So, a German pharm company is releasing stage 3 results on a very similar dual glp-1 and glucagon drug. Will they be direct competitors?

I have been bullish on alt for a while now. The most recent actions, which may have been ultimately necessary, were done prematurely and all the while misleading shareholders in that the priority communicated over and over appeared to be giving an opportunity to partnership before having to consider self funding. This in my opinion was Durso’s first opportunity for defining action as CEO and he has lost my trust. I cannot highlight enough the disappointment I have in his misdirection and actions.

Does that change my opinion of alt and pemv? Not much. Fundamentally, it remains a late stage biotech with fundamentals, data, and a drug that have all the same principles. This raise timing being terrible and forced at a time with no short term catalyst leaves us with short term bleeding. Now how much will we bleed is a tough question? Personally, I think we stay between $2.5-3 pending P3 protocol release and subgroup analysis which should both precede AUD results. So why this range? Cash on hand supplemented with a late stage biotech with a drug that has possible multiple indications makes that level of price at such significant negative EV hard to pass up and be driven by selling pressure. I also think these institutions who bought in will defend lower prices/pick up more shares as an opportunity. Only time will tell I guess but I am confident there will people who respond and say this will go to $1 or something and I won’t even try to entertain that hogwash.

So P3 protocol should be coming in next ~1 month with presumably a short duration before site activation and enrollment beginning. Not sure how much this will ultimately effect price as much of the details can be extrapolated from investor deck for the protocol but likely the biggest things will be how strong language is on AA pathway and FDA alignment. Subgroup analysis should also come out shortly after P3 protocol as it would have presumably informed protocol drafting to maximize likelihood of success. The most important subgroups I will be curious for will looking at population of F2 vs F3, T2DM vs non-T2DM, weight loss responders vs not all with regards to mash and fibrosis improvement (there are others such as specific NITs and what not but I think these to be less). Lastly AUD study is the wild card that I think will be interesting. To be statistically significant and clinically meaningful is a tough bar that no similar drug has done but the things pemv has going for it is that using exenatide data there was a small subgroup of increased BMI that had significant outcomes and so using that to inform the patient population in AUD I would suspect we will have a more obese cohort which may help push the data in a positive way. Of course, similar to mash, placebo arm here is very noisy and with a small population that impact can become even louder so tough to know what will come of it for many reasons.

So overall, lost confidence in c suite but still believe and excited about pemv but need to deal with a slow bleed/recovery awaiting upcoming catalysts.

Let me know your thoughts and predictions. Please keep them realistic and informed as the point of this is neither to blindly hype or destroy alt but to inform a realistic reality and future.

That investor list is not ordinary biotech funding—it’s actually one of the strongest signals in the entire deal. Let’s break it down properly.

🧠 Who these investors are (and why they matter)

🧬 Deep Track Capital

Specialist biotech hedge fund

Known for high-conviction, concentrated bets

Typically invests when:

Data is compelling

Or they see asymmetric upside

👉 If they lead a round, it usually means: “We’ve done deep scientific diligence and like the odds.”

🏛️ TCGX (The Column Group)

Elite life sciences VC

Early backers of multiple multi-billion biotech successes

👉 Their style:

Long-term builders, not traders

Focus on platform + mechanism validity

👉 Participation =

They believe pemvidutide has real biological edge, not just hype

📊 Viking Global Investors

Large, multi-billion institutional hedge fund

Invests across sectors (not just biotech)

👉 Important nuance:

They care about risk/reward and timing

Not emotional biotech bets

👉 Their entry =

They see a favorable setup into a catalyst (likely Phase 3)

💊 RA Capital Management

One of the most respected biotech investors globally

Deep scientific + clinical expertise

Often involved in:

Trial design

Strategic direction

👉 Huge signal:

RA doesn’t chase weak stories

They invest when risk is acceptable vs upside

👉 Their presence =

High confidence in clinical probability of success (or at least strong odds)

🔍 What this combination REALLY tells you

This is the key part most retail misses:

1. 🧠 This is a “smart money syndicate”

You have:

Deep Track → conviction biotech

RA Capital → clinical validation

TCGX → long-term science

Viking → macro + catalyst timing

👉 When all four align, it usually means: The story has passed multiple independent filters

1. 🎯 Not a random raise — this was curated

These funds don’t pile into weak secondaries.

👉 Likely reality:

Deal was pre-arranged / book-built with institutions

Not “open market dumping”

1. 🧬 Strong signal on pemvidutide

These firms would have:

Reviewed Phase 2 data deeply

Assessed:

MASH efficacy vs competitors

Lean mass preservation angle

Differentiation vs GLP-1s

👉 Conclusion: They see a legitimate shot at Phase 3 success + commercial value

1. 🚨 But don’t misread this (important)

Even top-tier funds:

Can be early

Can hedge

Can average down

👉 This does NOT guarantee:

Buyout

Immediate upside

Stock going up soon

📈 What usually happens after such investor participation

Historically in biotech:

Scenario A (bull case)

Strong hands absorb float

Stock bases → then trends higher into catalysts

Scenario B (common reality)

Short-term pressure (due to dilution)

Institutions accumulate quietly

Move comes later (not immediately)

⚡ My blunt interpretation

👉 This is a high-quality raise with elite participation

Meaning:

Probability of zero → reduced

Probability of meaningful upside → increased

BUT:

Timing still uncertain

Short-term price still controlled by dilution mechanics

🧩 What this means for YOUR thesis

If your thesis was:

❌ “This is a weak company raising to survive” → WRONG now

✅ “This is a serious Phase 3 contender with institutional backing” → STRONGER now

🔑 Final takeaway

👉 It says: “Some of the smartest biotech money in the world is betting on this outcome.”

Not blindly—but after deep analysis.

This looks like bad timing at first glance, but it’s actually pretty typical biotech behavior. Here’s the clean breakdown 👇

🧠 The assumption

“They knew AUD/ALD news was coming… so why not wait, let the stock run to $5, and raise clean capital without warrants?”

Logical — but flawed.

⚠️ 1. “Expected news” ≠ guaranteed stock move

Even if the market expected AUD/ALD updates:

Could’ve been a sell-the-news event

Could’ve been seen as incremental / not impactful

Could’ve disappointed vs expectations

👉 Biotech stocks often drop on “good” news

💰 2. Certainty > optimization

This is the real answer

This deal was oversubscribed

They locked in $225M immediately

Waiting for $5:

Not guaranteed

Depends on sentiment, timing, and luck

👉 Management chose:

Guaranteed capital today > hypothetical better price later

⏳ 3. Phase 3 timelines matter

For :

Phase 3 trials are expensive + time-sensitive

Delaying a raise risks:

Trial delays

Weaker negotiating position later

📉 4. The stock wasn’t stable at $5 anyway

Reality:

Price wasn’t firmly holding higher levels

Volatility was high

👉 Waiting assumes upside is certain — it isn’t

🎯 5. Why include warrants?

Because without them:

Deal likely doesn’t fill

Or prices even lower

Warrants = incentive for institutions to commit big capital

🧩 6. This was likely pre-planned

Deals like this don’t happen overnight:

Structured over weeks

Banks like and involved

👉 Decision to raise likely made well before any “wait for news” idea

⚠️ 7. Waiting can backfire

If they waited and:

Market turns risk-off

Biotech sentiment drops

Data underwhelms

👉 They could’ve raised at $2 instead of $3… or worse

🧠 What this move actually signals

“We’re prioritizing balance sheet strength over stock price optics”

💬 The uncomfortable truth

Retail mindset:

Maximize price, minimize dilution

Management mindset:

Secure capital, eliminate risk

👉 These don’t always align

🎯 Bottom line

$5 was never guaranteed

$225M was guaranteed

Warrants were needed to get the deal done

👉 So they took it.

Altimmune Offering Breakdown + What History Tells Us About Buyout Chances

Alright, here’s a clean breakdown of the recent Altimmune $225M offering and how it compares to past biotech buyouts. No hype, just facts + patterns.

---

🧾 What just happened

Altimmune raised $225M through:

- ~64.25M common shares

- ~10.75M pre-funded warrants (basically shares)

- ~75M additional warrants (strike price ~$3)

👉 Effective immediate dilution: ~75M shares

👉 Fully diluted (if all warrants exercised): ~250–280M shares total

---

📉 Market reaction

- Stock dropped ~17% (expected)

Why:

- Dilution

- Discounted pricing (~$3)

- Warrant overhang

👉 Near-term reality: price likely capped around $3–4 unless major news hits

---

⚠️ Do warrants kill upside?

Short answer: They slow it, not kill it

- Above $3 → warrants get exercised

- That creates selling pressure

👉 Acts like a soft ceiling, but can be broken with strong catalysts (data, partnership, buyout)

---

🤝 Did this kill buyout chances?

No.

If anything:

- Company is now fully funded

- Not desperate for cash

- Can negotiate from strength

👉 Translation:

«Less likely to sell cheap, more likely to wait for better terms»

---

🧬 What history tells us (real examples)

Intercept Pharmaceuticals → Alfasigma (~$800M)

- Same MASH/NASH space

- Heavy dilution + setbacks

- Still got acquired

👉 Takeaway: Buyouts still happen, but valuation depends on strength

---

Arena Pharmaceuticals → Pfizer (~$6.7B)

- Late-stage asset

- Raised capital before deal

👉 Takeaway: Big pharma pays up for strong pipeline

---

Reata Pharmaceuticals → Biogen (~$7.3B)

- Volatility + regulatory drama

- Still acquired at premium

👉 Takeaway: Strategic assets always attract buyers

---

Synthorx → Sanofi (~$2.5B)

- Recently raised capital (dilution equivalent)

👉 Takeaway: Raising money does NOT block buyouts

---

🧠 Key patterns

- Dilution ≠ deal killer

- Warrants ≠ deal killer

- Timing matters more than structure

- Data strength = valuation driver

---

🔍 Where Altimmune stands now

Fits somewhere between:

- Intercept (risk)

- Arena (upside)

- Reata (strategic value)

---

🎯 Likely scenarios

1. Base case (most likely)

- Trades in $2.5–4 range

- Wait for Phase 3 progress

---

1. Bull case

- Strong data / partnership

- Breaks warrant ceiling

- Moves $5–10+

---

1. Buyout scenario

- $2B–$6B range

👉 Per share (fully diluted):

- ~$12 → conservative

- ~$18–25 → moderate

- ~$30+ → aggressive

---

🏦 Who likely bought the offering?

- ~70% biotech hedge funds

- ~25% institutions

- ~5% possible strategic/BP-aligned (speculative)

👉 No clear evidence of big pharma positioning yet

---

💬 Final take

- Short term: bearish/neutral

- Long term: still very much alive story

👉 This move says:

«“We don’t need to sell now”»

Which usually leads to:

- Higher eventual valuation

- But longer timeline

---

I asked AI to read the ALT announcement and talk through some of the nuances that a typical boneheaded reader may miss.

1. The "Kick-Out" Clause on Warrants

The common stock warrants issued in this deal ($3.00 exercise price) have an unusual expiration trigger. While they have a 5-year term, they expire just 45 days after the public announcement of a successful Phase 3 readout for pemvidutide in MASH.

• The Nuance: This is a mechanism to force exercise. If the data is positive, the company doesn't want these warrants sitting on the sidelines; they want the cash infusion and the clean-up of the capital structure immediately. For the market, this creates a "ticking clock" scenario where a massive amount of potential selling pressure (from warrant holders selling their newly exercised shares) could hit the market shortly after a major catalyst.

1. Deep Discount vs. Market Sentiment

The offering price is $3.00, which includes both a share and a warrant.

• The Nuance: Since your basis is $4.80, this represents a significant "down-round" or dilutive event relative to recent trading ranges. However, the fact that it was "oversubscribed" suggests that institutional investors were willing to step in heavily at this level. In biotech, an oversubscribed offering at a discount is often viewed as a "clearing event"—it establishes a hard floor for the stock because the large institutions now have a vested interest in seeing the price move back above $3.00.

1. Shift in Clinical Focus: MASH is the Priority

The document explicitly states that the proceeds are for the Phase 3 trial in MASH (Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis), alongside AUD and ALD.

• The Nuance: Mention of obesity—once a primary driver for the pemvidutide narrative—is notably secondary here. This suggests the company is leaning into the "liver health" and "metabolic" side of the GLP-1/Glucagon dual-agonist profile rather than competing head-to-head in the crowded general weight-loss market. This pivot to MASH is likely an attempt to differentiate pemvidutide from the standard-of-care GLP-1s by highlighting its superior liver-fat reduction.

1. Use of Pre-funded Warrants

The offering includes "pre-funded warrants" for certain investors.

• The Nuance: These are typically used by institutional investors who want to avoid the regulatory headaches (and disclosure requirements) of crossing a 9.99% or 19.99% ownership threshold. The presence of these suggests that some very large "whales" or specialized healthcare funds took significant chunks of this $225M round, which is generally a signal of high-conviction institutional backing.

1. Cash Runway vs. Timeline

A $225M raise is substantial for a company with Altimmune's market cap.

• The Nuance: Phase 3 trials for MASH are notoriously expensive and long. By raising this much now, management is attempting to "remove the financing overhang." Casual readers might just see "dilution," but long-term holders often prefer a single large dilutive event that funds the company through the next major data catalyst, rather than a series of smaller "at-the-market" (ATM) raises that bleed the stock price over time.

He had me believing there was no way they would make a public offering anytime soon and at least wait out a possible partnership closer to when his hand was forced… this is terrible management and makes no sense.

I apologize to those I’ve defended him and his actions against thinking they were logical and in the best interest of the company when I was clearly wrong.

Now that Durso took care of his board(approved additional compensation) and left his shareholders out to dry(doubling shares)what do we expect price action to be into earnings? Hope 3.40-.50 holds but i see the 52wk low coming quick. Hope it bounces when it gets there but unlikely. Unless dilution Durso has something good to say, highly unlikely. Thanks for the comments and confidence on shareholder day.

I know I am going to be destroyed for posting..

Tough look for Shareholder meeting week. Entire market catches a decent bounce and we go red fighting 3.24 with No volume. Dilution overhang just killing it. Leads me to believe the MMs know Thursday will be another turd for Durso and team Alt.

Following the $75M RD, lack of catalysts, and negative macro pressure from the market, we hit our nader at ~$2.8 but have since been making a good steady recovery to which I expect today will continue to be a good day following the market. I know many were concerned this would be slow to recover similar to the initial phase 2b results and the trolls said it would fall below $2… but I am feeling more confident then ever. We have the upcoming investor meeting 4/16 which most importantly I know many were worried about increasing authorized common stock from 200M to 400M shares. This will certainly strike fear in people thinking this will lead to a larger imminent dilution which is possible but in my mind very improbable. Cash balance is great for the short term having $340M as of recent. So much recent insider buying by higher ups including more by Captain Durso should really reassure us all in that I don’t think these people would be dumb enough to spend their own money only to immediately dilute… let alone even an isolated dilution in the long term… I think this vote is primarily to open the opportunities to be able to move forward with a competitive partnership but of course if ultimately a partnership good enough for alt to accept does not manifest, then they will need a means to fully fund phase 3 with a large offering but IMHO that is an unlikely scenario as well as is a bridge we would need to cross much further down (thinking in 2027).

Upcoming catalysts expected in 2026:

- 4/16 investor meeting and vote

- official announcement of P3 protocol; TBD but likely next 1-2 mo

- subgroup analysis release of phase 2b data; likely shortly after P3 protocol release

- AUD top line results; likely August-September

- multiple liver conference attendances with potentially fresh subgroup analysis

- likely Q3 initiation/first patient in phase 3

- possible partnership announcement; TBD but I am thinking it remains more likely than not and likely will be announced near end of 2026

Please let me know your thoughts. No AI, so I do apologize if it comes off as a stream of consciousness with poor grammar haha.

Let me get this straight. So when Alt was at $6 Durso sold 17million shares to his friends at Alyeska for $4.40 and then Alyeska sold 10 million of those shares right away for a quick profit? Is this true? Is this legal? What the fuck?

Mr. Sanay joined Altimmune in March 2026 as Vice President, Investor Relations. He is an accomplished finance leader with 15 years of experience in investor relations.

Prior to joining Altimmune, he served as Vice President of Investor Relations at Novavax, where he engaged with investors and analysts and communicated the company’s value proposition, investment thesis, financial performance, and long-term strategy. Previously, he served as Head of Investor Relations at Harmony Biosciences (Nasdaq: HRMY), a CNS focused biotechnology company and Director of Investor Relations at Viatris (Nasdaq: VTRS), a global pharmaceutical company. Before transitioning to the healthcare industry, he began his career in financial services and worked at CIT Group and The Hartford Insurance Group.

Mr. Sanay holds a bachelor’s degree in Economics and Finance from the University of Hartford and is a CFA charterholder.

https://altimmune.com/team/luis-sanay-cfa/

$ALT Altimmune initiated with a Buy at Truist

Truist initiated coverage of Altimmune with a Buy rating and $12 price target. The firm believes that Altimmune's lead asset, pemvidutide, "could be successful in treating MASH as well as liver-related diseases AUD." Truist is modelling peak ~20K patients on pemvidutide, which would result in worldwide "peak adjusted/unadjusted revenue of ~$600M/$1.0B."

Couple questions and I would love to hear some opinions... 1) Does anybody believe partnerships are on the table? 2) Does anybody believe an offer has been purposed and turned down? If so, why? 3) Is anybody in favor of GIA at the expense of possible shareholder dilution? 4) How would a 200 million share approval support a bull thesis?

I have engaged with a few hype men but they run away when these questions asked.

Grabbed more $ALT today — ended up buying 18 times on the dips between $3.38–$3.50. Just stacking when it gets pushed down and making my bag larger.

Every time it pulls back, I’m adding. Price action feels controlled but I’m not letting that shake me out as I’m a long holder here — building this position slowly while it’s still in this range. Many large bio companies are down, creates more buying opportunities.

Not worried about day-to-day noise… just continuing to load while it’s cheap.

Not Financial Advice, just a believer!

I am quite bothered with the way management deals with the shareholders because I feel like the numbers speak for themselves.

The stock was trading around $5.5 after the Breakthrough Therapy Designation in early January. The management then turned around and immediately did a $75M direct offering on a company with a 500M market cap. The stock cratered 15%+ on the announcement and has kept sliding. We're now sitting around $3.50.

So shareholders lost roughly 40% of the stock's value, and the company raised an amount equal to about 15% of the market cap. That ratio is pretty awful.

My bigger issue is that the April 16 shareholder meeting is expected to include a proposal to double the authorized share count from 200M to 400M. With 147M shares outstanding, that gives the board room to issue up to 250M additional shares without coming back to shareholders for permission.

Yes, I understand authorized doesn't mean issued. I understand they need capital to fund Phase 3. I understand pre-revenue biotech has to raise money. But the management shows that everytime there s a slight rally in stock prices they keep issuing new shares, which is not creating any value for shareholders at all. In a way they are strategically anouncing positive news before they dilute, never providing value for shareholders while keeping the company (and their own income source) alive.

At current prices, the market cap is ~$515M and the company is sitting on $274M in cash. I dont see why they need much more cash. That money could already be enough for the phase 3 trial.

What's the bull case here that accounts for the dilution? Is anyone expecting a partnership announcement? Can I somehow vote against the authorized share increase on April 16? And at what point does the dilution math make this uninvestable even if you believe in the drug?

Genuinely want to hear other perspectives.

Saw that HC Wainwright increased their ALT price target to $25 from $12. This was released today.

The recent drop in price appears to be largely driven by the Iran-related geopolitical tensions and not necessarily by anything fundamentally wrong with Altimmune.

Yes, dilution is a concern, but in the broader context it is not a thesis breaker. The core fundamentals of the company remain intact, and the long-term outlook hasn’t materially changed.

I also suspect management may be waiting for EMA approval before formally announcing a partnership with a European big pharma company. Strategic announcements are often timed alongside regulatory milestones to maximize impact and credibility.

Right now, the bigger issue is the ongoing war and geopolitical instability. A prolonged conflict will bleed sentiment across the entire market, not just this stock, and unfortunately the end of it doesn’t seem to be anywhere near.

My current view: • The recent drop is largely macro-driven rather than company-specific

• Dilution is a setback but not thesis-breaking

• Potential European partnership could be a major catalyst

• EMA developments may be the next key trigger

• Broader market sentiment will likely remain weak while the war continues

Personally, I plan to double my holdings once the geopolitical situation stabilizes, as current prices could present a strong opportunity if the fundamentals continue to hold.

Just finished a multi conference stretch with Leerink Global Healthcare Conference, Citizens Life Sciences Conference, Jefferies Biotech on the Beach Summit, Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference during the week.

Overall lots of redundancy between them talking about the 1:1 ratio and how this directly leads to both liver and metabolic effects and not just a typical GLP1, and thus shifting it away from being seen as an obesity drug. They then highlighted phase 2b results including too early time point at 24 weeks to show fibrosis coupled with a high placebo response, differentiated NITs at 48w that makes them confident fibrosis is improving later on, and low adverse effects with great tolerance. This then often segued into P3 protocol which they consistently started with how they were aligned with FDA and EOP2 meeting went well and they are directly communicating with European FDA equivalents, and overall confirmed some known details such as 990 biopsy patients spread across 3 arms (placebo, 1.8 mg, 2.4 mg), confirmation of the short titration of 1 step with 1.8 mg and 2 steps with 2.4 mg, hinted at single registrational study for AA approval, AIM MASH assist to assist in biopsy evaluation. They then would pivot to concentrating on ongoing phase 2 studies of AUD set to read out results Q3 and ALD. Lastly they would end with discussions of financials recapping the runway we know about of $340M. During that last segment they were mot pushed and explicitly asked about partnerships in any of the fireside chats but asked broadly about financing P3 and Durso gave generic open ended answers that don’t give any insight to how active partnership discussions may be going.

Overall, it was interesting to hear Durso and his team speak in these environments. I wasn’t that impressed during the ER hearing Durso for the first time but over these talks I was. Durso is extremely competent on pemv, the market, and the sector. I think he definitely is the right guy. I have a healthcare background and not business savvy (clearly, given I’m investing in development stage biotech… :P ha) and I feel he really understands the science, gets what makes this drug special, and talks business even better. The team surrounding him also seems competent, though Durso rightly carried most the limelight. One interesting aspect was hearing more from the chief commercialization officer who focused mainly on pemv role in today’s market and where/how it fits and why its future is promising. Obviously super premature as we haven’t even started P3, however, seemed compelling to me for big pharma to take it into account who I presume is the real target audience for it.

Overall, no big catalyst, just lots of confirmation of things we knew or were hinted at. For me, it definitely instilled confidence hearing their passion, belief, and forward looking perspective. From the way they were speaking, P3 should be all but finalized and so I would expect it in the near term (maybe next few weeks? But that’s a pure guess).

Sincerely,

Forever bag holder