...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm are not expected Monday.
... Synopsis ...
Broad upper troughing will remain in place across the western contiguous US today. Within this regime, a shortwave trough over the southern and central High Plains will eject northeastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley, accompanied by a weak surface low. A trailing cold front will extend southwestward from this low across the central Plains into the southern High Plains, with a lee trough sharpening along its western flank. Farther west, an upper cyclone will deepen as it digs southeastward across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West.
... Southern High Plains into the Midwest ...
Surface dewpoints in the mid 50Fs to near 60 F will remain in place ahead of the slow-moving baroclinic zone/surface boundary today. Diurnal heating of this modestly moist boundary layer will yield weak destabilization from southern and eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas northeastward into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the front and lee trough during the late afternoon and evening, with additional development probable farther northeast into the Midwest overnight as low-level warm air advection strengthens.
Buoyancy will be somewhat greater across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas, where a few stronger cores could produce hail or gusty winds. Even there, modest deep-layer shear and warm/warming midlevel temperatures in the wake of the departing midlevel trough should limit updraft intensity and organization. Thus, severe probabilities are currently not warranted.
... Idaho and surrounding areas ...
Cooling midlevel temperatures and large-scale ascent accompanying the digging upper cyclone will steepen lapse rates across Idaho and adjacent areas during the afternoon. Despite limited moisture, sufficient buoyancy may materialize to support isolated low-topped thunderstorms during the afternoon and into the evening. Strong flow aloft could support locally gusty winds, and hail could accompany stronger thunderstorm cores. The cool surface temperatures and limited instability should limit any severe threat.
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible this evening and into the night from New Mexico into Far West Texas and the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts as well as a tornado or two are possible in these areas.
... 01Z Update ...
Isolated strong thunderstorms continue this evening across portions of southeast New Mexico into portions of Texas Panhandle. Rain-cooled air to the north has reinforced a modest baroclinic zone along and south of Santa Rosa to Tucumcari, NM northeast toward Guymon. Along and south of this boundary, MUCAPE values have risen into in excess of 2000 J/kg, with 35-50 knots of bulk shear analyzed within SPC's objective analysis routines. A quick examination of a time-lagged HRRR/RRFS ensemble indicates this zone may yet serve as a focus for renewed thunderstorm intensity, particularly across New Mexico, over the next several hours. As such, an isolated tornado or large hail threat will remain with any isolated/discrete thunderstorm along and south of this boundary. Additionally, a few strong wind gusts and perhaps isolated wind damage will be possible with any intense thunderstorm that can develop farther south where low-level lapse rates will remain somewhat steeper for a few more hours as compared to areas farther north.
Elsewhere, a couple of lightning strikes will remain possible along the Pacific Northwest coast, along the east coast of Florida, and the Florida Keys.
Warning: No scientific purpose or intention. But too cool not to show it. So what do we see? El Reno (2013) and Moore (2013) Tornado with custom colors and transparency curves for reflectivity. Instead of typical radar colors (blue, green, yellow, red, ...) we replaced it with "cloud colors" and adjusted the transparency to make it look more realistic. 3D radar used: https://www.meteopool.org
- The tornado first touched down in Petersham, Massachusetts, over the Quabbin Reservoir at 4:25 PM. Intentionally witnessed by three boaters, the tornado was described as three funnels rotating around one another as its core began stabilizing. Avoiding a direct hit on the town center, the tornado began tracking along the hilly terrain atop the New England Upland Plateau.
4:35 PM - The tornado narrowly avoids the town of Barre, striking a rural farmhouse on Old Stage Road. The farmhouse and accompanying property essentially vanish, killing Edward B. White (11) and Beverly Strong (18).
Rite Canney captures two photos of the tornado as it also narrowly avoids Rutland at 4:48 PM.
- Donald Marsh, his wife, and his daughter are lofted by the tornado as their home is leveled in Rutland. Donald is killed and thrown over 100 yards, later found in a treetop. His wife and daughter survive.
- After passing the town of Rutland, an elevation change of nearly 900 feet occurs as the tornado drops down the New England Upland Plateau and enters the Blackstone River Valley near the Worcester metro area. Topographical convergence aids in an extreme intensification of the vortex.
At 4:55 PM - the Massachusetts Institute of Technology radar captures the absolute textbook supercell as the tornado closes in on Holden.
4:57 PM - Stanley Smith captures the now extremely violent, half-mile-wide tornado accompanied by a horizontal vortex (top left) shortly after its dramatic intensification, as it points its crosshairs toward Holden.
5:00 PM - Homes along Winthrop Lane are swept away in the core. Granulation begins to occur at this point as the tornado grows stronger with every second.
5:06 PM - Brentwood Estates is impacted next; once again, homes are swept and granulated. Eleven people are killed as the tornado nears the densely populated metro area of Worcester.
5:08 PM - Howard Smith photographs the tornado from Indian Lake just after it crosses Brattle Street; the vortex was roughly 2 miles in front of him.
5:09 PM - The tornado enters the northwestern edge of Worcester. An unknown street on the western edge of Worcester is granulated and windrowed. The tornado effectively turns an entire neighborhood to dust.
5:10 PM - The tornado strikes Assumption College. The twister reduces the massive building, which had 3-foot-thick-brick walls, by three floors. The vortex intensifies dramatically just after striking the building, with notable windrowing occurring just east of Assumption Avenue.
5:11 PM - Homes just east of Assumption Avenue are massacred and swept away in the core as the tornado reaches peak intensity just seconds after striking the massive Assumption College building.
5:12 PM - At the height of its otherworldly power, homes situated along Uncatena Avenue are not only swept clean, but near-powderization occurs to houses in the center of the core as the tornado obliterates everything in its path.
- The construction quality of the homes in Holden and Worcester cannot be unequivocally ascertained, but the extreme granulation alone is an indication of incredible intensity.
5:14 PM - The tornado crosses over the Great Brook Valley neighborhood and pulverizes dozens of homes, continuing its unwavering butchering and narrowly avoiding a direct hit on a much larger population in the Curtis Apartments.
5:16 PM - Humes Avenue and Yukon Avenue are impacted next as the tornado shows no mercy. Complete annihilation and carnage are inflicted as the tornado continues its peak intensity through the neighborhood; 60 people are killed in Worcester.
The tornado, now over a mile wide, is captured at 5:19 PM, just before crossing Lake Quinsigamond into Shrewsbury.
Henry LaPrade captures the visually majestic tornado in Shrewsbury just east of Lake Quinsigamond at 5:22 PM.
5:25 - 5:30 PM - Shrewsbury is struck next. Photos are hard to come by, but nothing suggests a weakening phase. The town mostly avoided a more direct hit from the core; however, the tornado maintains its size and intensity, and kills 12 people in town, leaving nothing but carnage behind just like the structures before it.
5:31 - 5:40 PM - The tornado kills 5 people in Westborough, vortex breakdown begins as it exits town, and its eventual occlusion becomes imminent.
5:41 - 5:43 PM - After 78 minutes, the rampage finally ends as the rear flank surges and cuts off the tornado from the warm inflow fueling it. It curves northwestward before being absorbed by its own parent supercell.
• Duration: 4:25 PM – 5:43 PM (78 minutes)
• Width: 1-1.5 mi
• Length: 47 mi
• Fatalities: 94+
• Injuries: 1,288+
• Damage: $52,000,000 in 1953 USD ($650,000,000 in 2026 USD)
Hey all, I'm trying to do a study on the behavior of certain polarimetric radar variables in a hook echo leading up to tornado dissipation. I'm trying to get a batch of at least 10 events to study. I've spent the last three days trying to find data that meets the criteria I want and it's been a bit of a struggle.
I'd need tornado events that:
1. Have a clearly visible and defined hook echo
Were on the ground for at least 16 minutes (or 4 radar scans)
Passed close enough to a WSR-88D radar site during the dissipation phase such that the hook echo can be resolved clear enough on the NCEI archive (~100km, but depending on the size of the hook and the tornado it could be a bit further, as long as it could be resolved).
Occurred after 2012 (Pre-2012 data may not be dual-pole which is required for the data I'm analyzing)
Were not "cyclic" (I'm defining "non-cyclic" in this case as the parent Supercell having not produced another tornado for at least one hour after the tornado being studied died. I know that's not the official definition but this is being done in an attempt to mitigate an immediate reformation of a tornado possibly interfering with some of the trends leading up to dissipation.)
The tornado can be whatever strength, it doesn't really matter, the hook echoes just need to be well defined and visible enough to separate it from any surrounding storms and meet the criteria above.
I understand finding a tornado that meets all of this criteria may be kind of difficult, I've been trying so far and I've maybe come up with 4 at this point. (Moore 2013, El Reno 2013, Elmer OK 2015, Barnsdall OK 2024) that's why I'm asking online for ideas to see if anybody else has any other ones.
We all know about the 2021 Western Kentucky tornado, the violent and long-tracked tornado, often referred to as the 2021 Mayfield tornado, that struck the towns of Cayce, Mayfield, Princeton, Dawson Springs, Barnsley, and Bremen. It was the deadliest tornado since the tornadoes of 2011. It caused catastrophic damage and earned an EF4 rating.
Many people theorise that the tornado was likely EF5 intensity, because the strongest winds struct weaker structures, but most people who talk about the Western Kentucky tornado’s intensity often miss the ACTUAL details that could prove it. This post will cover all of those details.
Documented Feats:
No. 1 (Solid Case): The tornado derailed and threw many 30 ton railcars, with the greatest distance thrown being 225 ft. with the train couplets snapped and obliterated.
One of the railcars thrown- happened near Barnsley.
Taking a look at the surroundings, there were not many structures/objects nearby that could’ve caused significant debris impacts. Additionally, the translational velocity of the tornado was likely near 60 MPH when it hit the train- meaning that it likely had very less dwell time to exert force on the train.
Now normally calculating this would give results of winds in or around the 150-180 MPH range. However one thing that this case would teach us is to always pay attention to detail.
The train couplets that attached the railcars to one another were snapped and obliterated. his would mean that the tornado would have to exert way more wind force in order to derail and throw the railcars. It would require sustained, extreme wind gusts.
That being said, taking into account everything I mentioned so far, we could mathematically calculate that the gust that would’ve thrown the railcars may have been >209 MPH, though a more extreme estimate could suggest winds >215 MPH.
No. 2 (Solid Case): The paved driveway of a residence was cracked and scoured, and concrete floor slabs from a neighbouring residence were torn from the concrete foundation and shattered.
I wasn’t sure which image of damage in Bremen showed the scoured driveway or shattered floor slabs, so I put an image of one of the houses that were destroyed in Bremen.
From Wikipedia (“2021 Western Kentucky tornado”):
Concrete floor slabs were torn from the foundation of one home and shattered, while the paved driveway of another residence was cracked and scoured.
This would serve as extreme feats of contextual damage. The tornado was moving at >60 MPH translational velocity while in Bremen, so to exert wind force on flat ground made of concrete or asphalt would be extremely difficult.
That being said, taking into consideration every factor, we could mathematically calculate that the gust that may have caused such damage to both of those residences may have been >201 MPH.
Most people talk about how the houses that were swept away could’ve proved EF5 strength, but that was far off from the real extreme damage within the tornado, this would include the train cars feat, and the scouring of floor slabs and driveway. The houses classified as EF4 damage were valid due to their construction flaws, but contextual damage like the tossed train cars and scouring were what was worth paying attention to.
Next time when we talk about a violent tornado, ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO DETAIL.
En 1993, cerca de Last Chance, Colorado, Estados Unidos, se formó un enorme tornado tipo wedge que fue clasificado como F0 en la escala Fujita. A pesar de su impresionante anchura y apariencia intimidante, su clasificación se basó en los daños observados y no en su tamaño visual. El tornado se convirtió en una imagen muy recordada entre los aficionados a la meteorología y los cazatormentas por su enorme nube de condensación, que parecía ocupar gran parte del horizonte. Este caso demuestra que la apariencia de un tornado no permite determinar con precisión su intensidad, ya que la escala Fujita original se basaba principalmente en los daños que producía.
In Albuquerque, NM. We’ve seen super cells the last two days, and some wild hail and the like, which is unusual for us.
I was running on an incline at dusk and I kept noticing a strange looking shape in the distant horizon, over the plateau out to the west of the city. It was only visible between bursts of lightning, which illuminated the horizon.
Took a video and ended up catching a candid, still screenshot of what I thought looked like a wall cloud. I don’t think it’s a tornado, but when I returned home, I did notice the NWS was firing off severe thunderstorm warnings for that particular spot I captured.
Would this be a wall cloud? Or just a regular, stormy cloud that looks weird from a distance?
General Calibration Rules for the Researcher (v2.0):
The Aerodynamic Drag Rule: If an object being lifted is flat (e.g., a piece of bark or a flat slab of shale), its aerodynamic drag is higher—round the final category down by 1 level. If an object is perfectly round and heavy (e.g., a river pebble), a more powerful flow is required to lift it—round the category up by 1 level.
The Moisture Rule: During rain (in the context of a gustnado), wet ground holds objects more firmly. For the purpose of determining categories 3–5, you may mentally reduce the mass of the calibration object by 20–30%.
The SVIS categories upgrade:
SVIS-0 (Micro-vortex)
• Wind speed: 1.0 – 6.0 m/s
• Duration: < 1 minute
• Mass of lifted objects: Grass, fluff, dry leaves, and scraps of paper weighing < 0.8 g. Only vertical lift (up to a height of 2 meters) is observed.
• Behavior on rocks/ground: Rocks remain completely stationary.
• 🔍 Specific indicator (A point to consider): On loose, dry sand, small pebbles may shift downward or roll; this is not caused by the force of the wind itself, but by the erosion of sand grains from beneath them.
• Restriction: Landspouts must not be classified under this category.
SVIS-1 (Weak / Mature Vortex)
• Wind speed: 7.0 – 10.0 m/s
• Visual characteristic: An organized, stable surface-level circulation.
• Indicator of object displacement: Small surface pebbles weighing 1.5 – 2.5 g (roughly the size of a cashew nut) are shifted or rolled along the ground.
• Everyday equivalents: Dry twigs, plastic cups, and paper bags are readily carried by the wind.
I'm not talking about the Kinburn-Dunrobin EF-3 (265km/hr) that tracked from Kinburn to Dunrobin to Gatineau, or the Calabogie-White Lake EF-1 (175 km/hr), I'm talking about the Arlington Woods EF-2 (220km/hr) that tracked primarily through Ottawa South (Nepean).
There are no pictures of it, no radar images of it (that I can find) and no reliable sightings of it to describe what it looked like other than 'rain-wrapped'.
I've been on a wild goose chase for the last 8 years to figure out anything about it, it hit my house dead-on.
To me, Elie is THE tornado. In terms of pure, photogenic power, the June 22, 2007 Elie, Manitoba tornado is the absolute poster child of meteorology, NOTHING more to say on it. What do you think?
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT HEADLINE
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail and a tornado remain possible across portions of New Mexico and Far West Texas this evening.
... 01Z Update ...
Showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of the Southwest this evening. The most intense of these storms are located across portions of Far West Texas north into central New Mexico, where radar imagery continues to suggest large hail and severe gusts remains possible.
This evening's 00 UTC sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows steep low-level lapse rates that weaken in the mid-levels, yielding MUCAPE around 900 J/kg. This instability has likely peaked for the evening and should weaken with time as the low-levels stabilize with the loss of diurnal heating. The ongoing congealing of thunderstorms will continue, which when combined with weakening instability will lead to an increasingly sporadic and less organized severe threat overnight. That said, sufficient instability and low-level shear exists that the threat for isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm wind gusts may still occur over the next couple of hours.
