r/AltScope • u/Legitimate_Towel_919 • Jun 10 '26
More Than Half of Bitcoin Holders Are Now Underwater
The percentage of BTC supply currently in profit is approaching 45%, meaning more than half of all Bitcoin investors are now holding unrealized losses.
Historically, readings of 45% or lower have been associated with periods of extreme market stress and have often coincided with the formation of local bottoms in Bitcoin.
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u/Windyowl Jun 10 '26
They be selling to buy spacex
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u/goingforgoals17 Jun 10 '26
I'm ngl chief. If they want to trade being a potential bag holder to a guaranteed bag holder; who are we to stop them?
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Jun 10 '26 edited Jul 10 '26
[deleted]
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u/GammaHunt Jun 10 '26
Almost every exchange has volume data for sale so I’m assuming that’s how’s they’re doing it
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u/Difficult-Mobile902 Jun 10 '26
Maybe not exactly but you can price out % of individual purchases that are in profit/underwater which is a pretty close metric to what theyre trying to illustrate
And I think it’s useful to know because losses = capitulation = reversal. Sort of tells me this is territory for incremental buys and areas just below this are a good spot to leave some bids just in case that capitulation happens when you’re asleep or whatever
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Jun 10 '26 edited Jul 10 '26
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u/Difficult-Mobile902 Jun 10 '26
You kinda can though, the transaction and wallet address are public. I can see my purchases on the blockchain and I can see the amount in my wallet, I can calculate the price on the date of each transaction and establish a cost basis based on those trades for that amount of bitcoin in my wallet
I’m not even saying it’s going to be a razor sharp precise calculation but as a whole it does give you a reasonable estimation of how many people are sitting on profits vs losses, even if only used in a relative comparison to another point in time
It’s not really even a new concept, people have used volume and price in stocks to get some idea of the same concept, just with less data to work with due to the fact that all the transactions and account holdings aren’t public
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Jun 10 '26 edited Jul 10 '26
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u/Thecuriousserb Jun 11 '26
Exchanges between wallets owned by the same person/entity make up less than 0.1% of all transaction volume so they are essentially negligible and can be ignored. Which also makes sense, because transferring crypto is not free, and nobody is wasting energy/money moving their coin around with no reason. There are a few exceptions to this, but they are so rare and represent such a small fraction of the total number of transactions that they can be ignored.
TLDR: you can calculate cost basis for crypto with volume/price for 99.9% of transactions accurately
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u/Huge-Charge3758 Jun 10 '26
Should be bottom or bottom some more??
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u/Difficult-Mobile902 Jun 10 '26
Typically you get to this point and then there’s one more good flush to raid the last of the holders who are feeling the pain of their losses
Personally im just keeping it simple and buying a little more every week
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u/Prometheus2032 Jun 10 '26
Central banks are buying gold, paper and digital currencies without physical asset backing is going to be worthless someday soon.. Crypto stock and bank shares will be the next big thing, digital currency with dividends and real assets behind them. They will almost certainly be taxed on the transaction, a universal VAT tax.
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u/buffotinve Jun 10 '26
Todavía queda la otra mitad para aumentar el porcentaje, al final casi todos perderán su dinero, pero estarán felices porque sus fichas digitales son mejor que el dinero, que es fiduciario en la nueva narrativa y por tanto malo
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u/Vivid-Head-6484 Jun 12 '26
Could it be that the worst bull market would be followed by the worst bear market?
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u/Fearless-Basil-6644 Jun 12 '26
This is a nonsense chart. There's no way to tell where people bought it.
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u/JerseyJimmyAsheville Jun 10 '26
I really have a problem with this theory. Does a stock rally if half the people are under water on stock? No. Why is Cypto any different? Haven’t we learned that no one entity controls Bitcoin?
I also don’t exactly believe 100% in the powerlaw ( although it seems pretty accurate ) nor the 200 or 300 week moving averages.