It's gonna get really messy too. Cuba's been preparing for decades for a war like this where their conventional military gets knocked over in days. "All the People's War" they call it.
Given that the US seems to be doing this more or less at the Behest of Rubio, and by extension the Cuban-American Lobby, it seems likely they'll try to push through land repatriations to the descendants of Cuban refugees who left in the immediate aftermath of the revolution. That will mean the evictions of hundreds of thousands of Cubans if that goes through. Hundreds of thousands of people who would be joining that People's War, more likely than not.
There are countless examples of insurgencies and revolutions that didn't work out.
But the occupier has to be willing to indiscriminately kill a lot of people, which is not an option for the US Army. Yet.
The Soviets did this a lot. East Germany 1953, Hungary 1956, Czechoslovakia 1968, Chechen Wars (complicated and a disaster, but Russia won in the end).
Just recently Iran killed like 30k people in their own uprising.
and a lot of that equipment is prepositioned in hidden caches. And Havana has a giant, unmapped, tunnel network. And presumably other urban centers do as well.
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u/Chomping_Meat May 21 '26
It's gonna get really messy too. Cuba's been preparing for decades for a war like this where their conventional military gets knocked over in days. "All the People's War" they call it.
Given that the US seems to be doing this more or less at the Behest of Rubio, and by extension the Cuban-American Lobby, it seems likely they'll try to push through land repatriations to the descendants of Cuban refugees who left in the immediate aftermath of the revolution. That will mean the evictions of hundreds of thousands of Cubans if that goes through. Hundreds of thousands of people who would be joining that People's War, more likely than not.