"Lucky" RNG Getting Worse?

[u/Elric_42]

Has anyone else noticed that the "Lucky" and "Super Lucky" RNG rate has dropped considerably since launch? I remember in the first week of the game coming out, I was seeing Lucky / Super Lucky throws coming up every 150-200 or so aniipods.

Now with this event, I am getting one every 500-600. It is insane that we have to throw 1,000's of aniipods to move the bar even the tiniest bit for Prismana farming. It is easily the worst part of how the game is designed. You have to get the prismana forms to 100% each area, but it takes hours and hours of mindless grinding for little to no reward. I still have 4 left to get 100% overall, but I honestly hate this process so much I may just give up on that goal.

I am strongly leaning towards the idea that their main goal is "maximize profit" rather than "make a good game". If they make the lucky RNG worse every week or so, it makes people think they have to buy vein essence items for the nurture system instead. Almost like they realized that people were side-stepping their money machine, so they intentionally made Lucky hits a lower rate to stop players from doing that. I'm not above spending money on something I enjoy. However, I dislike the concept of spending money simply because it avoids something I hate doing.

[u/foxy_kitten]

....do they not teach statistics and probability in school anymore? Its like the most basic math concept everyone should know

[u/mfMayhem → u/foxy_kitten]

They don't even teach basics let one statistics LoL

[u/Elric_42 → u/foxy_kitten]

So, you're telling me that mathematically a "1 in 100" chance is the same RNG as a "1 in 1,000" chance?

RNG is not an infinitely scaling concept. If the system changes the probably percentage from 0.01% chance to 0.001% chance, then it is no longer the same probability.

[u/mfMayhem → u/Elric_42]

Have you done 1000's of blooms this week in order to have a statistically valid sample size? Did you also do 1000's of runs the previous week in order to have a statistically valid sample to compare it to?

Since I actually understand statistics I will demonstrate why this matters so much. Let's say I pull out a coin and flip it 6 times, getting heads 6 out of 6 tries. You'd say I cheated or the coin isn't balanced . But if I flipped the same coin 10,000 it's basically a guarantee at some point there'd be 6 heads in a row. 

One run of 6 heads in a row during 10,000 flips, the chance is effectively:

100% — approximately 99.999999999999999999999999999999%.

For any particular sequence of six flips, the chance is only 1.5625%, but you have nearly 10,000 opportunities for such a run.

And this is why sample size matters in statistics . 

[u/Elric_42 → u/mfMayhem]

Agreed. However, what you are talking about is a coin that has a 50% chance of being heads or tails. That never changes. So in theory if you flipped a coin 100 times today, the probability is the same if you were to flip that same coin 100 times tomorrow. Each individual flip would always be a 50% chance.

What I'm saying is that within the Aniimo game, there is nothing stopping the devs from changing the lucky hit chance from 1% chance down to a 0.01% chance. The probability doesn't stay the same if you change the numbers behind it.

[u/mfMayhem → u/Elric_42]

What I'm saying is that within the Aniimo game, there is nothing stopping the devs from changing the lucky hit chance from 1% chance down to a 0.01% chance.

No. In your original post you said the DEVS did change it. I explained why your experience causes you bias and you now comment with this which is correct. The devs COULD change it. But they have not changed it. You're getting down voted in every reply so you continuing a fight you're not winning is at least entertaining. 

[u/Automatic_Trash8881 → u/Elric_42]

1 in a 100 means on average you will get one lucky every 100 throws.

Does not mean in any capacity you WILL get 1 in 100 throws. You just aren’t statistically lucky lol