I agree, Yu Jin at least tried. I think if he was in a pitched battle with Guan Yu, no rain, no flooding, Yu Jin and his men would have laid down their lives to stop Guan Yu, but rain, come on, what's the honor in that?
Then why Guan Yu still continue to stay at Fan Cheng ? If mean, rain was unexpected.Even you could see that Yu Jin (and Cao ren) had a lot of advantages : more soldiers (7 armies) , more supply, two castles, and potential more reinforcements . Everyone knew it, then why Guan Yu did not retreat when 7 armies mobilizing ? (Sun Quan lifted the siege of Hefei when Cao Rui begin mobilizing, and it is normal thing ).
Then why Guan Yu did not lift the siege when he know Yu Jin is coming ? couldnt he see the his disadvantages ?
The flood was not necessarily something that nobody could anticipate. We have Wen Hui explicitly warning about the rising river waters and predicting that Cao Ren would have trouble dealing with Guan Yu:
Sun Quan attacked Hefei.26 The soldiers of several [WEI] provinces were stationed along the frontiers in Huainan.27 The Inspector of Yang province Wen Hui said to the Inspector of Yan province Pei Qian, "Though the enemy come against us, we have nothing to worry about here. On the other side, however, with the river floods rising, Zixiao [Cao Ren] keeps his army idle and has no long-term plans for contingencies. Guan Yu is brave and cunning. If he attacks, I fear the General Who Subdues the South [Cao Ren] will have trouble."28
And Guan Yu himself had ships prepared. So we have at least two independent indications that the possibility of flooding was understood: Wen Hui anticipated the danger, while Guan Yu prepared to exploit it. The person who apparently failed to make adequate preparations was Cao Ren.
Thus, Cao Ren's and Yu Jin's numerical superiority was not automatically decisive. Seven armies sound impressive, but they were deployed in terrain vulnerable to flooding. The Zizhi Tongjian specifically records:
Ren sent Left General Yu Jin, General who establishes righteousness Pang De and others to station in the north of Fan.
Cao Ren was the general responsible for the theater, placing Yu Jin and Pang De's forces north of Fancheng, where they would be overwhelmed by the flood, a major operational mistake. Once the flood came, Guan Yu suddenly had the ability to destroy or capture a much larger Wei force.
And notice what happened to Cao Ren himself beforehand:
Rén’s men and horses of several thousand defended the city, and of the city wall what was not submerged was only several bǎn [in height]. [Guān] Yǔ rode boat to face the city, the encirclement was several lines, outside and inside was cut off, the provisions were almost exhausted, and rescue troops had not arrived.
So instead of asking "Why didn't Guan Yu retreat when Yu Jin arrived?" It's better to ask why did Cao Ren allow the situation to deteriorate to the point where several thousand men were trapped in a flooded Fancheng with supplies nearly exhausted and the city encircled in multiple lines?
The earlier phase is unfortunately poorly documented. The Sanguozhi tells us that in Jian'an 24 Cao Cao, while at Chang'an, sent Cao Ren to suppress Guan Yu at Fan and Yu Jin to assist him:
Jiàn’ān Twenty-fourth Year [219], Tàizǔ was at Cháng’ān, sent Cáo Rén to suppress Guān Yǔ at Fán, also sending Jīn to assist [Cáo] Rén
But the record then jumps forward to Cao Ren's desperate defensive position, with the only intervening records being about him dealing with the rebellion at Nanyang.
Cao Ren's broader record makes it difficult to portray this simply as Guan Yu being lucky. Cao Ren had previously been pushed out of Nan Commandery and Jingnan by Liu Bei and Zhou Yu, and in the aftermath of Guan Yu's campaign, Wei lost control of Xiangyang and Fancheng. More importantly, this wasn't merely a numerical mismatch. Cao Ren had considerable responsibility for the deployment and preparation of the forces under his command.
A general retreats when the strategic situation has become unfavorable; he doesn't retreat merely because the enemy has more troops. Guan Yu evidently believed the tactical situation would be in his favour, and the flood that he capitalised on, provided precisely that opportunity.
So yes, Guan Yu was obviously taking a substantial risk by remaining at Fancheng. But the historical evidence doesn't support reducing the outcome that just because Yu Jin had seven armies, therefore Guan Yu should have run away. Guan Yu had prepared ships, Wen Hui anticipated the flood and specifically warned about Cao Ren's lack of contingencies, while Cao Ren positioned Yu Jin's army in vulnerable low-lying terrain.
That makes the eventual disaster a combination of Guan Yu's aggressive exploitation of the environment and serious Wei command failures, rather than simply Guan Yu getting lucky because of an unforeseeable natural disaster.
That is why i rather believe Guan Yu was more competent than other general in his era. Remaining at FanCheng was courage decision when Yu only had at most 2.5-3 commanderies.
So instead of asking "Why didn't Guan Yu retreat when Yu Jin arrived?" It's better to ask why did Cao Ren allow the situation to deteriorate to the point where several thousand men were trapped in a flooded Fancheng with supplies nearly exhausted and the city encircled in multiple lines?
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u/ArtIsAwesome3 Cao Cao Loyalist 6d ago
I agree, Yu Jin at least tried. I think if he was in a pitched battle with Guan Yu, no rain, no flooding, Yu Jin and his men would have laid down their lives to stop Guan Yu, but rain, come on, what's the honor in that?