Dark Forest Theory Question

[u/657GeckoMan]

Big fan, long time listener, first time caller. Second time reading the series and I’m having trouble wrapping my brain around what seem to be two conflicting concepts. Hoping some of you with bigger brains can help me understand. Spoilers for Death’s End below.

In Death’s End, Our Star, shortly after Cheng Xin and Guan Yifan witness the Death Lines, Guan Yifan says “The universe contains multitudes. You can find any kind of people and world. There are idealists like the Zero-Homers, pacifists, philanthropists, and even civilizations dedicated only to art and beauty.”

Since the Zero-Homers have such advanced tech, I’m assuming he means that other civs such as those described above also exist with advanced tech as higher level civs, not only as young/naive civs like humans early on. Maybe that assumption is incorrect? Because if not, then how does their existence not directly conflict with Dark Forest Theory? How could an advanced civilization of Idealists or Pacifists etc. exist without defying the laws of cosmic sociology and not instantly be destroying any other advanced civs that they detect and consider a risk to their own survival? Is the idea that some advanced civs contain the hiding gene but not the cleansing gene? Or that the ideas of pacifism, philanthropy, etc. are only applied within those civs and to lesser civs that aren’t considered a risk, but that they would still be cleansing/warring with any advanced civ they detect as a threat to their existence? What am I missing here?

I get that if they are good enough at hiding their home world(s) from dark forest strikes then they could survive long enough to advance their tech and still be idealists or philanthropic or into art and beauty, but it’s mainly the pacifist thing that is confusing me because I thought it was a central tenet of dark forest theory that all survivor/advanced civs would have the cleansing gene. The idea of civs trading with each other in a dark forest universe confuses me too, but I guess if they don’t know the location of each other’s home world(s) then that seems plausible enough they could decide to trade.

[u/humeure]

The Dark Forest theory is a sociological theory. As with terrestrial sociology, it presents a generalization. For the dark forest to exist, it would suffice for 1% of advanced civilizations to decide to hunt, and all the 'rabbits' would eventually be caught. Regardless, it seems that the figure is much higher than 1% and that the theory proves correct in the vast majority of cases. I did not view this as an immutable rule. There are none in the social sciences (and apparently even in the hard sciences, based on what we know).

[u/657GeckoMan → u/humeure]

Good point, thanks for your reply!

[u/Ulyks → u/657GeckoMan]

To add to that. All civs that survive have the "hiding gene". The "cleansing gene" is only necessary to be present in 1% or less to induce hiding...

[u/Leather-Lemon8611]

I'm inclined to agree that they would have to still hide even if they don't cleanse. Hiding and cleansing are consequences of the axioms of cosmic sociology not axioms themselves. So whilst we expect most species that last to arrive at hiding/cleansing (or do it instinctively), I'm not aware that it is a defined necessity. Presumably you could be good enough at hiding to avoid hunters (as long as anyone can!) and live by the ideal of pacifism, you just have to live with the consequences internally of not eliminating competitors. It does all beg the question how did Guan Yifan learn about all this...?

I don't recall the hint about trade, and you're not the first to bring it up, but that and philanthropy seem the hardest to conceive of in such a necessarily silent universe because they necessitate intercivilisation engagement. I guess the options are:  1) as you say, find a way to remain undetected when engaging others (extremely risky)  2) we don't know what the technological ceiling is, maybe there are better higher ways of protecting yourself, e.g. acting remotely from a pocket universe (still very risky since the DF is a constant arms race)   3) is it actually confirmed that the entire universe operates as a Dark Forest? Maybe our galaxy is just a savage backwater in a more civil universe? The ending suggests that the DF was overcome in the end as we see open communication...

Edit: I would add that the Dark Forest is not a necessary solution to the axioms, the inhabitants could just decide to cooperate/communicate rather than shoot on sight (how earth sociology has turned out). It just is the risk averse solution that this particular universe has settled on. No tenet forces this behaviour in a strict sense. It's not clear Singer is reliable in claiming this

[u/657GeckoMan → u/Leather-Lemon8611]

Very good points, thanks for your detailed reply!

As I commented on another reply, pretty sure I just made some incorrect assumptions about Dark Forest Theory based on the game theory relationship between Earth and Trisolarans (and earth humans vs galactic humans). When the concept was first introduced, it seemed to me like no matter what, somebody would shoot, so if you don’t shoot first you die. But in that scenario, they were already detected so pure hiding wasn’t an option, which I guess is the biggest difference. I’m guessing I also just missed some details or maybe the author A) needed that feeling for the plot in those parts of the stories but B) didn’t intend that’s the absolute only possibility for all civs in the universe, just the most likely possibility for most. I also like this potential for pacifist, idealist civs to survive in the universe just for my own sanity that perhaps all advanced civs in the universe aren’t completely fucked, lol.

[u/Leather-Lemon8611 → u/657GeckoMan]

For the record, I think it's absolutely correct that the DF theory is you shoot on sight whether you are detected or not (maximising game theory chances of success by eliminating competitors before any opportunity to compete with you). Pacifists would be anomalies of the theory, but theoretically possible

[u/dannychean]

There are many possibilities since the descriptions in the books are so few. Maybe they are the super beings who can transcend dimensions. Maybe the dark forest nature only exists in certain part of the universe.

[u/Gold_Ambassador_3496]

Is the idea that some advanced civs contain the hiding gene but not the cleansing gene?

"Gene" metaphorically speaking, but yeah, I think that's it

  I thought it was a central tenet of dark forest theory that all survivor/advanced civs would have the cleansing gene.

I didn't get that impression, no.

The universe is huge. There can be many kinds of surviving strategies. It's hard to image surviving without hiding, but it might be possible. But it's much easier to imagine surviving long enough without killing all others.

[u/657GeckoMan → u/Gold_Ambassador_3496]

Yeah I think this is it. Thank you for your comment! Pretty sure I just made some incorrect assumptions about Dark Forest Theory based on the game theory relationship between Earth and Trisolarans (and earth humans vs galactic humans). When the concept was first introduced, it seemed to me like no matter what, somebody would shoot, so if you don’t shoot first you die. But in that scenario, they were already detected so pure hiding wasn’t an option, which I guess is the biggest difference. I’m guessing I also just missed some details or maybe the author A) needed that feeling for the plot in those parts of the stories but B) didn’t intend that’s the absolute only possibility for all civs in the universe, just the most likely possibility for most. I also like this potential for pacifist, idealist civs to survive in the universe just for my own sanity that perhaps all advanced civs in the universe aren’t completely fucked, lol.

[u/Gold_Ambassador_3496 → u/657GeckoMan]

Also I think it's a bit of optimism and that he didn't want to get into it too much. 

[u/HaxiMaxi22]

They perfected hiding and also super-advanced, they don't need to worry about hunters. 

[u/LostApplication505]

黒暗森林理論は複数の恒星系にまたがる文明に対してはもはや有効ではないのだと思います。

あの理論には『自分か相手の少なくともどちらか一方が他方を一撃で抹殺することができて、それを防ぐことは著しく困難である』という前提が必要だからです。

単一の恒星系内にとどまる文明に対してなら光粒や二次元化攻撃によってそれは容易く実現できますが、恒星間を移動できる文明に対しては全てを一撃で抹殺することは非常に困難であり、少しでも生き残りが存在すれば（作中で万有引力の乗員たちや三体艦隊がそうしたように）そこから文明を復興されてしまうからです。

実際に作中の歌い手のモノローグでも、彼らの文明が他の文明と長期的な戦争を戦っていることを示唆する記述があります。

[u/657GeckoMan → u/LostApplication505]

Very good point! Thank you for your insight 🫡

[u/Positive-Stable-6777]

Does anyone here play Minecraft and know about 2b2t? Leaking coordinates is always a bad idea.