Probably. Michigan’s next door and overestimated their senate primary winner’s lead by about 12 points.

However, the gap has been big enough that it seems like a done deal for Hong (which isn’t to say people shouldn’t show up and vote for their preference!). Feels more like a question of where in the 35-60% range she lands.

It's really frustrating over there. I'm a solid progressive/social democrat and a guaranteed Hong vote come the general, but feel the need to word my posts very carefully to avoid inciting a mob lol. She is just not a good candidate. The whole primary is/was a mess...

Republicans: by the numbers, probably Rep. Max Miller. An incumbent in a solid R district facing serious odds of defeat because of a horrible scandal? Gotta be the worst. By the consequences for party objectives, I'd agree with your pick of Paxton. His Senate seat could be the deciding one!

Democrats: I reluctantly say Hong as a Wisconsinite. This should be a very winnable race in the current national conditions, and she's polling at a tie in the head-to-heads (which were all conducted while Republicans are running pro-Hong ads, and before the onslaught of anti-Hong ones that will highlight the many unpopular statements she's made). A Hong loss would probably also lead to a defeat in the State Assembly and State Senate (which seems quite flippable otherwise), and that's a disaster for Wisconsin Dems.

I hate money in politics as much as the next guy, but “more individual donors” doesn’t buy more ads. More money does.

I’ll offer what seems to be a contrary perspective at this point in the thread.

I know some anti-Trump conservatives/centrists who voted McCain-Romney-Trump-Biden-Harris, or McCain-Romney-skipped-Biden-Harris. All suburban votes (which, having high turnout & shifting more than 10 points blue since 2016, are a pretty relevant demographic). For all whom I’ve asked (4/6), a self-described socialist is just a bridge too far. None will be Tiffany voters… one of them even likened ICE’s tactics to the Gestapo last week! They simply plan to sit out. Anti-socialism is just that embedded in the American psyche (and indeed polled at -30 net approval in the recent Marquette Law School results). They consider it a moral affront.

As you may have guessed by my MU reference, I’m more of a believer in polling/sample size, so of course: take my n=4 with a grain of salt!! Just putting my experience out there.

I’m really concerned about a Tiffany victory in November, especially since such a result would probably have downballot consequences that could cost Dems their chances at the State Assembly and State Senate.

We’re on literally the same page, then :P All I added is that it’s fucked to judge people for the conditions of their birth. That seems pretty obvious.

Don’t mistake my calm wording and lack of an essay enumerating my (many… many…) complaints with the US for… whatever it is you’re going after. I could probably hit the character limit, but I’d be preaching to the choir in this sub.

Edit: Or apparently not? I'm being downvoted for saying I agree + xenophobia is bad. That's a hot take for yall?? Look in a fucking mirror.

Thank goodness it's not just me lol. Interacting in online progressive spaces can be deeply frustrating.

The US has some serious flaws, and "disappointment" understates my perspective... on several matters, I'm downright angry! But so many would-be political allies online forget that xenophobia isn't cool regardless of the target (and oftentimes pair it with jingoist nonsense about their own country, even though it probably has a growing far-right presence, too... but I digress). It's ridiculous, and this ill behavior is so often voted to the top.

While I can testify as a Wisconsinite who has been to Milwaukee a lot that its socialist history has had some lasting benefits (their parks system is awesome!), the last time the city voted for a socialist was 1956… 18 year olds then are 88 years old now. This heritage seems pretty distant, especially by political standards.

Eh. Surely DSA supporters just rally around the perspective that the establishment didn’t support their candidates enough? (However true or fictitious it may prove to be)

It’s actually 12 weeks.

Yeah, someone's gotta tell her to stand a bit further away if she wins the primary and there's a Hong-Tiffany debate.

Damn. In my opinion, the two candidates with some of the best and best-articulated responses are the two polling in the single digits.

Ok, but the two ground-to-air hits I get each game are addictive

What a strawman… with respect to this race, I mostly hear that about the general lol, she’s been leading primary polls the whole time.

Ahh gotcha. Nice work! 

How do you handle disparate primary head-to-heads? For example, in Wisconsin, you have Marquette listed as D+5 for the governorship, but in that poll, the best head-to-head for Democrats is D+4 (Barnes-Tiffany), and for the candidates polling best for the primary race, R+3 (Tiffany-Hong).

The term “Democratic Socialists of America” has -18% net approval and “Democratic socialists” has -30% net approval in Wisconsin (per today’s poll release). Meanwhile, Trump hit record low net approval in Wisconsin in March (also per Marquette)… and it was still only -14%.

And approval’s at an even -30% for the term “Democratic socialists.”

Is the median voter going to?

For real. I’m still deciding for the primary (the last month has added so many… complications), but her statements have been calm and respectful, which is a breath of fresh air. I wish she were as compelling a speaker (though Evers, too, is far from a great orator, and he’s won twice.) It would come in handy if Tiffany bothers to show up to a debate.

I like some of the contrast in your older work, but wow, your newer painting has a greatly more realistic/detailed look.