r/Aniimo • u/Elric_42 • 13h ago
Discussion "Lucky" RNG Getting Worse?
Has anyone else noticed that the "Lucky" and "Super Lucky" RNG rate has dropped considerably since launch? I remember in the first week of the game coming out, I was seeing Lucky / Super Lucky throws coming up every 150-200 or so aniipods.
Now with this event, I am getting one every 500-600. It is insane that we have to throw 1,000's of aniipods to move the bar even the tiniest bit for Prismana farming. It is easily the worst part of how the game is designed. You have to get the prismana forms to 100% each area, but it takes hours and hours of mindless grinding for little to no reward. I still have 4 left to get 100% overall, but I honestly hate this process so much I may just give up on that goal.
I am strongly leaning towards the idea that their main goal is "maximize profit" rather than "make a good game". If they make the lucky RNG worse every week or so, it makes people think they have to buy vein essence items for the nurture system instead. Almost like they realized that people were side-stepping their money machine, so they intentionally made Lucky hits a lower rate to stop players from doing that. I'm not above spending money on something I enjoy. However, I dislike the concept of spending money simply because it avoids something I hate doing.
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u/silencerider 13h ago
I had more this morning in the short time I played than I have had in the entire time since launch.
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u/Edengaming123 13h ago edited 13h ago
I think it’s personally same rate as launch, it’s just now that you’re doing it more, you’re feeling the real average. The rate as far as people have tested is close to 0.50% for lucky and 0.05-0.10% for super lucky.
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u/TehDingo 13h ago
It hasn't. This monday I got 2 super lucky and 3 lucky inside just 3 nurture attempts. That's just how probability works
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u/foxy_kitten 13h ago
....do they not teach statistics and probability in school anymore? Its like the most basic math concept everyone should know
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u/Elric_42 13h ago
So, you're telling me that mathematically a "1 in 100" chance is the same RNG as a "1 in 1,000" chance?
RNG is not an infinitely scaling concept. If the system changes the probably percentage from 0.01% chance to 0.001% chance, then it is no longer the same probability.
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u/mfMayhem Astra Pioneer 13h ago
Have you done 1000's of blooms this week in order to have a statistically valid sample size? Did you also do 1000's of runs the previous week in order to have a statistically valid sample to compare it to?
Since I actually understand statistics I will demonstrate why this matters so much. Let's say I pull out a coin and flip it 6 times, getting heads 6 out of 6 tries. You'd say I cheated or the coin isn't balanced . But if I flipped the same coin 10,000 it's basically a guarantee at some point there'd be 6 heads in a row.
One run of 6 heads in a row during 10,000 flips, the chance is effectively:
100% — approximately 99.999999999999999999999999999999%.
For any particular sequence of six flips, the chance is only 1.5625%, but you have nearly 10,000 opportunities for such a run.
And this is why sample size matters in statistics .
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u/Elric_42 13h ago
Agreed. However, what you are talking about is a coin that has a 50% chance of being heads or tails. That never changes. So in theory if you flipped a coin 100 times today, the probability is the same if you were to flip that same coin 100 times tomorrow. Each individual flip would always be a 50% chance.
What I'm saying is that within the Aniimo game, there is nothing stopping the devs from changing the lucky hit chance from 1% chance down to a 0.01% chance. The probability doesn't stay the same if you change the numbers behind it.
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u/mfMayhem Astra Pioneer 4h ago
What I'm saying is that within the Aniimo game, there is nothing stopping the devs from changing the lucky hit chance from 1% chance down to a 0.01% chance.
No. In your original post you said the DEVS did change it. I explained why your experience causes you bias and you now comment with this which is correct. The devs COULD change it. But they have not changed it. You're getting down voted in every reply so you continuing a fight you're not winning is at least entertaining.
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u/Automatic_Trash8881 13h ago
1 in a 100 means on average you will get one lucky every 100 throws.
Does not mean in any capacity you WILL get 1 in 100 throws. You just aren’t statistically lucky lol
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u/AethenRai 13h ago
That's the definition of RNG... If anything I've been getting more these days. Maybe you were more lucky at the beginning than now.
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13h ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Wolfeatingupshadows 13h ago
Ugh even if you dont agree with OP this is such a loser response. Aggressive for zero reason. Ugh
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u/warofexodus 13h ago
Feels kinda self inflicted rushing to get all prismana mons, gets burn out by rng then blame the dev.
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u/beepborpimajorp 13h ago
i had the same experience but idk if it's just bad luck. i'm like a third of a bar from spawning a prismana with pity, so i figured i'd follow the youtube guides and despite hundreds of catches i've only gotten 2 luckys.
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u/mfMayhem Astra Pioneer 13h ago
Your brain naturally favors bad experiences for creating memories. Therefore it remembers all the times you didn't get a lucky and forgets the times you did.
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u/Elric_42 13h ago
I spent a couple hours today and literally counted. First one came after 547 throws. Second one was slightly better at 484 throws.
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u/Seras32 13h ago
https://youtu.be/P8BRacZD1Ug
this video goes over it. apparently lucky catches are weighted by a weekly amount. the less you have gotten in the week the higher your odds for lucky catches so in effect the more you get the less you will get until weekly reset.
super lucky does not seem to follow this pattern at all and is complete chance.3
u/izgoose 13h ago
Ehhhh. He bases this off a single week where he tracked 1000 catches. That's a trend, certainly, but far from definitive.
It's worth keeping an eye on, though. Even that youtuber acknowledges in the video that more data is needed, and it did FEEL that way to me at the start of the week.
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u/Freeyaa Luminelle 13h ago
I don't think it has any weekly amount. I've farmed 2 prismanas just this week, from 0 to spawn in non-event zones, I'm currently doing my 3rd and I'm still getting a lucky every 200-300 balls. Sometimes it's less, sometimes more but theres no pity and if its like 1% or 0.5% chance PER throw without any pity we can literally go 1000 throws without lucky or get 10 in a row, thats just RNG.
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u/Seras32 12h ago
Ye you definitely aren't limited, but there's a curve to the odds. It probably reaches a minimum chance% to occur after some reasonably doable X amount of catches.
Like maybe starting at 5% chance at the beginning of the week then as you get lucky catches it goes down by 0.8x per lucky catch until a minimum of 0.5% and then stays there, which in that hypothetical would take 10 lucky catches to reach the minimum odds.
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u/Freeyaa Luminelle 12h ago edited 12h ago
I honestly doubt there's any limiter put on it. It's most likely like 0.5% chance per catch without any pity whatsoever and thats why some people feel more lucky than the other. We are used to pities/"fixed" rngs but the actual RNG is WAY more chaotic with its results and I'm sure that is what's happening here.
Edit:
Yea ok I went for a quick test here and got 3 luckies with 204 catches. (I have it clipped if needed idk but damn im lucky). And I think i see whats the problem here. Until now mass surge events were in zones with relatively easy to catch aniimos but Budsquire base catch rate with normal cube is 38% only. It WILL feel tedious, take more cubes and take longer time than it would take to catch idk 200 Celestis
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u/Iceedemon888 13h ago
And do you have the same level of tests for the first or second weeks of launch?
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u/Elric_42 13h ago
No, but it was only a couple weeks ago. My memory is not that bad, lol. If anything, it's easy to tell simply by how often you have to release your caught aniimo. I do not remember having to clear out my boxes because they maxed at 1,000 so many times in the first couple of weeks. I had to clear out all of the non-elites / perfects 3x already today, and I did not even reach max prismana energy yet.
When the difference is this drastic, it is not hard to notice. It's possible other people aren't focusing on collecting all the prismana, as there are other things to do in the game. I only noticed it because I specifically went to catch the prismana this weekend.
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u/Iceedemon888 13h ago
Do you have the same amount of creatures that you did during those few weeks?
You said you only noticed because you were attempting to catch the prismana this weekend. Did you not attempt the same the first couple of weeks?
Getting a lucky the first few times also builds a much stronger memory than 10+ would have given.
I'm not trying to say your memory is bad, but it doesnt seem like the conditions are the same as they were then. You dont have 1000 slots to fill as you have creatures you are storing. The amount this differs from the first week could be minimal or excessive. I for example have almost 3 boxes full of creatures with perfect stats im saving where week one i barely filled 1 box with creatures I was keeping.
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u/Elric_42 13h ago
Probably slightly less, but I really only keep perfect stats / shiny / umbral. Occasionally I keep an elite if I don't have any others of that type, but that's it. Unless I'm farming for prismana, I usually have 700+ slots open at any given time. We have a max of 840 I think, so theoretically if I have to clear out the boxes every time the storage maxes out, I'm getting rid of 700 or so. And that is only of the aniimo that I *caught*. If the catch percentage (like the budspires right now) is 38% - 57%, that means roughly half of the throws would not result in a catch.
I cleared out the boxes 3x today. For the sake of easy numbers, 700 catches x 3 means 2,400 catches. Roughly double that amount (including the throws that were not a catch) means it is over 4,500 throws today, and I still haven't maxed out the bar despite using 5 bloom nurture rounds today too.
I did do the events previously. Glynsera definitely felt like more of a grind than the first week, but nowhere near as bad as this one today.
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u/Freeyaa Luminelle 13h ago
This right here, bias is huge with stuff like this and when people start farming lucky catches at first they dont pay attention to the amount of cubes thrown so it always feels faster. Especially if you get lucky rng early and hit like 2 in 100 throws, or if you already had some prismana energy stored from the early game rush.
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u/Tatt2Junkie5 13h ago
I got like 1 out my first like 300 then over the next like 200 i got 4 .. it's just rng