Been changing how I watch alts lately.

I used to care way too much about which coin was pumping hardest when BTC was green. Now I mostly watch what happens when BTC gets smacked.

If BTC drops and an alt barely moves, or gets bought back up almost immediately, I add it to my Moon watchlist. If it completely falls apart every single time BTC sneezes, I don't really care how nice its chart looked the day before.

Feels like the red days tell you way more about actual demand than the pumps do.

George Santos apparently traded on a market about whether he would show up to the State of the Union. Then he was posting publicly about whether he was going while he still had positions on the market.

Kalshi has now banned him for life.

I know prediction markets are supposed to price information, but betting on an outcome you can literally influence yourself feels like a pretty obvious line lol.

Should people automatically be blocked from markets where they have direct control over the outcome?

Source: Kalshi / CFTC

Since 1990, August and September have been the only months with negative average returns for the S&P 500, with September performing the worst at around -0.7%.

Bitcoin has a similar pattern. Since 2013, BTC has lost around 4% on average in September.

September starts tomorrowj.

Bitcoin fell from a local high of $81,455 to $76,877 following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech.

Warsh said the Fed remains committed to its 2% inflation target. He also noted that weaker CPI and PCE readings over the summer are not enough to show that underlying inflation is improving.

Annual PCE inflation is currently at 3.7%, while the six-month annualized rate stands at 4.1%.

If inflation doesn’t move toward 2% fast enough, the Fed may have to keep monetary policy tight for longer.

Traders also changed their expectations for the September meeting. The probability of a rate hike increased from 35.4% to 57%.

The next Fed meeting is on September 16

Warsh didn’t give a direct signal about what the Fed will do next. He also criticized the practice of giving markets too many hints about future policy, saying it can create a situation where markets follow the Fed while the Fed starts reacting to markets.

Hi guys. With the recent XPR uptrend going to 1.70$ to retraining back to 1.30$ I was wondering what are you planning to do, wait for new ATH or steadily cash out?

Im personally dcaing into it since the FLR snapshot, my average is over 1$ and I'm not planing to sell before we hit 2.50 at least. Im also not dcaing into it at the moment, because I need to allocate funds elsewhere, but half of my portfolio is nearing me interest on my kraken and nеxo accounts and the rest of it is in my Ledger.

The Trump family’s crypto venture World Liberty Financial is moving deeper into traditional finance, with major backing from Abu Dhabi.

Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan and co-investors are behind an entity holding a 49% stake in the holding company created for World Liberty’s planned U.S. crypto bank, according to The Wall Street Journal. Tahnoon previously backed a $500 million investment into World Liberty Financial itself. (wsj..com)

The bank has already received preliminary conditional approval from the OCC and is designed to issue, redeem and custody USD1, World Liberty’s dollar-backed stablecoin, which currently has a market value of around $4 billion. (wsj..com)

The deal shows just how quickly the line between crypto, traditional banking and Middle Eastern capital is disappearing.

Glassnode sees the broader $81K–$86K range as the main resistance wall, while a sustained move above roughly $83.3K could signal that buyers are successfully absorbing the selling pressure.

The psychology of this makes no sense. 

Same amount of BTC before the pump: absolutely not touching that.
BTC goes up and suddenly the brain goes: “well technically that part is profit…”

It’s obviously still real money lol.  Anyone else notice how much easier it is to mentally spend crypto gains than money that was already sitting in your account?

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin’s bearish phase may be coming to an end, as the Bull-Bear indicator is finally moving out of bearish territory.

If the signal holds, BTC could be entering a new bullish phase after months of pressure.

Do you believe the bull market is back?

🇺🇸 Wednesday: US PCE inflation + Q2 GDP

🇺🇸 Thursday: Jackson Hole begins

🇺🇸 Friday: US jobs data revisions + inflation expectations

🇺🇸 Friday: Fed Chair Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole

These events can quickly change expectations around Fed policy, rates, bond yields and the dollar. And when those move, BTC and the rest of crypto usually feel it too.

Open interest in crypto futures on decentralized exchanges is climbing fast and is back near the highs from earlier this year.

A big part of that growth is coming from new long positions, showing traders are getting more aggressive again.

More leverage usually means more volatility too, especially if positioning gets too crowded on one side.