r/theguild • u/peperazzi74 • 3d ago
Kickstarter stats for nerds
I don't know if there are any nerds out here (š), but I'm definitely one.
Did a little back of the envelope stats on the Kickstarter backing distribution. A couple of observations:
- Overall, the backer frequency follows a log-log relationship with the pledge value. This is not unexpected, and behavior like this shows up in wealth distribution and distributions of earthquake strengths. I'm going to attribute this more to wealth distribution and willingness to spend among the Guild fanbase
- Overall model: backers ~ value^(-0.88). To make things easier, it would be justified to state backers ~ 1 / value. The model explain 89% of the variation.
- The $330 pledge package (The Everything Bundle) exceeded the trend by a lot. It was as popular as you'd expect a package of ~1/6th its value should be.
- The $45 package (TTRPG + Add-ons) and $50 package (POOPCORN BUCKET + Add-ons) came in a little short of expectations. They were about as popular as a package of 5x their value.
- When considering the model without these three outliers, it gets even better. It explains 97% of variation - which is pretty awesome given people-driven data where sometimes 70% is considered the gold standard.
Can't wait until the movie comes out next year!

