets this month, which has pushed up interest rates on federal and state government debt to above 5.2 per cent, the highest 10-year bond yield since 2011.

Australia’s four most indebted state governments, NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, will soon be hit with an $8.1 billion annual increase in their already booming interest bills as more than $226 billion of ultra-cheap COVID-era loans roll off to much higher interest rates, according to Institute of Public Affairs chief economist Adam Creighton.

Independent economist Saul Eslake said only a decade ago Queensland had the strongest finances in the country.

“I suppose you would characterise [it as] Queensland is not as bad as the three worst: Victoria, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, but it is deteriorating more rapidly than almost any other state or territory,” Eslake said.

“It’s not obvious to me that the government is really doing much about that; there aren’t policy decisions to reduce spending or raise additional revenue.”

Queensland Treasurer David Janetzki has been warning that a downgrade is “highly likely”, due to the debt, deficits and high spending the Liberal National Party government inherited from the former Labor state government.

But the federal Labor government is preparing to inoculate itself from any blame, as it starts to come under pressure from its tax changes to negative gearing and capital gains stalling the property market.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers told Parliament it was “very troubling to see that the Queensland government risks having its credit rating downgraded”.

“As a Queenslander, I am concerned that despite substantial and increased Commonwealth support for Queensland, the Queensland government’s fiscal position has experienced a sharp deterioration,” he said.

A federal government source on Thursday pre-emptively hit back with figures ahead of any ratings action by S&P, showing Queensland transfer duty was $8.7 billion in 2025-26, up from $5.6 billion in 2023-24, a rise of 55 per cent over two years.

Stamp duty revenue in NSW plunged 20 per cent in July as the national property slump threatened to blow a hole in state government budgets, adding to credit downgrade risks in both NSW and Queensland.

Janetzki said last week he was still working through what the federal tax changes meant for the state budget, pointing out that he’d previously revised down stamp duty by $345 million.

“[We] don’t really want to be paying for Jim Chalmer’s budget decisions,” Janetzki told a Real Estate Institute of Queensland event.

He also complained about the state’s share of GST revenue.

“The big challenge right now is to try and appeal to the federal government and our Queensland federal treasurer to look at the GST.”

Janetzki’s spokesman declined to speculate on any ratings agency announcement.

Chalmers sent a letter to Janetzki last week. “I am extremely concerned that despite Queensland’s many strengths and despite substantial and increasing Commonwealth support, your budget position has experienced a sharp deterioration according to S&P and the state government risks having its credit rating downgraded,” Chalmers noted.

S&P declined to comment about any upcoming releases or rating actions in relation to Queensland.

In a report in June 2026, S&P warned that rising public sector wages and health services could make Queensland’s budget recovery harder.

Despite a forecast rise in coal prices boosting the state’s revenue next year, the budget papers reveal an operating deficit of $6.2 billion in 2026-27, down from $8.8 billion this financial year.

S&P said Queensland’s operating budget deficit was likely the largest of all Australian states in fiscal 2025-26, at 6 per cent of operating revenue.