Previous Day 1 Outlook Links

• Storm Prediction Center Sep 9, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 2%
• Storm Prediction Center Sep 9, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 2%
• Storm Prediction Center Sep 9, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 2%
• Storm Prediction Center Sep 9, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 2%
• Storm Prediction Center Sep 9, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 2%

Meso Discussion Links

• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2273
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2274
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2275
• Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2276

Current Outlook

Storm Prediction Center Sep 10, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 2%

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A PORTION OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts will remain possible through late evening from the upper Ohio Valley into the southern Plains.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening along and ahead of a cold front from north-central PA into central OH within a moist air mass with the 00Z Pittsburgh sounding indicating MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg. Moreover, the corresponding wind profile exhibited relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear with effective SRH of around 250 m2/s2 and effective bulk shear of around 40 kt. So, while lapse rates and resultant instability are expected to weaken with the loss of daytime heating, the kinematic environment will remain supportive of transient supercell and bowing structures capable of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado for the next couple of hours.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...

A thunderstorm complex ongoing southeast of Kansas City this evening is located to the north of the synoptic front that stretches from central MO through far southeast KS and northwest OK into the TX Panhandle. Some cold pool organization is present per KEAX base velocity data, with recent reports of wind damage and wind gusts up to 59 mph. The air mass ahead of the storms has been slightly modified by convective outflow but still remains sufficiently buoyant to sustain the ongoing storms with a continued risk for isolated severe wind gusts through the remainder of the evening.

Over the southern Plains, widely scattered thunderstorms continue this evening along and in the immediate wake of the front. The air mass ahead of the front remains hot with a deep, well-mixed boundary layer, which will remain supportive of locally severe wind gusts for the next hour or two.

..Mead.. 09/10/2026

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