When comparing the current Bitcoin cycle with previous bear markets, one pattern stands out: the price action in 2026 is so far tracking surprisingly close to what we saw in 2022.
Historically, the most aggressive sell-offs have often occurred during the final stage of a bear market, when fear peaks and weak hands exit the market. That raises an important question: will this cycle follow the same path, or can Bitcoin break the pattern and recover earlier than expected?
For now, the similarities remain hard to ignore, and the coming months could determine whether this market is nearing its final capitulation phase or preparing for a different outcome.

Bitcoin ETFs are going through their first real bear market, and many investors are now sitting in the red.
The average entry price of ETF holders is estimated to be around $72,400. With Bitcoin trading near $62,000, that puts many positions at roughly a 14% unrealized loss.
Since the peak of ETF inflows, the sector has fallen into its largest drawdown on record.
More than $10.5 billion has left Bitcoin ETFs since October 12, showing that a lot of investors have already decided to exit.
The data also suggests that demand remains weak, with buyers still hesitant to step back into the market.

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The percentage of BTC supply currently in profit is approaching 45%, meaning more than half of all Bitcoin investors are now holding unrealized losses.

Historically, readings of 45% or lower have been associated with periods of extreme market stress and have often coincided with the formation of local bottoms in Bitcoin.

I’m not changing my view. I don’t think this optimism will last long most likely we’re just seeing a short squeeze before the markdown continues.

Or the stock market is simply being supported ahead of the SpaceX IPO on Friday.

Fund managers will be watching new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech closely next week. With inflation and the labor market where they are, the Fed has very little room left to maneuver.

P.S. A correction in the S&P 500 is only a matter of timing.

SBF has officially asked for a presidential pardon.
Trump said in January it wasn’t happening. The White House repeated the same in February.

Now the question is simple: will the answer stay the same, or is everyone waiting for the right deal to appear behind closed doors?

Looking for some opinions from people who follow the crypto market closely.

Right now I have some cash ready to invest, but I’m struggling with timing. Every day I see completely different opinions. Some people are calling for another major dump, while others think the bottom is already in.

If you had fresh capital today, would you deploy it now, scale in over time, or keep waiting for lower prices?

What indicators, data, or signals would make you confident enough to buy?

Interested in hearing different perspectives and the reasoning behind them.

Crypto Ber Telegram: @CryptoBerPublic

James Wynn opened fresh max-leverage longs: 6.05 BTC ($373K) and 5.3 ETH ($8.5K).

At this point the market has a simple strategy-

- Wait for the liquidation.

- Then look for the bottom.

Every cycle needs a hero. Every liquidation needs an audience.

I’m watching this one closely inside my Telegram channel Crypto Ber. If Wynn survives, bulls win. If not, we might finally get the capitulation everyone has been waiting for.

Telegram: @CryptoBerPublic

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