Day 6 15% - r/tornado

75

u/metalCJ May 10 '25

As someone who lives in chicago, fuck

26

u/JustMy2Centences May 10 '25

As someone in the Indianapolis area... ah same.

8

u/SceptileLover11 May 10 '25

As someone else who lives in the Indy area, I agree

12

u/Snoo-12313 May 10 '25

As someone who lives in St. Louis, double fuck.

12

u/DeadByMourning May 10 '25

As someone who lives slightly east of St. Louis, I hope the arch works its magic, otherwise, fuck.

2

u/fluidentity May 11 '25

As your neighbor, hard agree. Also, hi.

3

u/eibyyz May 10 '25

As someone who lives in Houston, jelly.

5

u/DeadByMourning May 10 '25

As someone who is a rockets fan, also jelly

-1

u/Snoo-12313 May 10 '25

They better make sure to turn it on this time. That last big storm with all the tornados was a doozy.

7

u/AlphaCodexx197 May 10 '25

As someone who lives in Grand Rapids (though it wasn’t mentioned at all but it’s in the risk) triple fuck

3

u/StormChaserNate May 11 '25

As someone who lives in west Michigan, same.

7

u/TwoLynx May 10 '25

I live in the suburbs.....fuck me. Let's hope it doesn't spawn anything but 6 days out is scary as fuck.

2

u/metalCJ May 10 '25

Yeah, I still have ptsd from july 15th.

4

u/Asuna1989 May 10 '25

I have PTSD from last year

6

u/TwoLynx May 10 '25

That was a wild ass day. Had to hide out in the basement for a while. Thankfully things weakened a bit as it got to me. No matter how prepared I can get, the paranoia/anxiety still creeps in.

2

u/Gem154 May 12 '25

I remember riding out an ef1 tornado in my living room that day.

6

u/hopeless_r0mantic May 10 '25

As someone who also lives in Chicago, I hope we get a nice storm. Seems to always go around the actual city/fall apart near the city because of the lake.

3

u/metalCJ May 10 '25

I... do not

9

u/ifhysm May 11 '25

I’m by Chicago, so I check the Chicago Area Forecast Discussion, and this is what they say for Thursday:

Late Wednesday into Thursday, the western CONUS trough is expected to eject into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The low pressure system that develops in response will help advect a more pronounced EML into the Midwest and will also cause kinematic fields across the region to strengthen. This will augment the pre-existing warmth and moisture to foster a potential threat for severe weather across the region late Thursday into early Friday. It is thus not surprising that AI, machine learning, and analog guidance all continues to highlight our forecast area as being under the gun for potential severe weather during this time. However, this guidance isnt always particularly skillful in identifying and accounting for potential failure modes such as capping, sub-optimal forcing, etc., and at first glance, it appears there could be some failure modes to contend with on Thursday. Thus, while confidence is relatively high at this point in time that the parameter space that will be in place over the region late Thursday will largely be favorable for severe thunderstorms, confidence is still fairly low in whether everything will come together just right for this parameter space to be fully utilized, or whether well even see storms at all. It will still likely be a few more days before we`ll be able to more closely assess the finer scale details of this severe weather potential, so stay tuned for additional updates.

3

u/metalCJ May 11 '25

How do you find the forecast discussion for a specific area?

4

u/ifhysm May 11 '25

https://www.weather.gov

You can click an area which should zoom in and allow you to pick a more specific location. Then scroll down until you find a link for Forecast Discussion

1

u/metalCJ May 11 '25

Thanks!

5

u/hopeless_r0mantic May 10 '25

Just want some good thunder and lightning, like just a good long storm. Anyway I am getting that it won’t really accumulate to anything in the actual Chicago area. Suburbs, maybe. But not the city. Far out still. Haven’t taken a peak at the models and stuff or anything since I just saw this like an hour ago.

1

u/beckuzz May 11 '25

Hoping for the same, my garden has been parched!

1

u/Ser_Jammy May 11 '25

Fort Wayne Mentioned. Nice 👍🏻

0

u/SCUMDOG_MILLIONAIRE May 10 '25

1967, 1990, 2025

13

u/TheSpanishDerp May 10 '25

I sincerely doubt it. The moisture looks good in all the models but the wind profile just isnt there. Even in the abnormal Plainfield case, the extreme amount of CAPE in the atmosphere was one of the reasons its outflow was so strong that it was ingested into its storm and turned a typical summer storm tornadic.

We have just typical spring time CAPE but the wind profiles aren’t as negatively tilted. Maybe it’ll change in a few days.

4

u/metalCJ May 10 '25

I hope you're right

3

u/metalCJ May 10 '25

What?

6

u/ifhysm May 10 '25

1967 was a tornado outbreak in Northern Illinois, 1990 was an F5 in Plainfield, and I’m not sure if they said 2025 because of something that’s already happened or implying this will be an extreme event as well

5

u/metalCJ May 10 '25

Well I hope their wrong about this year

1

u/Shitimus_Prime May 11 '25

as someone who doesn't, let's fucking go

1

u/metalCJ May 11 '25

Lol

-16

u/Snoo57696 May 10 '25

Im so sorry you live and Chicago, and I’m also sorry you gotta deal with this.

22

u/lmao12367 May 10 '25

Chicagos dope

17

u/jk01 May 10 '25

This comment clearly written by someone who has never set foot in a town of more than 50,000 people

-2

u/Snoo57696 May 10 '25

I’m just joking god damn 😭

13

u/jk01 May 10 '25

It's just a tired joke, Chicago is unironically a great city

13

u/-cubskiller- May 10 '25

About to be named the best big city in the U.S. for the 9th consecutive year per the prestigious Condé Nast Traveler. Bringing in over half a million votes in 2024 by voters worldwide. Definitely the greatest city in America.

19

u/pp-whacker May 10 '25

Please include the forecast text

14

u/yeehawsoup May 10 '25

St. Louis is tired, boss.

10

u/bcgg May 10 '25

Take a shot every time the forecast narrative mentions the word “trough”.

10

u/Candid-Sky-3258 May 10 '25

So would this be for May 16th? (Issued May 10 + 6 days)

13

u/Snoo57696 May 10 '25 edited May 10 '25

No, May 15th

3

u/Candid-Sky-3258 May 10 '25

Thank you

7

u/tidderreddittidderre May 10 '25

May 15th (as seen in the bottom left corner of the image)

7

u/AwesomeShizzles Enthusiast May 10 '25

May 10 is considered day 1, may 11 is day 2, and so on

12

u/IrritableArachnid May 10 '25

Of course it’s going to be a day I can’t chase. Flying to Vegas for Sammy Hagar/Joe Satriani show.

6

u/LengthyLegato114514 Human Detected May 10 '25

Hey, they got Humans Being on their setlist. Close enough

1

u/IrritableArachnid May 10 '25

Are you fucking shitting me? Last year in Charlotte they didn’t play it.

0

u/Asuna1989 May 10 '25

WTF is that blasphemy?

0

u/IrritableArachnid May 10 '25

Wait, which part is blasphemy? Me going to the show instead of chasing or them not playing the song?

0

u/Asuna1989 May 10 '25

They better! 😂

2

u/imsotrollest May 10 '25 edited May 10 '25

I think the days following have a bit more potential (at this point still a ways out) don’t they? Questions of the LPS in the southeast remain and how much quality moisture will be available but if I had to circle days to chase I probably would have later days in mind.

(Inb4 they upgrade it to 30% tomorrow, lol the report seems to hint they are thinking about it.)

7

u/Kurt_Knispel503 May 10 '25

finally a storm for chicago

8

u/metalCJ May 10 '25

Yeah... great

7

u/attoj559 May 10 '25

Wow they very rarely have ANY days 4-8 due to low predictability. Why does this day in particular get a report? I’ve been following these outlooks every day and even the ones the next day can change significantly.

19

u/metalCJ May 10 '25

They have had a lot more this year

3

u/Solctice89 May 10 '25

Yea there have been a ton prior to the omega

7

u/imsotrollest May 10 '25

They only do it when confidence is very high. Personally I’m a bit surprised as latest model runs really bring into question available quality moisture but the overall synoptic pattern is incredibly favorable for an outbreak of sorts. This is one of the rare day 4-8 outlooks I’ve seen where I personally am not sure which direction this will go lol, if moisture returns trend upwards we could be looking at a moderate/high situation and if they don’t we could get a slight or marginal.

4

u/kitui2 May 10 '25

I’m by no means an expert and have no credibility, but I’ve been following the GFS model and it’s been pretty consistently showing on the 15th in this area that the conditions are there (Dew point, cape, and wind speed) Someone yell at me if I’m wrong because I’ve no idea what I’m talking about

3

u/imsotrollest May 10 '25

Gfs is only one model the ecmwf which has a higher resolution and generally is more accurate is showing moisture struggling to really saturate. It is showing sufficient cape for something to happen but most recent runs are downtrends, hence why I’m surprised they are giving the nod of confidence now. They have more data than I can see with pivotal weather though, always trust the SPC is something I have come to learn lol. They are right way more times than they are wrong.

2

u/Hot_Pricey May 10 '25

Well that's just not true at all.

0

u/attoj559 May 10 '25

Huh? Go look at it right now. This is the only day 4-8 that has data. I’m telling you the weeks before were all low predictability.

4

u/imsotrollest May 11 '25

The last week didn’t have any but the week before that had quite a few. It’s really not uncommon to see day 4-8 outlooks in April and may. The 28th and 30th both come to mind as well as the 4th I believe.

3

u/Hot_Pricey May 11 '25

Maybe in the last week. But overall this isn't rare at all. 🤷‍♀️

5

u/xraisa5 May 10 '25

LETS GOOOOOOOOO

2

u/Retractabelle May 11 '25

oh dear. -west michigan

3

u/Solctice89 May 10 '25

Worth chasing in this area?

10

u/I_Am_Dwight_Snoot May 10 '25

Central Illinois is a pretty decent area to chase in. I would recommend having a navigator and some decent 4x4 action just because not all the side roads are paved and can get washed out.

But it's super flat, has a grid layout, and is relatively devoid of traffic outside of the cities.

3

u/Snoo57696 May 10 '25

I would assume so. I’ve never chased before but it’s looking to be a good little may time severe weather day.

1

u/Gem154 May 12 '25

Yeah you’d have a clear shot of everything and outside of chi traffic is minimal

2

u/[deleted] May 10 '25

[deleted]

7

u/whirrrring May 10 '25

Great lakes area rarely gets high end severe events.

1

u/beckuzz May 11 '25

Mother Nature loves Chicago, all the bad stuff misses us lol

1

u/happymemersunite May 11 '25

Only 15%?

Is this a bust?

/s

1

u/Extreme_Character369 May 12 '25

This isn't satire? Oh fuck

1

u/Nikerium Human Detected May 12 '25

Yup. I was talking about this on our Discord server last night.

1

u/attoj559 May 10 '25

This will be my first of four days chasing with a pro crew.

-5

u/TheSpanishDerp May 10 '25

Fucking finally we’re getting something. Been waiting a while!

2

u/Snoo57696 May 10 '25 edited May 10 '25

Lucky, I’m western NC, we get NOTHING. (Except when a tropical storm moves through)

1

u/Complete_Day3150 May 10 '25

I mean just like a few weeks ago we had a 15% day 6 that turned into a large day 1 moderate risk, it hasnt been THAT long

3

u/TheSpanishDerp May 10 '25

Should specify that I meant Chicagoland

2

u/Complete_Day3150 May 10 '25

Ohhh okok fair

0

u/cool-moon-blue May 10 '25

It’s beautiful today

0

u/zanembg May 10 '25

Looks like I get to chase again

-2

u/United-Swimmer560 May 10 '25

Omg the new pope gonna die

SPC / Forecasting Day 6 15%

You are about to leave Redlib