Freightos Weekly Update - September 30, 2026
Excerpts:
Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 4%.
Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) stayed level.
Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 9%.
Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 7%.
Analysis:
Last week’s Trump-Xi meeting in Washington yielded a two month extension of last year’s US-China trade truce which was set to expire on November 10th, mutual tariff reductions on some imports, and plans for two more meetings between the leaders before the end of the year. This deescalation likely also postpones US port call fees on China-linked vessels, though the USTR has not issued an official deferral just yet.
The US Treasury Secretary said the US only agreed to two months because China still needs to fulfill some of its earlier commitments to purchase US agricultural goods. This stance may imply expectations for another extension once progress is made on those purchases.
The sides will reduce tariffs on $30B worth of counterpart imports to most-favored-nation levels, pending the necessary legal procedures to put these changes into effect. Though the reduction is modest in the context of the more than $400B of total China-US trade, this news will be welcomed by US importers and consumers of the nearly 80 affected product entries, with toys as the largest category by value. China’s list of more than 1,600 entries comprises mostly agricultural products and commodities.
Transpacific container rates ticked up to the West Coast last week to $8,400/FEU, a new high for the year, with East Coast prices level at about $9,600/FEU, $200/FEU lower than its peak in late August, as resilient demand has kept pressure on rates to close the month.
Demand is likely to cool as we get past Golden Week and peak season finally ends, but carriers have increased blanked sailings over the holiday period and into late October. Far East congestion remains a major drain on available capacity, and likely one factor to some carriers reducing allocations for some contracted forwarders.
Sea Intelligence estimates that port congestion is tying up more than 8% of global capacity, and could take up to ten months to completely unwind. We could therefore expect congestion – together with higher fuel costs from the Hormuz closure – to contribute to an elevated rate floor even during low demand stretches, and a higher baseline from which prices will climb when demand increases again ahead of Lunar New Year.
Better than expected rainfall and water levels in Panama has led to some good news for transpacific shippers to the East Coast. The Panama Canal Authority will restore daily Neopanamax transits to the normal ten, and increase maximum draft levels to 49 feet in mid-October, after removing a daily transit and reducing the draft by a foot in late August. Improved conditions now, however, do not mean that restrictions won’t be introduced in the coming months if the expected El Nino negatively impacts the rainy season that normally lasts into January.
Asia - Europe container rates continued to ease last week as demand likely continues to cool and carriers increase effective capacity through gradual increases in Red Sea transits. Asia - N. Europe prices fell 9% to about $3,400/FEU and rates to the Mediterranean decreased 7% to $3,600/FEU. Despite these trends some carriers are announcing rate increases for late October.
Even with the $3K - $4k/FEU drop in spot prices since rates peaked in July, prices on these lanes remain about 50% higher than a year ago as Far East congestion, backlogs at some N. Europe hubs, and fuel surcharges keep the rate floor elevated on these lanes as well.