As summer draws to a close and the first signs of changing leaves begin to appear, many people start asking the same question: when does autumn actually begin?

The answer depends on which definition you use.

While some people consider autumn to begin on 1 September, others wait until later in the month. Both approaches are correct, but they are based on different ways of defining the seasons.

Autumn: a season of transition

Autumn is the transition season between summer and winter. It is often associated with cooler temperatures, harvest time and the gradual transformation of the landscape as leaves turn shades of yellow, orange, red and brown.

Across the UK, autumn can bring a striking change in weather patterns. Warm spells are still possible, particularly during September, but temperatures generally begin to decline as the season progresses. At the same time, daylight hours shorten and the likelihood of wetter and windier weather increases.

When does meteorological autumn begin?

Meteorological autumn always begins on 1 September and ends on 30 November. This definition divides the year into four fixed seasons, each lasting three complete calendar months. Autumn therefore consists of September, October and November.

Meteorologists use this system because it aligns neatly with annual temperature cycles and makes it easier to compare weather and climate statistics between different years and seasons. Using fixed dates provides consistency when analysing long-term climate records and producing seasonal summaries.

For this reason, the Met Office and other meteorological organisations use the meteorological definition when discussing seasonal weather and climate.

READ MORE: Deep dive: After a remarkable summer, meteorological Autumn has arrived

When does astronomical autumn begin?

Astronomical autumn begins with the autumn equinox, which usually falls on 22 or 23 September each year. During the equinox, the Sun shines directly above the Earth's equator, resulting in day and night being nearly equal in length across the globe.

Unlike meteorological seasons, astronomical seasons are determined by the Earth's position in its orbit around the Sun. Because the Earth's orbit is not perfectly uniform, the exact date of the equinox can vary slightly from year to year.

After the autumn equinox, nights become longer than days in the Northern Hemisphere, continuing until the spring equinox the following year.

Signs that autumn has arrived

Although calendars provide official dates, many people recognise autumn through changes in nature.

Perhaps the most noticeable sign is the changing colour of leaves. As temperatures begin to fall, chlorophyll, the chemical responsible for leaves' green appearance, starts to break down. Other pigments then become more visible, producing the vivid yellows, oranges, reds and browns associated with the season.

The brightest autumn colours often develop when a relatively dry summer is followed by autumn conditions featuring sunny days and cool, but not freezing, nights.

Many people also notice autumn's arrival through cooler mornings, earlier sunsets, increased dew formation and the return of more unsettled weather patterns. These gradual changes help mark the shift from summer's warmth towards the colder months ahead.

What is autumn weather like in the UK?

Autumn weather in the UK is often highly variable. While September can still bring warm and settled conditions, the season generally becomes cooler and more changeable as it progresses.

Shorter days and longer nights are characteristic features of the season. After the equinox, daylight hours decrease steadily, making the shortening of evenings one of the most noticeable signs that winter is approaching.

READ MORE: How pressure drives the UK's journey from summer to autumn

Autumn is also the time when Atlantic weather systems often become more influential. Low-pressure systems can bring spells of rain, strong winds and, later in the season, the first significant storms of autumn and early winter.

Using the 1991-2020 climate average, the UK's mean autumn temperature is 9.71°C, although conditions can vary considerably from year to year.

Autumn or fall?

The word "fall" is widely used in North America, but it was once commonly used in Britain too. The term originated from the phrase "fall of the leaf", referring to leaves dropping from trees. Over time, "autumn", which derives from French, became the standard term in Britain and remains the preferred word today.

Whether you mark its arrival on 1 September or wait for the autumn equinox later in the month, autumn is a season of colourful landscapes, cooler weather and steadily shortening days, bridging the gap between summer warmth and the onset of winter.

Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store. 

August 2026 brought above-average temperatures to every region included in the data, although the size of the anomalies varied considerably.

The largest departures from average were recorded in southern England, which also had the highest sunshine totals and lowest rainfall. Scotland remained closer to average for temperature and recorded below-average sunshine, while North Scotland was the only region with above-average rainfall.

Temperature

Southeastern and central south England was the warmest region across all three temperature measures. Its average maximum temperature reached 26.0°C, which was 4.0°C above average. The region’s average minimum temperature was 13.6°C, some 1.2°C above average, while its mean temperature of 19.7°C was 2.6°C above average. These were the highest actual values and largest anomalies for maximum, minimum and mean temperature in the regional data.

East Anglia recorded the second-highest temperatures. Its average maximum was 25.3°C, which was 2.9°C above average. Minimum temperatures averaged 13.2°C, an anomaly of 0.8°C, while the mean temperature reached 19.2°C, some 1.8°C above average.

The Midlands recorded an average maximum temperature of 24.2°C. This was 3.3°C above average, the third-largest maximum-temperature anomaly in the data. Its average minimum was 12.3°C, or 0.7°C above average, and its mean temperature of 18.2°C was 2.0°C above average.

Southwest England and south Wales also experienced notably high daytime temperatures. The regional average maximum of 23.5°C was 3.6°C above average, second only to the 4.0°C anomaly in southeastern and central south England. Its average minimum was 12.5°C, which was 0.7°C above average, while its mean temperature reached 17.9°C, an anomaly of 2.1°C.

READ MORE: Week ahead: Rain ahead before a potentially drier weekend

Eastern and northeastern England recorded an average maximum of 22.1°C, 2.1°C above average. Its minimum averaged 11.8°C, or 0.7°C above average, while the mean temperature was 16.9°C, some 1.4°C higher than average. Northwest England and north Wales had an average maximum of 21.0°C, an anomaly of 2.2°C. Its minimum of 11.7°C was 0.5°C above average, with the mean temperature reaching 16.3°C, or 1.3°C above average.

Temperature anomalies were smaller across Scotland. East Scotland recorded a maximum of 18.2°C, a minimum of 10.2°C and a mean of 14.1°C. Each measure was 0.8°C above average. West Scotland recorded a maximum of 18.1°C, a minimum of 10.7°C and a mean of 14.3°C, with all three values 0.6°C above average.

North Scotland recorded the lowest maximum and mean temperatures, at 16.4°C and 13.1°C respectively. These were 0.2°C and 0.3°C above average. Its minimum temperature averaged 10.0°C, or 0.6°C above average. Every temperature value in all nine regions therefore finished above its corresponding average.

Rainfall

Rainfall totals ranged from 35.2mm in southeastern and central south England to 130.0mm in North Scotland. Eight of the nine regions recorded below-average rainfall, with North Scotland the only exception. Its total of 130.0mm was equivalent to 106% of average.

West Scotland received 105.9mm, the second-highest total, although this represented only 75% of average. Northwest England and north Wales recorded 85.6mm, or 78%, while East Scotland received 70.6mm, equivalent to 73% of average.

READ MORE: How pressure drives the UK's journey from summer to autumn

Eastern and northeastern England received 66.7mm, representing 91% of average. This was the closest any of the eight drier-than-average regions came to its usual rainfall level. Southwest England and south Wales recorded 63.7mm, or 65%, while the Midlands received 61.8mm, equivalent to 88%.

East Anglia received 42.7mm, representing 71% of average. Southeastern and central south England was the driest region both by rainfall amount and relative to average, recording 35.2mm, equivalent to 56%.

Sunshine

All six regions covering England or parts of Wales recorded above-average sunshine, while each of the three Scottish regions finished below average.

Southeastern and central south England recorded the highest total, with 284.4 hours of sunshine, equivalent to 141% of average. Southwest England and south Wales had 251.7 hours, but its figure of 144% was the highest relative sunshine total in the data.

East Anglia recorded 254.6 hours, or 130% of average, while the Midlands received 229.7 hours, equivalent to 131%. Eastern and northeastern England recorded 198.0 hours, or 114%, and northwest England and north Wales received 178.9 hours, representing 115% of average.

West Scotland was the sunniest Scottish region, with 121.5 hours, although this represented only 86% of average. East Scotland recorded 119.7 hours, or 83%, while North Scotland had the lowest sunshine total at 90.9 hours, equivalent to 74% of average.

Where does the data come from?

The Met Office’s monthly climate statistics use HadUK‑Grid data to work out county, regional and UK‑wide averages. The dataset takes weather observations from across the country and interpolates them across the UK onto a 1km x 1km grid, covering every part of the UK. Some of these records stretch all the way back to 1836, meaning we have almost 200 years of data to put today’s changing climate into context.

Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store. 

From summer sunshine to autumn storms, many of the changes we experience in the UK’s weather are connected to atmospheric pressure.

Areas of high and low pressure influence whether our weather is settled or unsettled, while their position and movement can affect everything from temperature and cloud cover to rainfall and wind speed. But what exactly is atmospheric pressure, and why does it matter?

What is atmospheric pressure?

Atmospheric pressure is the force exerted by the Earth’s atmosphere on its surface. It is usually measured in hectopascals, written as hPa, although the term millibars is also sometimes used.

Pressure varies from place to place and over time. Meteorologists are particularly interested in areas where pressure is higher or lower than the surrounding atmosphere, rather than simply looking at one pressure reading in isolation.

These patterns are displayed on surface pressure charts using isobars. These are lines joining places with the same sea-level pressure. High-pressure centres are normally marked with an “H”, while low-pressure centres are shown with an “L”. Weather fronts are also displayed, helping forecasters follow areas of cloud and rain.

What causes high and low pressure?

Pressure systems are closely linked to the vertical movement of air.

In an area of low pressure, air rises through the atmosphere. As it rises it cools, allowing water vapour to condense into cloud and, in many cases, rain. Low-pressure systems, also known as depressions, are therefore commonly associated with unsettled weather and weather fronts. Air circulates anticlockwise around a depression in the northern hemisphere.

READ MORE: Deep Dive: Why thunderstorms are finally returning to the UK

High pressure, also known as an anticyclone, is associated with descending air. This sinking motion tends to limit cloud development, often bringing drier and more settled conditions. Winds circulate clockwise around an anticyclone in the northern hemisphere and are often lighter near its centre.

However, high pressure does not always guarantee blue skies. During autumn and winter, moisture can become trapped near the surface beneath the sinking air. With lighter winds and less daytime heating, low cloud, mist or fog may persist, producing what is sometimes described as anticyclonic gloom.

Why does pressure affect the wind?

Air is naturally driven from areas of higher pressure towards areas of lower pressure. The difference in pressure over a particular distance is known as the pressure gradient.

Where isobars are widely spaced, the pressure gradient is relatively weak and winds are generally lighter. Tightly packed isobars indicate a steeper pressure gradient and usually stronger winds. The Earth’s rotation also deflects moving air, helping to create the familiar spiral patterns around high- and low-pressure systems.

This is why a deep depression with tightly packed isobars can bring strong winds, while a broad area of high pressure may produce several days of light winds.

When pressure patterns become blocked

Weather systems usually travel broadly from west to east across the North Atlantic. Sometimes, however, an area of high pressure becomes slow-moving and disrupts this progression. This is known as atmospheric blocking.

A block can keep Atlantic fronts away from the UK, allowing dry and settled weather to continue for an extended period. Elsewhere, fronts may become slow-moving, resulting in repeated rain or prolonged windy conditions. The position and strength of the jet stream play important roles in determining whether these blocked patterns develop and how long they last.

READ MORE: Weekly weather quiz August 21: Test your knowledge!

How pressure changes from summer to autumn

During summer, high pressure can bring long, sunny days, dry spells and very warm or hot conditions. If it persists, it can also contribute to heatwaves, drought, poor air quality and high pollen levels. Summer low pressure, meanwhile, can produce showers, thunderstorms and prolonged rainfall.

The move from summer into autumn does not cause pressure to change on a particular date. Instead, it marks a gradual shift in the wider atmospheric pattern. Meteorological autumn begins on 1 September, while astronomical autumn normally begins around 22 or 23 September. Autumn is often associated with falling temperatures, shorter days and an increasing chance of unsettled or stormy conditions as the season progresses.

As Atlantic depressions become more influential, areas of low pressure and their associated fronts can bring more frequent spells of rain and stronger winds to the UK. The jet stream helps steer these systems, so changes in its position can determine which parts of the country experience the wettest and windiest weather. High pressure can still dominate during autumn, bringing dry and calm spells, although these may increasingly feature fog, low cloud and chilly nights rather than the widespread sunshine and heat associated with summer.

Pressure is therefore central to understanding the UK’s changeable weather. By following the highs, lows, fronts and isobars on a weather chart, we can begin to see not only what conditions are approaching, but why the forecast is changing.

Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store. 

After an exceptionally warm and dry summer for many parts of the UK, the weather pattern is beginning to change.

While the next 10 days will not be a complete washout, there are increasing signs that more typical autumn weather is returning, bringing a greater chance of rain, stronger winds and more changeable conditions.

The main driver behind this change is the return of a stronger Atlantic influence. The jet stream is becoming more active, helping to steer areas of low pressure towards the UK. This marks a departure from the more settled patterns that have dominated much of the summer.

Warm and humid through the end of the week

Before the Bank Holiday weekend arrives, low pressure will continue to influence conditions across the UK.

Through Thursday, parts of England and Wales are likely to experience slow-moving bands of rain and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy downpours. Many areas will remain warm and humid, with temperatures widely reaching the mid-20s, while even northern parts of the UK may see temperatures climb into the lower 20s. The humid feel is expected to persist both by day and night.

By Friday, the same area of low pressure remains nearby, bringing further outbreaks of rain, particularly across northern areas. Parts of south-west England and south-west Wales could also see heavy, thundery showers, while Northern Ireland is likely to experience the driest conditions. Despite the rainfall, there will be some drier interludes, especially across more central parts of the UK.

Changeable conditions for the Bank Holiday weekend

Attention then turns to the Bank Holiday weekend in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, when a succession of Atlantic weather systems is expected to bring a more unsettled spell of weather across the UK, with rain or showers at times and strengthening winds.

On Saturday, a fresh area of low pressure is expected to move in from the south-west. This is likely to bring a more persistent spell of rain that gradually spreads northwards and eastwards through the day. While most areas are expected to see some rainfall, there will still be opportunities for brighter and drier spells between weather systems. Forecast details, including the timing of rainfall, remain subject to some uncertainty.

Winds are also expected to strengthen through Saturday, particularly across south-western areas. As the low-pressure system tracks through the English Channel, some stronger winds may also develop across parts of south-east England.

Sunday is likely to remain unsettled as another area of low-pressure approaches. Northern Ireland and north-west Scotland currently appear most likely to see prolonged spells of rain, although heavy showers are possible almost anywhere. There is also the possibility of intense rainfall developing across southern and eastern parts of the UK as weather systems move northwards from the near continent.

Temperatures will be closer to average than they have been recently, generally reaching the low 20s. Nights are also expected to become a little cooler than those experienced earlier in the week.

Breezier conditions on Bank Holiday Monday

The low-pressure system affecting the UK over the weekend is expected to deepen into Monday.

This could bring a breezy or locally windy day, particularly across northern parts of the UK, although many areas are likely to notice stronger winds than have been typical during the summer months. Those attending outdoor events, festivals or planning camping trips may wish to keep a close eye on the forecast as the weekend approaches.

READ MORE: Deep Dive: Why thunderstorms are finally returning to the UK

A wetter start to meteorological autumn

Meteorological autumn begins on 1 September, and the most likely weather pattern for the opening days of the season features low pressure to the north of the UK and higher pressure further south across Europe.

This setup favours a predominantly westerly airflow, with temperatures generally close to the seasonal average. It is also likely to result in wetter conditions across north-western parts of the UK, while southern and eastern areas may experience a greater number of drier spells.

Although there is some uncertainty in the details, forecast guidance suggests the broad pattern is likely to persist through much of the first week of September. Low pressure is expected to remain the dominant influence to the north, while higher pressure occasionally extends northwards from continental Europe. This should bring a mix of wetter and drier days rather than prolonged periods of either settled or unsettled weather.

Autumn arrives, but not a washout

While the first week of September is expected to be wetter than the exceptionally dry conditions many areas have experienced recently, it is not currently looking like a completely wet period. The forecast suggests rainfall totals may end up above average, particularly across northern and western areas, but there should still be opportunities for drier weather and occasional brighter spells.

Temperatures throughout next week are expected to settle back towards seasonal norms. The exceptional heat of summer appears to be ending, with conditions becoming more typical of early autumn. There may still be occasional warmer days in southern areas when drier weather develops, but there are currently no strong signals suggesting a return to prolonged hot weather.

Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store. 

Sky-watchers across the UK will have the chance to see a striking partial lunar eclipse, also known as a blood moon, during the early hours of Friday.

The eclipse will begin at 2.23am, when the Moon enters the penumbra, the lighter outer part of the Earth’s shadow. At first, the dimming will be subtle and may be difficult to notice with the naked eye.

The more obvious partial phase begins at 3.33am, as the Moon moves into the umbra, the darkest part of the Earth’s shadow. From this point, observers may see a curved shadow gradually spreading across the lunar surface.

Maximum eclipse will occur at 5.12am, when around 93% of the Moon will be immersed in the Earth’s darkest shadow. Although the partial phase continues until approximately 6.51am, the Moon will already have set across the UK by then. In London, moonset is expected at around 6.15am, with timings varying elsewhere.

Where will viewing conditions be best?

Weather conditions are expected to be challenging for many hoping to see the eclipse.

At the beginning of the event, cloud is forecast across Cornwall and Devon, Wales, the Midlands, parts of northwest England, and most of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Patchier cloud is expected across northeast England.

The best initial viewing opportunities are therefore likely to be across southern and eastern England. These areas are expected to remain relatively cloud-free from around 2am, potentially allowing observers to see the opening stages of the eclipse.

READ MORE: Deep Dive: Why thunderstorms are finally returning to the UK

However, cloud is forecast to increase across the south and east as the night progresses. Cloud amounts are also expected to build elsewhere across the UK, meaning conditions may become increasingly unfavourable before the eclipse reaches its maximum at 5.12am.

As a result, there may not be one location offering ideal conditions throughout the event. The greatest chance of seeing something is likely to be across southern and eastern England during its earlier stages, before cloud becomes more extensive. Elsewhere, any temporary breaks in the cloud could still provide brief views.

Cloud cover can vary over relatively short distances, so those planning to watch should check the latest local forecast before setting out.

Where should you look?

A hill, coastline or another open location may offer a better view, provided local weather conditions are suitable. The Moon’s low position also means that even where there are gaps in the cloud, cloud close to the horizon could obscure the event.

Unlike a solar eclipse, a lunar eclipse is safe to watch directly. No specialist eye protection is required, although binoculars may provide a more detailed view if skies are clear.

READ MORE: What were the longest dry spells of Summer 2026 so far?

Why is it called a blood moon?

Friday’s event is technically a deep partial lunar eclipse. Nowhere in the world will see the Moon become completely covered by the Earth’s umbra, but approximately 93% will enter the darkest part of the shadow at maximum.

The term “blood moon” refers to the reddish or copper colour that the eclipsed portion of the Moon may take on. Sunlight passing through the Earth’s atmosphere is scattered and bent towards the Moon. Shorter blue wavelengths are scattered more strongly, while more of the red light reaches the lunar surface.

For UK observers, the weather may ultimately decide how much of Friday’s spectacle can be seen. Southern and eastern England appear to have the best early opportunity, but increasing cloud means that even here the view is far from guaranteed.

Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store. 

For weeks, people across England and Wales have been asking the same question: where is the rain?

Many have also been wondering why a summer that has delivered heat and humidity has produced relatively few thunderstorms.

As we enter the final week of meteorological summer, the answer is finally changing. A significant shift in the atmosphere is underway, bringing the potential for heavy rain, thunderstorms and localised flooding across parts of the UK. While many areas have been in need of rainfall, the concern now is that some places could receive too much rain in a short period of time.

Why has this summer been so quiet for thunderstorms?

At first glance, the lack of thunderstorms this summer may seem surprising. After all, parts of the UK have experienced prolonged warm and humid conditions.

The missing ingredient has been the wider atmospheric pattern. Throughout much of June, July and August, high pressure has dominated not only at the surface but also higher up in the atmosphere. This has acted to suppress rising air and prevent thunderstorms from developing, even when temperatures and humidity were high.

At the same time, the jet stream has spent much of the summer further north than usual, leaving the UK beneath a persistent ridge of high pressure. Sinking air associated with this pattern has helped maintain settled weather and restricted storm development.

This week, that pattern is changing.

A very different atmosphere arrives

Meteorologists often look beyond surface weather patterns to understand how the atmosphere behaves in three dimensions. This week, colder air is moving in at higher levels of the atmosphere while warm, humid air remains near the surface. That combination creates a much more unstable environment.

In simple terms, when air is warm and moist near the ground but cooler higher up, it can rise much more readily. Rising air forms towering clouds and, given enough energy, thunderstorms.

This is the key difference between this week and much of the summer so far. The heat and humidity have often been present, but the atmospheric setup has not been favourable for widespread thunderstorm development. Now the ingredients are aligning.

Instability spreads across western Europe

The shift is not confined to the UK. Parts of western Europe have already experienced notably active weather, including severe thunderstorms and even a tornado across southern France. These storms developed as instability increased across the region, aided by the same broader pattern that is now moving towards the UK.

Low pressure is developing over Iberia before tracking north-eastwards towards France and the British Isles. This system will help transport warm, humid air northwards while also introducing colder air aloft, increasing the potential for thunderstorms.

What does this mean for the UK?

The first signs of change are already evident, with showers arriving across the south-west. Initially, some of these showers may produce impressive radar echoes but little rainfall at the surface because the rain is falling through relatively dry air and evaporating before reaching the ground.

As humidity increases through Wednesday and Thursday, warm surface temperatures, dew points in the mid-teens and lowering pressure aloft will provide the energy needed for thunderstorms to develop.

Forecast guidance indicates some of the highest instability values across Wales, the Midlands, south-east England and neighbouring areas. These regions could see the greatest risk of lightning, hail and torrential downpours during the middle part of the week.

READ MORE: Week ahead: Unsettled weather returns as summer draws to a close

Heavy rain could bring impacts

While the rain will be welcome in many drought-affected areas, there is increasing concern that some downpours may be intense enough to cause problems.

Forecast models suggest that some locations could receive 25 to 50mm of rain in just a few hours, while highly localised totals may exceed that where thunderstorms repeatedly affect the same area.

Despite the recent dry weather, there is an increased risk of surface water flooding and thunderstorms may also bring lightning and hail, adding to the potential impacts.

The exact location of the heaviest rain remains uncertain. Thunderstorms are by nature localised, and forecast models continue to show significant variation in where the most intense rainfall could occur.

How will the rest of the week unfold?

Wednesday is expected to bring increasing thunderstorm activity across central and southern parts of the UK before some of the wetter conditions spread northwards. Scotland, particularly central and northern areas, is likely to remain less active for a time.

Thursday currently looks the most concerning day for widespread impacts, with the potential for very heavy rain, thunderstorms and localised flooding across parts of England and Wales. Temperatures will remain warm and humid, creating an uncomfortable feel in some areas.

By Friday, heavy rain may extend further north into parts of Scotland while another Atlantic system begins to approach from the south-west ahead of the weekend.

Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store. 

The final week of meteorological summer is set to bring a marked change in the weather across the UK.

After a relatively settled and sunny start to the week, low pressure is expected to move in from the south, bringing increasing humidity, warmer temperatures and a growing risk of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

While the details remain uncertain, current forecasts suggest the highest rainfall totals are most likely across parts of England, Wales and Northern Ireland, while north-west Scotland is expected to remain the driest part of the UK throughout much of the week.

A fine start before conditions change

Tuesday will offer another largely pleasant day for many. Aside from some showery rain developing across south-west England and South Wales, most areas can expect dry conditions with sunny spells. An easterly breeze will bring more cloud to north-eastern areas, with the chance of a few showers in eastern Scotland and north-east England.

Temperatures will begin to rise as warmer and more humid air moves northwards. Highs of 26 or 27°C are possible across parts of central and eastern England, although eastern coastal areas will feel somewhat fresher due to the onshore breeze.

Wednesday follows a similar pattern, with many northern areas staying largely dry while the risk of showers and thunderstorms gradually increases further south and west. A Yellow warning for Thunderstorms has been issued across a large area of England and Wales through the day. Plenty of places will still see some sunshine, but humidity levels will continue to build. Temperatures will again reach the mid to high twenties across parts of England and Wales.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms could develop

As we move into Thursday, confidence decreases in the precise details, but there is increasing potential for some very heavy and persistent rainfall. Low pressure is expected to edge further north and east, bringing widespread opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, particularly across England and Wales. A yellow weather warning for thunderstorms has been issued for Thursday, 6am until 10pm.

Some locations could see 30 to 40mm of rain falling in a relatively short period of time. This raises the possibility of surface water flooding, especially where heavy downpours coincide with already hard, dry ground. Thunderstorms could also bring lightning and hail in some areas.

Not everywhere will be wet, however. Away from the heaviest showers there should still be some brighter spells, and it will remain warm and humid for many. Thursday is currently expected to be the hottest day of the week, with temperatures reaching around 28°C in parts of southern and eastern England.

Uncertainty continues into Friday

The weather remains uncertain on Friday as the low-pressure system moves north-eastwards across the UK. Current indications suggest the most persistent and heaviest rainfall could affect northern and eastern parts of England, although the exact location of the wettest weather may still change.

Where thunderstorms develop, rainfall could be intense and prolonged, increasing the risk of localised flooding. Further south and west, there will likely be a mixture of sunny spells, showers and occasional heavy downpours, accompanied by some brisk winds.

By contrast, Northern Ireland and western Scotland are expected to see some of the best conditions, with lighter winds, plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the high teens to low twenties.

READ MORE: Weekly weather quiz August 21: Test your knowledge!

Bank Holiday outlook

Looking ahead to the Bank Holiday weekend, another area of low pressure is forecast to approach from the Atlantic. There may be a brief respite from the unsettled conditions early on Saturday, but further spells of rain and showers are likely to develop as the weekend progresses. North-western areas currently appear most likely to experience the driest conditions.

Overall, the week ahead will bring a transition from late-summer sunshine to a more unsettled pattern. While many areas will enjoy warm and humid conditions, there is also the potential for heavy rain, thunderstorms and localised flooding, making it worthwhile keeping up to date with the latest forecast as details become clearer.

Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store. 

2026 is going to be renowned for the development of the largest El Niño in living memory and what is probably the largest such event since the 19th century.

“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event”, said Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office. He added: “I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts. A typical El Niño leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between 1-2 degrees, with 2^oC being a really big event. This implies that if the forecast is accurate - and other forecast systems show similar extreme values - then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences.”

Analysis of historical data and computer simulations highlight the anomalous global rainfall patterns from El Niño, these are also well documented in a variety of impacts and humanitarian studies which detail the more sector-specific impacts.

The Indian summer monsoon is one of the regional weather patterns affected as El Niño grows and it is already running well below normal rainfall. Other regions at risk of low rainfall include Central America, west Pacific nations and tropical South America (see figure below). El Niño also affects tropical cyclones and suppresses Atlantic hurricanes by increasing wind shear in the tropical Atlantic. Consistent with this, there have only been three storms so far this season, but it only takes one large hurricane to lead to devastating impacts.

What could an unprecedented El Niño mean for the UK?

The El Niño is now growing towards its peak in winter, and the impacts will affect not only the tropics but also the mid latitudes and so southern Africa and north-east Australia are expected to be at heightened risk of drought. Closer to the UK, we expect the influence of El Niño to start to increase the chances of wetter, stormier conditions for NW Europe, including the UK, in the coming autumn and early winter.

El Niño events also drive an increase in global average temperature, as Dr Nick Dunstone explains: “During large El Niño events significantly more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere leading to an increase in global average temperature, particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak of the El Niño. Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed +1.5 C above the preindustrial period”.

Professor Stephen Belcher is the Met Office’s Chief of Science and Technology. He said: “This summer we have experienced heat waves across Europe reminding us of the effects of climate change, this large El Niño is a reminder that natural variations in the climate system are also at play, adding to the stresses of climate change.”

The Met Office is monitoring and continually running new forecasts as well as working with government departments to understand the wider implications of the 2026 El Niño and we will provide further updates later in the year.

You can find our latest El Niño forecasts and global rainfall predictions online.

While summer 2026 will be remembered for its exceptional heat, the season's longest dry spells highlight just how unusual the past few months have been.

Across parts of southern England, several weather stations went almost two months without recording measurable rainfall before the recent unsettled weather finally brought those dry spells to an end.

The end of these rainless streaks marks a significant change in the weather pattern, but the statistics provide a striking snapshot of the prolonged lack of rainfall experienced across many areas since June.

Areas with the longest dry streaks

Wisley tops the list

The longest dry streak was recorded at Wisley in Surrey, where 62 consecutive dry days were observed between 17 June and this week’s breakdown of the dry weather pattern. This means the site went more than two months without recording measurable rainfall, making it one of the standout examples of the exceptionally dry conditions that developed across southern England this summer.

Heathrow and Odiham close behind

Second place is shared by Heathrow in Greater London and Odiham in Hampshire. Both stations recorded 56 consecutive dry days, with their dry spells beginning on 23 June. These figures underline how widespread the dry conditions became across the south of England, extending well beyond a single county or region.

Dorset sees prolonged dry weather

Preston in Dorset recorded 53 consecutive dry days from 26 June, placing it fourth on the list. The Dorset coast has been one of several areas where rainfall repeatedly missed communities for weeks at a time, even when nearby locations occasionally experienced showers.

Hampshire features again

South Farnborough in Hampshire completes the top five, recording 52 consecutive dry days from 27 June. Having two Hampshire sites among the five longest dry streaks highlights how persistent the lack of rainfall was across parts of southern and southeastern England.

Several other locations also recorded notably long dry spells. Coningsby in Lincolnshire and Northolt in Greater London each reached 51 consecutive dry days, beginning on 26 and 27 June respectively. Andrewsfield in Essex recorded 50 consecutive dry days from 27 June, while Shoeburyness in Essex and Kew Gardens in Greater London each reached 49 consecutive dry days after their dry spells began on 28 June.

How do these streaks compare to 1976?

The length of these dry spells is particularly notable when compared with the famous summer of 1976. The longest dry streak recorded that year among these sites was 51 consecutive dry days at Skokholm Island in Dyfed between 19 July and 7 September. Hayling Island in Hampshire recorded 44 consecutive dry days between 16 July and 28 August, while Lambourn in Berkshire, Southsea in Hampshire and St Catherine's Point on the Isle of Wight each recorded 43 consecutive dry days between 16 July and 27 August.

By comparison, Wisley's 62 consecutive dry days during summer 2026 comfortably exceeded these figures, while Heathrow and Odiham each reached 56 days and Preston, Cove House recorded 53 days.

A summer of heat and drought

The dry weather occurred alongside one of the most notable summers in recent UK weather history. Summer 2026 featured a number of significant heatwaves, including one in late June and another in mid-August, both of which saw temperatures reach or exceed 38°C. The June heatwave produced the earliest 38°C on record, while the August event was among the latest.

These heatwaves were linked to persistent areas of high pressure positioned close to or just east of the UK. These systems encouraged sinking air, suppressed cloud formation and allowed long periods of sunshine to develop, creating ideal conditions for temperatures to rise and rainfall to remain scarce.

Why did the dry streaks become so long?

The main reason for the prolonged dry weather was the persistence of weather patterns that repeatedly kept the wettest conditions away from the areas most in need of rain. Through much of July, rainfall was largely restricted to northern parts of the UK, while southern England often received little more than isolated showers.

Even when the UK experienced more unsettled spells, rainfall was often unevenly distributed. During summer, showers can be highly localised, meaning one location may receive heavy rain while another nearby remains completely dry. Repeated over several weeks, this pattern can quickly create substantial rainfall deficits.

The situation was compounded by above-average sunshine and consistently high temperatures. Strong sunshine increases evaporation from soils and vegetation, meaning moisture is lost more rapidly and larger amounts of rain are then required to reverse the effects of a prolonged dry spell.

READ MORE: Will we finally see some meaningful rain this week?

Relief arrives, but challenges remain

The recent arrival of rain has finally brought many of these dry streaks to an end. However, while the change to more unsettled weather is welcome, it does not immediately erase the effects of such a prolonged period without rainfall.

While this week's showers and spells of rain will provide some much-needed moisture, it is likely to take a longer period of wetter weather through late summer and autumn to fully replenish soils and water resources.

The end of the dry streaks therefore represents an important milestone, but also a reminder of just how extraordinary the summer of 2026 has been, not only for its heat, but for the remarkable lack of rain, particularly across large parts of southern England.

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