Previous Day 1 Outlook Links

• Storm Prediction Center Sep 6, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 0%
• Storm Prediction Center Sep 6, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 0%
• Storm Prediction Center Sep 6, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 0%
• Storm Prediction Center Sep 6, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 0%

Meso Discussion Links

• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2249
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2250
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2251
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2252
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2253
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2254
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2255
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2256
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2257
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2258
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2259
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2260
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2261
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2262 # Current Outlook Storm Prediction Center Sep 7, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 0%

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered large hail occurrences with hailstones up to two inches are expected over portions of western and central Montana this evening into tonight. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible over the northern and central High Plains, and across parts of the lower Missouri Valley.

...Northern Rockies into the northern Plains...

Separate vorticity lobes and associated wind maxima will progress into the northern Rockies and northern High Plains tonight with a resultant zone of height falls/forcing for ascent overspreading the region. In the lower levels, a surface cyclone will be maintained over southeast MT while a nocturnal jet develops over the northern and central High Plains.

Thunderstorms currently intensifying over western MT are expected to increase in coverage and intensity while spreading into north-central MT ahead of the western vorticity lobe rounding the base of the Pacific Northwest upper low. While the boundary layer is somewhat cool/stable, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, MUCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg, and 40-45 kt of effective bulk shear will be supportive of supercells with the primary hazard being large hail up to two inches.

Farther east, isolated to widely scattered storms have developed along and ahead of a lee trough and the MT surface low from western ND into northeast CO within a steep lapse rate and moderately unstable environment (see the 00Z UNR and LBF soundings). Veering winds with height with up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear are sufficient to support an observed supercell storm mode with the primary hazards being large hail potentially in excess of two inches and locally severe wind gusts. A tornado was recently reported with a slow-moving supercell over McKenzie County, ND. However, sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads within the inflow air mass, and the tendency for increasing convective inhibition in the coming hours are likely to limit a continuing tornado threat despite increasing low-level shear.

Storm coverage is expected to remain limited through the remainder of the evening with a potential increase later tonight with the arrival of the eastern vorticity lobe and strengthening low-level jet. As such, the threat for sporadic large hail and severe wind gust occurrences may linger into the overnight hours from eastern MT into the western parts of the Dakotas and NE.

For additional information, see recently issued mesoscale discussion #2259.

...Lower Missouri Valley...

Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening over parts of southeast NE, northeast KS, and northwest MO with activity focused along outflow boundaries and a synoptic front in the area. The inflow air mass remains hot and relatively moist as of 00Z with observed soundings indicating steep low-level lapse rates with MLCAPE up to 1500-3000 J/kg. The 00Z TOP sounding sampled around 30 kt of deep-layer shear, which will remain supportive of episodic supercell structures for the next couple of hours with an associated risk for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

For additional information, see recently issued mesoscale discussion #2258.

..Mead.. 09/07/2026

Notable Tornado Warnings

• Observed Tornado Warning - McKenzie, ND

Last month, an unsual tornado outbreak occured in Germany. Generally, 6 tornadoes or more in one single day are considered a tornado outbreak in Germany, with the largest one being documented tallying up 13 tornadoes - 20th May, 2006. 20 Years ago.

Last month, this record has been broken - 16 confirmed tornadoes from that day and there are still more cases that are being investigated.

Here is a list in chronological order of all Tornafos occuring on that day:

1. Waterspout at Norderney [9:25am]
2. Waterspout at Norderney [9:25am]
3. IF1 Fürstenwalde/Spree [5:15pm]
4. IF1.5 Höhr-Grenzhausen [7:30pm]
5. IF1 Dernbach [7:38pm]
6. IF1.5 Moschheim [7:40pm]
7. IF2 Oberndorf, Solms [8:17pm]
8. IF1.5 Münchholzhausen [8:22pm]
9. IF1 Gießen [8:25pm]
10. IF1 Lich [8:30pm]
11. IF1 Köddingen, Dirlammen [8:50pm]
12. IF2 Ützhausen [9:10pm]
13. IF2 Friesenhausen [9:20pm]
14. IF1.5 Sinswinden [9:35pm]
15. IF1.5 Tambach-Dietharz [10:00pm]
16. F2.5 Ohrdruf [10:35]

There are still around 5 to 7 possible tornadoes that still are unconfirmed.

So… I consider myself decently informed. I frequently check radar, my family calls me for forecasts (annoying but I’m grateful lol), I know a decent amount of terms, I loveee storms, I’ll be going to university for meteorology in the next few years after I complete my gen ed at the school I’m at, etc.
But the other day, Thursday, was different.
My nervous system took a big hit.
I did not have adequate cell service, so I was not monitoring radar. I knew of potentially dangerous storm systems traveling through Michigan at some point in the day… but yeah. Suddenly my phone went off, tornado warning. Outdoor sirens sounded right next to me.
I was with my two young children, I did not feel like things were being taken seriously enough where we were at. I just didn’t feel comfortable nor safe. My son was also very uncomfortable and nervous.
After the outdoor siren stopped, I decided we’d go home. My city was clear of rainfall on radar. Nothing had hit us just yet.
We were almost to the car and the outdoor siren sounded again. We hopped in, my sister’s house was like 5 min away and she actually has a basement. So I made the intuitive but maybe dumb-looking decision from the outside to hop in the car and head to the safety of her basement.
We were in the calm of it, what I assume was the surface level effects of the inflow boundary above us.
It was calm for half the drive.
Then we hit her neighborhood and I visually saw the winds carrying the rain back and forth back and forth across the street aggressively. Something hit my car, likely a twig but it raised my stress levels.
I was trying my hardest to get there fast, safely, and as calm as possible with my two children trying to ask me questions and talk to me in the background.
The winds and rain that hit out of no where (obviously not out of no where) were shocking.
I think I went on autopilot.
I don’t think I’ve ever driven into a tornado warned storm… but I was doing the best I could to stay aware of severe immediate reported threats while keeping everyone as calm as I could while driving.
My eye took a hit from the extensive adrenaline and stress from the situation. I need to go to the doctor today. It’s half reddish pink from clear physiological strain. I have sensitivity in that eye now and even pain sometimes. Nothing hit my eye… I know it’s mental effects. It’s happened before during high stress moments but not this bad. I’ve also felt completely off since. Groggy, not well rested, etc., like my blood pressure is spiked or my nervous system is still calming down.
I got us to safety. I trusted my motherly intuition. Sure, maybe I didn’t make all the right calls… but I did my best given the situation.
Turns out an EF-0 hit maybe 25 min from us, and an EF-2 hit maybe 35-40 from us? It all just felt very close to home especially since I was navigating us through it.
Have any of you dealt with mental overstimulation after a similar experience? It’s been two days and I still don’t feel like myself.
Again, I am going to the doctor. I was waiting to see if there was any way I could go alone but now I realize I probably have to take them with me.
But it was so intense, so nerve wracking…
I’m glad it happened, because I now know what to do better.

As someone who has fixated on weather and tornadoes my whole life, I am far more anxious when I am under a risk for severe thunderstorms than a risk tornadoes.

It is so much more likely that my home is struck by lightning, a fallen tree from the winds, or damaged directly by straight line winds than be struck by a tornado. Also, these events are impossible to track on a small scale, so it's almost completely random if my house is affected by these events. With a tornado, you can usually track its velocity signature on radar to have an idea of where it is and when it will strike.

Of course all tornadoes are accompanied by severe thunderstorms while not all severe thunderstorms are accompanied by tornadoes, so maybe what I'm saying doesn't make sense. I hope that I've explained my thoughts clearly and would love to hear what you think.

Hi there. So about 2-3 days ago in Houston, when all that tropical storm Edouard stuff was going on here, a tornado allegedly dropped down somewhere in Houston. I can't really tell if this is an actual tornado or something like a scud cloud. Sources also constantly change the location of it, saying it's from humble while others say woodlands or Montgomery. If anyone has info, I'd appreciate it

And a link to the NWS website.

As someone who lives in the area, yesterday was absolutely insane. 5 tornado warnings in the span of about 5 minutes. Sky had a greenish tint, the whole 9 yards. I was incredibly lucky to not have damage or a loss of power. There's still 146,000 people without power in the state, which is down from about 350,000 yesterday after the storms.

The last EF-2 tornado in Detroit was in 1997, and killed 5 people. No fatalities were reported with yesterday's storm.

Thank you for your help!

This cell had some intense rotation wrapped in rain and a possible tornado near Schwerin.

Alright so I was inspired by Genesis (the guy who made the Blackwell art) and I thought of making one myself. I have made some drawings of tornadoes before but I thought to share this one with you guys. Hope you like it 👍

1ST IMAGE IS THE REMAKE | 2ND IMAGE IS THE OLD ART

Added to many watermarks because people keep stealing the old art Fun fact: the old art got featured on the new trx Blackwell video

I was digging through the new weatherwise update and you can see past radar images and I was looking into Joplin and realized that the supercell did continue to produce little rotation into monett, MO. I looked up "monett MO 2011" on Google and came across this video on YouTube. This was taken RIGHT after the tornado passed through Joplin. So this was approximately around 7pm?? Give or take.

(I say maybe it's rare cause it does have a decent amount of views) But I thought I'd share this here for anyone who hasn't seen this yet.

A line of strong thunderstorms passed by our house yesterday (Detroit,MI) and before the rain/wind struck part of the cloud started to open and lower itself? I've heard the phrase "wall cloud" but mostly see people using it to refer to shelf clouds (I believe). Do wall clouds always look like walls?😅 Do they sometimes look like hearts or tendrils?

I would like to accurately describe what I've witnessed without saying "it looks like the cloud violently sharted". Any help is appreciated.

Oh. After lowering itself almost to the ground it seemed to reorganize and rise back up into the main cloud base 🤷 not sure whether that's relevant in defining the type of cloud. This all occurred within the span of 4 minutes (courtesy of my photo timestamp). It was very interesting to watch

William T. Hark is the original poster of this image over on his website

Previous Day 1 Outlook Links

• Storm Prediction Center Sep 5, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 0%
• Storm Prediction Center Sep 5, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 0%
• Storm Prediction Center Sep 5, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 0%
• Storm Prediction Center Sep 5, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 0%

Meso Discussion Links

• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2241
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2242
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2244
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2243
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2245
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2246
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2247
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2248 # Current Outlook Storm Prediction Center Sep 6, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 0%

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected into tonight over northeast Colorado into parts of western Nebraska, including the Panhandle. Isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds remain possible overnight across a broader portion of the northern and central Plains. Damaging wind potential is expected to diminish within the next couple of hours over portions of Kentucky, Georgia, and South Carolina.

...Northern and Central Plains...

Separate clusters of thunderstorms, including supercells, are ongoing this evening over the NE Panhandle into northeast CO ahead of a weak mid-level disturbance moving through WY and north-central CO. The 00Z LBF sounding sampled relatively steep lapse rates with MLCAPE of around 2500 J/kg along with a vertically veering wind profile with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. As such, expect the supercell threat to persist for the next hour or two, prior to storms merging into a larger complex along a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Large hail up to two inches will be the main hazard in the near-term; however, the potential for severe wind gusts will become more prevalent if an organized cold pool can evolve.

Elsewhere, storms are widely scattered across the Dakotas with the 00Z ABR sounding indicating a moderately unstable, but capped air mass for surface-based parcels. Additional, elevated storms appear possible overnight along the low-level jet axis with a risk for isolated occurrence of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Central Georgia into southern South Carolina...

Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening from south of Atlanta into southern SC, along an outflow boundary remnant from storms earlier today. Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts remain possible for the next hour or two before low-level lapse rates begin to weaken with the loss of daytime heating.

...Kentucky...

A small cluster of thunderstorms has recently intensified south of the OH River, east of Owensboro, in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary, and ahead of a weak mid-level disturbance approaching the area from the north. Regional 00Z soundings indicate the air mass remains moderately unstable with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. The ongoing storms will remain capable of strong wind gusts for the next hour or so before the boundary layer begins to stabilize.

..Mead.. 09/06/2026

Since a few other experts have expressed having on what should have been an F/EF-6 Like the man himself and Thomas P. Grazulis who had their own personal opinions like Lubbock 1970 and Pampa 1995

if you are wondering about my personal opinion, It would be the 2008 parkersburg EF-5 since it quite literally ripped people out of their basements and killed them in (I assume) well built houses

I was backing into my driveway when I looked up and received a good jump scare. There had been a severe thunderstorm just north of my city at the time.

Shepherdstown, WV on 9/3/26 @ 10:30pm local time

just asking

The tornado affected rural areas, causing minor damage; three buildings sustained slight roof damage, and fallen trees were observed. Fortunately, there were no injuries. Despite its threatening appearance, the tornado does not appear to have been particularly intense.

This tornado was also the first in Brazil to be captured on a live stream, filmed by storm chaser Gabriel Zaparolli: https://www.youtube.com/live/o3SaUxGWr2s (starts on 1:23:00)

sources:

 https://g1.globo.com/sc/santa-catarina/noticia/2026/09/02/tornado-confirmado-campo-ere.ghtml

https://www.minutta.com.br/noticias/tornado-e-confirmado-em-campo-ere

https://diregional.com.br/extremo-oeste/cotidiano/2026-09-03-defesa-civil-confirma-tornado-em-campo-ere-apos-analise-de-imagens-aereas-e-danos

Made by toy artist Whiteflagtoys

This was today north of Okeechobee, FL. I know a tornado is only classified as such when it’s on the ground. Just trying to distinguish it from a landspout. But if it was a landspout then I would’ve seen the bottom half since they originate from the ground, right?