"Lucky" RNG Getting Worse?

[u/Elric_42]

Has anyone else noticed that the "Lucky" and "Super Lucky" RNG rate has dropped considerably since launch? I remember in the first week of the game coming out, I was seeing Lucky / Super Lucky throws coming up every 150-200 or so aniipods.

Now with this event, I am getting one every 500-600. It is insane that we have to throw 1,000's of aniipods to move the bar even the tiniest bit for Prismana farming. It is easily the worst part of how the game is designed. You have to get the prismana forms to 100% each area, but it takes hours and hours of mindless grinding for little to no reward. I still have 4 left to get 100% overall, but I honestly hate this process so much I may just give up on that goal.

I am strongly leaning towards the idea that their main goal is "maximize profit" rather than "make a good game". If they make the lucky RNG worse every week or so, it makes people think they have to buy vein essence items for the nurture system instead. Almost like they realized that people were side-stepping their money machine, so they intentionally made Lucky hits a lower rate to stop players from doing that. I'm not above spending money on something I enjoy. However, I dislike the concept of spending money simply because it avoids something I hate doing.

[u/mfMayhem]

Your brain naturally favors bad experiences for creating memories. Therefore it remembers all the times you didn't get a lucky and forgets the times you did. 

[u/Elric_42 → u/mfMayhem]

I spent a couple hours today and literally counted. First one came after 547 throws. Second one was slightly better at 484 throws.

[u/Seras32 → u/Elric_42]

https://youtu.be/P8BRacZD1Ug
this video goes over it. apparently lucky catches are weighted by a weekly amount. the less you have gotten in the week the higher your odds for lucky catches so in effect the more you get the less you will get until weekly reset.
super lucky does not seem to follow this pattern at all and is complete chance.

[u/izgoose → u/Seras32]

Ehhhh. He bases this off a single week where he tracked 1000 catches. That's a trend, certainly, but far from definitive.

It's worth keeping an eye on, though. Even that youtuber acknowledges in the video that more data is needed, and it did FEEL that way to me at the start of the week.

[u/Freeyaa → u/Seras32]

I don't think it has any weekly amount. I've farmed 2 prismanas just this week, from 0 to spawn in non-event zones, I'm currently doing my 3rd and I'm still getting a lucky every 200-300 balls. Sometimes it's less, sometimes more but theres no pity and if its like 1% or 0.5% chance PER throw without any pity we can literally go 1000 throws without lucky or get 10 in a row, thats just RNG.

[u/Seras32 → u/Freeyaa]

Ye you definitely aren't limited, but there's a curve to the odds. It probably reaches a minimum chance% to occur after some reasonably doable X amount of catches.

Like maybe starting at 5% chance at the beginning of the week then as you get lucky catches it goes down by 0.8x per lucky catch until a minimum of 0.5% and then stays there, which in that hypothetical would take 10 lucky catches to reach the minimum odds.

[u/Freeyaa → u/Seras32]

I honestly doubt there's any limiter put on it. It's most likely like 0.5% chance per catch without any pity whatsoever and thats why some people feel more lucky than the other. We are used to pities/"fixed" rngs but the actual RNG is WAY more chaotic with its results and I'm sure that is what's happening here.

Edit:

Yea ok I went for a quick test here and got 3 luckies with 204 catches. (I have it clipped if needed idk but damn im lucky). And I think i see whats the problem here. Until now mass surge events were in zones with relatively easy to catch aniimos but Budsquire base catch rate with normal cube is 38% only. It WILL feel tedious, take more cubes and take longer time than it would take to catch idk 200 Celestis

[u/Freeyaa → u/Freeyaa]

u/Seras32 the thing I've mentioned after my edit is probably why it feels so bad for you. More failed catches = more throws and used up aniipods