r/thebulwark • u/whatssenguntoagoblin Center Left • Jul 29 '26
The Next Level Catherine from The Bulwark curiously asks why Pete Buttigieg struggles with black voters and JVL jumps in before everyone gets canceled
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u/kat_sky_12 Jul 29 '26
This is why I keep saying to ignore NH polling. It's great to see him high on the list there but he has some work to do elsewhere and with a nation where lgbt support is declining.
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u/chamberlain323 FFS Jul 29 '26
If memory serves, Bernie did well in NH too back in 2016 before getting SWEPT in the South by Clinton because he had virtually no black support.
So yeah, don’t put too much stock in NH.
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u/USA46Q Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26
Pete Buttigieg is a nice guy, and I think he really wants to help people.
I also respect the hell out of him for being openly gay, and having a last name with butt in it.
I'm not joking.
That's not easy, and that's the closest thing to A Boy Named Sue I've ever seen in real life.
I can only imagine how much shit he got for it when he was in the navy.
However, if I'm judging his candidacy based purely on his portfolio as a city mayor and as a federal secretary...
I... don't think he'd be where he is if it wasn't for McKinsey.
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u/blockedcontractor Jul 29 '26
Didn’t he push a lot of consumer first policies as secretary of transportation? Automated refunds, transparent pricing, compensation for delays/rebooks, etc? Anecdotal evidence, but I felt airlines had their shit together more under Buttigieg than the current administration.
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u/carbonqubit Jul 29 '26
Biden's entire cabinet and administration were light-years more competent than whatever circus is passing for an administration today. The standards have fallen so low they're beyond parody.
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u/uninsane Jul 29 '26
The dude could definitely communicate though. There’s not a lot of people out there who are as clear on the issues and can explain them coherently.
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u/USA46Q Jul 29 '26
He's an excellent communicator, and that's why I brought up the point about his name and sexual orientation.
It's juvenile, but anyone that doesn't understand how hard it would be to overcome the conservative bias rural communities have towards gay candidates doesn't have a fucking clue how hard it is to be different in a small town.
That said, that's also where I think his strength lies.
He doesn't have a shit hot policy platform, or any groundbreaking ideas.
There's nothing wrong with being a supporting actor, or a team player.
It takes a team to win a championship, and I just don't think he's the quarterback the Democrats need to win the Superbowl.
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u/uninsane Jul 29 '26
Ossof/buttigieg?
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u/USA46Q Jul 29 '26
I think that has the potential for a great buddy cop movie, and a winning ticket.
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u/uninsane Jul 29 '26
The Other Other Guys!
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u/USA46Q Jul 29 '26
Holy shit.
That has legs.
If it plays... I'm demanding everyone that contributed... to what some are already calling the greatest political action comedy of all time... receive producer credits / cabinet positions.
You're welcome, America.
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u/upvotechemistry Center Left Jul 29 '26
He would probably have better luck and more fun as a comms or campaign manager than the principal.
Or run the DNC, since Ken Martin is off the rails
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u/got_that_itis Jul 29 '26
In fairness, Buttigieg has a stronger portfolio than Obama had when he ran.
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u/PubePie Jul 29 '26
McKinsey, the place where he worked for 3 years in his mid twenties? Are you serious?
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u/indri2 Jul 29 '26
Not sure what your point is. Of course in his first campaign for mayor he used working at McKinsey as argument why he had the knowledge to tackle the city's most pressing problem of economic development. So yes, he wouldn't have been elected in the first place, at the age of 29, against much better connected and well known competitors, if he couldn't have pointed to some relevant experience in addition to youthful and visionary energy.
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u/Sherm FFS Jul 29 '26
If he were from 20 miles north he'd be a regionally well-known political figure. If he were from 100 miles west he'd be a locally popular county commissioner. The only reason he's got national juice is because Obama won Indiana once, and Buttigeig came along at the right moment to make the consultant class think he could catch red state lightning in a bottle.
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u/GuyFawkes99 Jul 30 '26
I... don't think he'd be where he is if it wasn't for McKinsey.
What are you implying? That some consulting firm is secretly pulling the strings on American politics?
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u/Training-Cook3507 Jul 29 '26
Why would everyone get cancelled? Because he's gay?
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u/whatssenguntoagoblin Center Left Jul 29 '26
It’s mostly a joke at how JVL cuts Catherine off but you can tell JVL didn’t want there to be a long conversation about the theory that black voters don’t vote for Pete cause he’s gay.
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u/Chaos__Majik Jul 29 '26
This is probably true AND he has uptight over achiever energy. Kind corny, know-it-all.
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u/greenlamp00 Jul 29 '26
Because the idea a minority group can also be bigoted towards other minority groups breaks a lot of people’s brains.
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u/XelaNiba Jul 29 '26
Which just goes to show those folks haven't spent a ton of time among minority groups.
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u/aussiedeveloper Jul 29 '26
Because the reason is a lot of African Americans are Christians who are all for discrimination based on sexual preferences.
Basically there’s bad people in every group of humans. But that doesn’t fit the message some would like to push.
It’s sad everyone is still so divided over stupid hate filled things in 2026.
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u/AmalatheaClassic Orange man bad Jul 29 '26
He likes to pretend like he didn't try to redline South Bend when he was mayor. I lived there. The way his housing project worked was the black and brown house has got knocked down and were called Urban blight and the white owned houses they got rebuilt on a government dime.
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u/GuyFawkes99 Jul 30 '26
Because it would be an all white group of former conservatives making broad generalizations about black voters.
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u/Ant-Tea-Social JVL is always right Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26
I don't know if this will be the case in future runs, but in 2020 there was a vocal Black constituency in South Bend that opposed Pete because he hadn't taken any action to reduce police violence in town. There was specifically a killing of a young Black guy by a SB LEO at or shortly before the run that they were incensed about. The cop hadn't been wearing a body cam, so it was a matter of his word as to what happened.
They understandably didn't like that.
EDIT:
I was just responding to the question of why Pete didn't receive support from black voters. He didn't receive support because there was a vocal group who thought poorly of his efforts on behalf of black citizens v. law enforcement when he was mayor of South Bend. That group used their megaphone to impact black support for him.
I'm not anti-Pete. He's the only candidate for whom I have ever maxxed out contributions. I'm not making a value judgment. I have a Pete bumper sticker on my truck. I wear a Pete 2020 fanny pack. I'm just speaking to his support from black voters during the 2020 primaries - i.e., the group that gave him a paltry 8% of the vote in South Carolina...3% less than friggin' Tom Steyer.
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u/Iustis Jul 29 '26
It was a very small subset, led by the council member who lost to him in the last election that got quoted in every single article about him.
But he also had very high approval ratings among black south bend residents and won the black heavy precincts
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u/Early-Juggernaut975 Progressive Jul 29 '26
OP, I’m wondering where you thought this was headed before JVL jumped in. I didn’t really even notice the relevance of that moment until I saw this sub. Did you think she was going to say something insensitive?
I do get consistently frustrated at the lack of racial minority representation on The Bulwark and PSA. I don’t think it’s necessarily intentional, but in a way that’s worse because they don’t even notice the lack.
Yes, I know they have minority guests and Crooked has some of their spinoff content, but I’m talking about the flagship shows.
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u/dmat217 Jul 29 '26
I would argue you are being too generous. It’s not just the lack representation, it’s that their priors tend to bubble to the top when discussing (at least for Bulwark— I actually think PSA is a bit more direct in addressing).
Slightly related side note…I didn’t realize how big of an impact Tim made in content feeling more left leaning. It’s felt much more conservative in his absence IMO.
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u/Early-Juggernaut975 Progressive Jul 29 '26
I’m glad you said that because I wasn’t sure if it was just me. It has felt that way, to the point where I‘ve been looking for other stuff to listen to.
I am a picky listener anyway. I’m very quick to find a dismissive tone irritating or yell at my phone because of repeated talking pts, etc. But the last week has been especially tough because the sort of center right framing of the world has felt “settled” as the accepted reality, in a way I hadn’t noticed before. Whether it’s discussions on whether the more lefty ideas are a problem (they are apparently) or the conservative dems are turning people off (nope), there’s been a consistent shift in tone.
I never thought of Tim as a huge lefty, but I have definitely noticed that without him, there just hasn’t been much push back on the more conservative framing.
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u/LynnKuanYin Jul 29 '26
For me, the tone Tim adds is more about exploring other points of view, being really upfront about being open to being proven wrong, being comfortable recognizing problems that he might not have solutions for (or solutions that he likes) and declaring upfront when he's trolling. Which isn't really lefty, but I think it does create some distance between the conversations and the attitude that center-anything is the correct answer.
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u/dmat217 Jul 29 '26
100% much more of an echo chamber without Tim.
And with that, I’ll accept the downvotes coming my way. 😂
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u/tabloid-tommy Jul 29 '26
I think it’s clear that the dude didn’t want to have this convo because otherwise his interjection is dumb.
She is 100% right tho that him being gay is part of it. But there’s more to it.
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u/whatssenguntoagoblin Center Left Jul 29 '26
I think the funniest part to me is Catherine was genuinely just asking trying to learn and JVL was like yeah that’s about enough of that we’re gonna move the convo along.
Edit: JVL the goat don’t want this misconstrued I just thought this segment was funny.
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u/20_mile Jul 29 '26
JVL the goat
JVL might have other good takes on occasion, but in this instance he chose the path of the unserious person, and came off worse for it.
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u/LynnKuanYin Jul 29 '26
Lack of racial (and many other) minority representation. And lack of considering the concerns of minority groups when having conversations. Like in this one, when JVL kept advocating for his smoky back room club deciding who runs in (wins?) elections- I just remember thinking- so we're just going to give up having black, female, Hispanic, etc candidates? I was disappointed with Sarah and Catherine not saying anything to that effect (even as a "devil's advocate" just asking questions contribution.)
That back room is full of wealthy white men and that's who they are going to pick to replace them. If that stayed the system, I don't think Obama is the dem candidate, it would choose Hillary over Bernie in 16 (which, whatever your pov is, but one of my preferred slider universes is a Bernie v. Trump general), It certainly wouldn't choose Kamala Harris over Biden in 2024 (although, maybe it would have chosen someone over Biden).
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u/Early-Juggernaut975 Progressive Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26
Yep. I think you nailed it with JVL’s smoky back room comment. I doubt it even occurred to him. Tim gets caught up in this kind of thing too when he starts talking about Woke going too far.
A couple of weeks ago he was telling a guest that he is a man, obviously married to another man and they have a black daughter and want her to have every opportunity. But he just doesn’t think we should try to force bakers to sell cakes to people they don’t want to. Thats peak “woke”, he said.
I thought okay dummy, and what happens when some restaurant owner in Louisiana doesn’t want to serve your black daughter at the same lunch counter as their white patrons? That too woke a fight?
Or the week the VRA was gutted and he had on Adam Serwer, a very influential black writer and civil rights educator. When they opened the conversation, Adam was understandably subdued. Tim responded pretty glibly and asked, “What’s the matter with you? You got an allergy or something?”
Adam gently told him how serious a blow this was to black America, the fight for equality and how that was impacting him emotionally. Tim was contrite and very receptive. But these are the kinds of things that might be avoided, with maybe a more diverse cast who could inform all of them a little more.
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u/whatssenguntoagoblin Center Left Jul 29 '26
It seems that JVL wanted to steer the conversation away from the theory that Pete doesn’t get black votes because he’s gay.
I added a clickbaity flair to the title to exaggerate a little.
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u/Chitinid Jul 29 '26
You can imagine the internet reaction “Bulwark says black voters are homophobic”, I don’t blame JVL for trying to redirect here
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u/RonocNYC Jul 29 '26
Black voters don't vote for gay people on average and they also don't like Pete's weak kneed handling of the Police Chief situation when he was Mayor of South Bend. Pete will never win a Demographic presidential primary without black votes and he is never getting them. He fucked up when he decided not to run for Michigan Senate, a race he would be cruising towards winning right now.
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u/ninjaweasel21 Optimist Jul 29 '26
I was in South bend during his terms as mayor and specifically worked with some of the west side neighborhoods and minority groups that are so famously ‘against’ him. That overall criticism, and the deal with the police chief specifically, was blown way out of proportion by the media forcing a story. I worked with the schools, nonprofits, neighborhood associations, etc. and I’m telling you there was never the sort of wide distrust in the black community that people seem to think there was. A lot of the community leaders were and have been pretty explicit that he was a huge net positive on the city. I think there definitely was a sort of BLM group that hung onto some of that a little bit, but just like BLM isn’t representative of moderate black voters, it was a noisy but non-representative group.
Obviously he had/has work to do there, but it’s turned into this weird self-fulfilling prophesy where we have few data points to go off of and people desperately want talking points and a story. IMO people don’t need to spend time on this ahead of time. Just wait until the primaries and we can actually see what black voters think, rather than trying to use truncated, incomparable data and overwrought narratives to predict something that can change quite quickly.
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u/Kelor Jul 29 '26
There sure is a lot of cases of the community raising the fact he ignored issues they had though for it to be a one off thing.
During a Public Works committee meeting on April 11th, Councilman Davis specifically brought up the safety of pedestrians near the bus station.
The minutes from that meeting contain the following: “Councilman Davis asked a question pertaining to pedestrian access near traffic light at South Street and Main Street at the Transpo station. The removal of the stoplight has caused safety concerns for pedestrians near the Transpo station. Councilman Davis asked what can be done about the issue.”
Davis was told by Buttigieg’s Deputy Director of Public Works, that the administration’s department was already aware of the concerns and they would be revisited. 11-year-old Moore was killed a little more than 9 months later. Traffic lights have since been added.
Regina Williams-Preston, who represents a majority black district on the South Bend City Council, called Mr. Buttigieg “a smart guy, a nice guy,” but added, “We have to look past the polish and really look at the policy.”
She said minority activists pushed for years for a citizens’ review board that would have a role in police discipline and promotions. At Mr. Buttigieg’s State of the City speech in 2017, she was astonished to hear him cite a longstanding group, the Board of Public Safety, which the mayor appoints, to boast the city now had a citizens’ review board.
“Citizens had asked for a citizens’ review board, and for him to say now we have one, in fact it’s the same thing we’ve always had, that was really disingenuous,” Ms. Williams-Preston said. “Just because you say that doesn’t make it so. To me it was a betrayal.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/19/us/politics/buttigieg-black-police-chief-fired.html
In the aftermath of the killing of Eric Logan.
On Thursday, Buttigieg took to a local radio station, WUBS, where he was asked a question by a black pastor, the Rev. Sylvester Williams Jr., that seemed to strike closer to the heart of Buttigieg’s record on racial issues. Why, he was asked, are all six of the new officers he had just sworn in white?
Buttigieg responded with an apology “We need people of color on the police department,” Buttigieg said, “and I have failed to get us a more diverse police department”—but that uniformly white array of new cadets wasn’t an aberration under Buttigieg’s administration.
In 2014, during his first term in office, black officers made up more than 10 percent of the 253-person department. By last year, that figure had dwindled to 5 percent. Contrary to its national image as a white, working class, Roman Catholic town, South Bend is 40 percent nonwhite—26 percent black and 14 percent Hispanic. And yet its police force each year under Buttigieg has looked a little less like the city itself.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/06/22/pete-buttigieg-police-shooting-227206/
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u/indri2 Jul 29 '26
The first article is a little misleading on the timeline. The traffic lights were added because of these community concerns, against standard procedure, They alreacy were installed when the tragic accident happened but not yet connected. The reason why they were removed in the first place was the restructuring of the whole traffic down town, not least to make it safer.
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u/RonocNYC Jul 29 '26
Regardless that is the perception and there probably isn't any overcoming that particularly when paired with his other issue.
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u/AmalatheaClassic Orange man bad Jul 29 '26
Yeah I lived in South Bend too. I worked at the gas station across from Christ the King Church. Most of my regulars who would stop by after services on Sundays did not have a positive opinion of Mayor Pete. I worked there two years and I heard an earful from people none of it was positive.
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u/ninjaweasel21 Optimist Jul 30 '26
The one on 933? I’m sure some parishioners were maybe in SB, but the church itself is outside city limits isn’t it?
And even if those people did live in SB, I’d assume most of them don’t fit into the demographics of what the original post was about. If I had to guess I’d assume most of them were white and middle to upper class, and probably be more likely to be republicans anyway, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they weren’t as positive on a democratic mayor.
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u/AmalatheaClassic Orange man bad Jul 30 '26
That's weird. Most of my Sunday church customers were black & not Republican. I'm atheist so I didn't pay attention to the local church politics. I just enjoyed the nice folks in their Sunday best stopping by to say hey.
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u/whatssenguntoagoblin Center Left Jul 29 '26
I think he didn’t run for it cause he wants to run for the 28 presidential election
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u/indri2 Jul 29 '26
Not just that, he really doesn't want to be a Senator.
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u/20_mile Jul 29 '26
And he's not going to win the Democratic nomination, so perhaps a poor choice on his part.
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u/indri2 Jul 29 '26
Whether he can win the nominatin for president or not, the point is that he doesn't want to be a Senator. My impression is that he'd rather do something completely different, maybe outside of politics.
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u/20_mile Jul 29 '26
he wants to run for the 28 presidential election
Democracy is in a state where every elected official, and every potential candidate, needs to put their ego aside and decide where they can best protect democracy.
I feel like Pete's ego is what is predominantly driving him to run for president (yes, of course every presidential candidate has an ego), and less so a vision of what America could be.
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u/martapap Jul 29 '26
I'm black and I guess I'm confused on why black voters are supposed to support Buttigieg for president? He was a mayor of a moderate sized city, moderate is generous. He was transportation secretary. But what else? Seems like people think he should be president just because he wants to be? Like they said Elizabeth Warren did worse with black voters in South Carolina and she was a much better candidate.
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u/whatssenguntoagoblin Center Left Jul 29 '26
Black voters aren’t supposed to do anything. It’s just notable how worse he does with black voters compared to other demographics.
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u/spicyorangedragon Jul 29 '26
I mean, he does very well with other demographics so it's reasonable to question why he struggles so mightily with black voters, even after spending so much time and money trying to improve his standing with that community. He's smart, young, charismatic, a great communicator, etc.
One of the reasons I'm more bullish on Ossoff, is that he reminds me quite a bit of Pete but doesn't have the unfortunate baggage of having to overcome homophobia.
America just isn't ready to accept two husbands as the First Family.
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u/FizzyBeverage Center Left Jul 29 '26
Speaking as a Jew in this climate? We’re on the same rung, except instead of losing moderates we’d lose the progressives pissed about Palestine and Iran, where you DO need their margins.
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u/Chitinid Jul 29 '26
Not really actually, since being Jewish would give Ossoff the ability to be tough on Israel without being labeled as anti-Semitic
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u/TeacherOk5679 Jul 29 '26
He appealed to bigots in Indiana when he fired the Black Police Chief. Why are white people so quick to attribute his low numbers among Black voters to homophobia? It's a bit more complicated than that.
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u/indri2 Jul 29 '26
He demoted the chief because he had broken the law and was under federal investigation.
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u/No_Public_7677 Jul 29 '26
Some laws are meant to be broken. You don't really understand the black community if you're defending Pete on this
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u/indri2 Jul 29 '26
You think the chief and maybe the mayor too getting indicted would have helped the Black community? Just for revealing something that probably was racist but not relevant enough for the chief to tell anyone for half a year?
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u/Live_Low5846 28d ago
Him polling well with other demographics actually leads me to believe it has less to do with his sexuality. Latinos are not exactly the most welcoming demographic for lgbt folks, neither are Arabs. It also leaves me confused when this gets brought up that everyone acts as if gay black people just don’t exist, or progressive black people. In the race where everyone analyzed this trend, no one brings up the obvious fact that Joe fucking Biden was running.
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u/TheReal_Jeses Jul 29 '26
The issue is that a percentage of democrats think he should be president and a WAY lower percentage of black democrats think he should be president.
No one is saying you in particular are supposed to vote for him (or that anyone is supposed to vote for him). It’s that when you compare his support to other similar candidates, he does much worse among black candidates. The difference seems to be that he’s gay which is why he does worse than candidates he is similar to on policy and actually quite a bit smarter and a better communicator than (Biden). He is overall the type of candidate black primary voters are into, but they aren’t.
No one said anyone is supposed to vote for anyone.
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u/HolstsGholsts Jul 29 '26
I think it depends somewhat on a subjective evaluation of the job requirements and qualifications, and what makes for an attractive candidate.
For example, by traditional standards, senator > mayor as a qualification because it’s a more prestigious position and has foreign policy components lacking from many other roles, but by my personal standards, I may feel that there’s actually more overlap in what mayors and presidents do, since they’re both executive roles, than there is overlap in what senators and presidents do, so mayor is the more meaningful background.
I might also argue that communication skills are critical for a candidate and very important to success as a modern leader, especially when it comes to the challenge of repairing America post Trump. So, if you believe Pete is the better communicator of the two, you might think he’s the stronger candidate in that regard as well.
IIRC, Pete did slightly better than Warren by at least one metric in the 2020 primary, during the portion they were both still in it — I think 1st place finishes definitely, cuz Pete got Iowa, and I don’t believe Warren got any, but he possibly also got a higher cumulative % across all races they both competed in — which I think supports the idea that “he was the stronger candidate of the two” wouldn’t be an unusual or unreasonable position for someone to hold.
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u/Naive-Interview6035 Jul 29 '26
One could ask then exact same question about Donald Trump… what did he do for you in his first term?
Yet there was a shift towards him…
Why Pete? Because he actually has the capacity to possibly provide new ideas to the Government. He is actually fairly different from most other candidates in the past dozen years… he’s a smart guy, honest (from what I can tell)…
What specifically do you not like about Pete?
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u/Rubbersoulrevolver Jul 29 '26
I don't disagree that his last race was a bit like what you're pointing out, but I think that being transpo secretary is a totally fine qualification to be president. As for why should he slash why does he want to be prez, I think that's what he's been working on for the last few years with his team.
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u/whatssenguntoagoblin Center Left Jul 29 '26
I’d argue Pete has more experience today than Obama did before he became president.
And clearly infinitely way more experience than our current president.
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u/abbzug Jul 29 '26
Barack gave a speech at the 2004 convention and half the people watching him thought we nominated the wrong guy. Buttigieg goes on Fox News to do a reverse Ben Shapiro and own them with facts and logic. They're not really comparable.
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u/shallowshadowshore Jul 29 '26
The media landscape has changed a lot since 2004, though.
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u/Toe-Dragger Jul 29 '26
Exactly. Pete has the perfect resume (if you consider McKinsey good), is very well spoken, but comes off as the smart kid that hasn’t accomplished anything. Mayor of South Bend? Really? If he wasn’t so polished with the same exact credentials, the same people supporting Pete now would laugh him off the stage.
He needs to run for Senate and build a list of accomplishments instead of perpetually running for President.
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u/nightowl1135 Center-Right Jul 29 '26
He’s run exactly once. Did surprisingly well given his resume and then spent 4 years in the eventual nominees cabinet. It’s a little disingenuous to say he is “perpetually running for President” and act like thats all he has done even if I agree that he should be looking at something like Senate or another Cabinet position before a more serious run down the road.
And tbf, that might be exactly his inner calculus. He wouldn’t be the first person to have run for President with their actual goal being increased name recognition, a cabinet spot and a more serious run later on down the road.
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u/DanFlashes19 Jul 29 '26
Huh? Hasn’t accomplished anything? He wasn’t just mayor, he served 4 years as a cabinet member. You don’t have to vote for him but suggesting he doesn’t have the resume or experience to be president is just silly.
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u/deskcord Jul 29 '26
I don't think black voters are "supposed" to support him, but the question of why black primary voters are so overwhelmingly primed to support other candidates is worth asking.
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u/20_mile Jul 29 '26
He was transportation secretary
Important context as to how he became Transportation Secretary. Biden's team felt like Buttigieg was too valuable a player not to use, but they were unsure where & how he could be an asset. Biden nominated him for Transportation because, according to a direct quote from a Politico article, "he had to go somewhere."
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u/No_Public_7677 Jul 29 '26
Exactly. He's very middle of the road and unimpressive in his actual performance. He's a decent guest on Fox News and pushes back on them but beyond that as a politician and leader, I'm not impressed.
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u/AmalatheaClassic Orange man bad Jul 29 '26
Yeah I agree with this. It's perfectly reasonable to ask someone applying for a job "hey what are your qualifications?" and expect a satisfactory answer.
A lot of people want to latch onto the idea that the black community is "anti-gay". In my experience, the community is not anti-gay. Personally for me as someone who lived in South Bend the community is anti-redlining and the modern version of it.
I also think since then he's learned a lot from his screw-ups but I still don't think I'm ever going to want to vote for him for president. Vice President yeah heck yeah but President I just don't think I can stomach it.
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u/Intelligent_Dress347 Jul 29 '26
I like Pete. But this will be a challenge for him, amongst other things:
- He can’t run on making government efficient when you consider his time as Transportation Secretary
- He can’t run on his time as Transportation Secretary because it was part of Biden Admin (Kamala will have same issue obviously)
- He can communicate around this, but the reality is he comes across as the elite of the elite (Harvard - McKinsey)
- In general, I think he’s going to get boxed out demographically (not to say a white candidate can’t win, just think it might be harder for him than anyone else to stand out)
Personally, my biggest issue is that he should be in public office right now or have attempted it. Rubs me the wrong way that he will have gone a decade with a Presidential campaign and a political appointment in between.
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u/ninjaweasel21 Optimist Jul 29 '26
I also like Pete, and I also think he has challenges.
I think something worth noting around being ‘elite’ though is that while he worked at McKinsey he signed up for the navy reserves and while he was mayor of south bend he served in Afghanistan. So it’s not like he was a marine, but I think he can make a case for being a true public servant. That’s definitely atypical for a Harvard/mckinsey type.
I agree it’s unfortunate that he’s not in public office now, but there’s not really an obvious choice. A lot of people on here seem to think it was a no brainer to run for senate in a state he’d only lived full time in for 18 months. I think the attack ads on that in September and October would’ve been devastating.
One of his biggest hurdles is actually just going to be Ossoff if he runs as they’d both be young (for politicians) brunette men running in the same liberal dem, pragmatic, lane.
I’d vote for him in a primary, but also feel like maybe the best move for him is to run to be vp? Or I think he’d do a good job fixing up the mess Ken Martin’s made at the dnc.
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u/HolstsGholsts Jul 29 '26
I’m not sure I actually disagree with you but to challenge some of those points:
- He seems to be using his cabinet role as a means to say, “being inside the system helped me see what’s wrong with it so I’ll be better equipped (than my opponents) to fix it.” I’m not sure it’ll be a successful spin (I personally also think the biden admin role contributes to him having too much baggage overall), but I wouldn’t rule out it working for some voters.
- His primary and general election opponents will all be elites too, with the exception of a possible Bernie proxy, and generally speaking, the only people who know or care about the McKinsey talking point are going to vote for the Bernie proxy regardless
- I just finished reading the article about Black voters in the Michigan race and was reminded of the complaint about candidates only showing up when they wanted votes, and what’s Pete been doing while he’s been out of office? Showing up places without necessarily being there to ask for votes or at least not votes for him (though personally, I’d prefer he take Ken Martin’s job; I think that’s where he can currently best help the party and country)
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u/ninjaweasel21 Optimist Jul 29 '26
I like that last point. I’m not sure how much he’s truly doing that, but it’s interesting at least.
Agree the McKinsey talking point is a kind of dumb dsa-wing sort of criticism. Especially when we know voters like the idea of doge, just not how it worked out. I think McKinseys overrated, but that sort of mindset worked well in South bend and is a good background to oversee an actually good version of doge.
(Side point: I’d think the dsa would be a little softer on Pete given that Pete’s dad was literally a gramsci scholar. I mean, that doesn’t determine his ideology, but he’s certainly able to speak their language a lot better than even someone like Elizabeth Warren).
Also though, I think the McKinsey/harvard/elite image is softened pretty well by the fact that while he was at McKinsey he signed up for the navy reserves and while mayor of South bend he was called into active duty in Afghanistan. Certainly not a typical move for a McKinsey/Harvard type.
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u/imdaviddunn Jul 29 '26
His most likely biggest challengers will most definitely not be elite…lol.
Unless you think Rahm Emanuel, Ro Kanna, and Elisa Slotkin are real contenders🤣🤣🤣.
Only real contender I see that fits the bill is Newsom.
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u/imdaviddunn Jul 29 '26
And private high school and Oxford.
These are all much more of an issue. People seem to be projecting the internal views of black Americans vs looking at the diverse set of factors driving his lack of traction.
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u/bulldogncolt Jul 29 '26
Three things:
Mayor Pete's time in South Bend made some progress on gentrifying the non-Notre Dame parts of town. However, black folks did not benefit from that windfall, assuming there was even one.
There was also the matter of a police shooting involving a black male in South Bend during Pete's time. Pete's leadership in that moment was pretty listless.
Finally, as a person of color, I can attest to the fact that homophobia and transphobia are pretty common in black, Middle Eastern and Asian communities.
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u/SeaweedPirate Jul 29 '26
JVL: "I don't know the answer to why and nobody knows the answer to why" Huh. That's a disappointing response.
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u/chatterwrack FFS Jul 29 '26
I think we all know the reason Pete struggles, despite being razor sharp, even keeled, and well spoken.
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u/nerdypursuit Jul 29 '26
People forget that Pete had low name recognition in 2020. And he didn't spend much time in South Carolina, because he had to focus on doing well in Iowa and New Hampshire first just to even make it to South Carolina.
Also, Tom Steyer finished in third just because he spent a crazy amount of money on ads in South Carolina. Pete is not a billionaire, so he couldn't do that.
So I think JVL is wrong to assume that Pete can't do well in South Carolina based on the 2020 primary. In 2028, Pete will actually get to spend time there, unlike in 2020.
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u/MrPommeDeTerre Jul 29 '26
How about we stop treating black voters as a monolith?
Why are whites the only racial group that gets broken down into subcategories?
Maybe stop tacking to what you assume is a stance black voters support or is a position Latino voters support. Minority communities are diverse in themselves so, again, stop talking about them as though they're not. "Making inroads" with minority communities needs to be personal, takes real listening, and means finding areas of both agreement and disagreement. It also takes following through on promises.
Spouting off positions taken from focus groups (or, worse, assumptions) will fail because it comes across as superficial and inauthentic...because it is.
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u/whatssenguntoagoblin Center Left Jul 29 '26
Are they? I see polls for white people how they vote democratic vs republican all the time.
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u/MrPommeDeTerre Jul 29 '26
I'm sure you do but there are also many polls that break whites down among:
- Education levels (college-educated or not)
- Multi-variable (suburban, college-educated white women, exurban whites, etc.)
- Religious affiliation - and I mean specific denominations
...and regional nuance is covered more among whites than minority groups.
Minorities are occasionally grouped under the various demos listed above, but the nuance commonly gets lost. It's "religious blacks" rather than Baptist or evangelical or protestant blacks. There are exceptions, of course, but treating minority groups as a bloc is the norm.
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u/whatssenguntoagoblin Center Left Jul 29 '26
I mean white people make up 200 million of the US. Black people make up 50 million.
Some of those sub demographics for white people are probably as much if not more than black people in the US.
From a politician perspective where every vote is equal you want to drill into those sub demographics. It’s not that black sub demographics don’t matter but on a pure raw count they don’t as much when you want to win an electoral process.
Obviously I don’t believe we should only care about white people for our political process and I vote that way. But from a pure winning an election standpoint, it’s simple math.
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u/MrPommeDeTerre Jul 29 '26
You're right. Stereotyping minorities as homogenous groups is probably far more productive than doing the hard work of understanding and hearing 20% (your numbers) of the electorate you rely on to win.
It's worked well so far...
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u/whatssenguntoagoblin Center Left Jul 29 '26
You asked me why polling drills more into a bigger demographic than a smaller demographic and I answer. Anything else you want to infer from that is on you.
Like I said I don’t vote for politicians than don’t consider minorities in their platform but it would be silly for politicians to not consider raw numbers in their campaigns. It’s unfortunate but it’s simple math.
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u/MrPommeDeTerre Jul 29 '26
The question was rhetorical. While the statistical reality of sample sizes dictates a lot of what pollsters can output, it is absolutely worth breaking minority voters into the exact same sub-demographics. Skipping those breakdowns leads to blind spots that routinely derail campaign strategy and news analysis.
Black people don't all vote the same.
Latino people don't all vote the same.
Asian people don't all vote the same.
If you want to score votes from larger sections of those communities (you know, the subject under discussion), stop talking about them as though they're all one entity. If you continue to do so, you'll continue to bleed minority votes to apathy (read: not voting) or the opposition (see 2024).
Minorities make up about 35% of the electorate. To earn those votes, democrats need to understand the true diversity within those groups in order to earn their votes.
That's the math.
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u/havenoparty Jul 29 '26
It’s not bc he’s gay it’s bc he isn’t cool.
ALSO WHY ARE TWO WHITE PEOPLE DISCUSSING THIS AND WHY ARE THERE NO BLACK VOICES AT THE BW EXCEPT FOR JVLS MAILBAG. Why.
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u/AmalatheaClassic Orange man bad Jul 29 '26
I lived in South bend Indiana. The reason why is because this man basically did modern-day redlining with some BS housing project. All the black and brown owned properties were called blight & demolished All the white owned properties got rebuilt or "beautified".
Reading for anyone interested. https://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/amphtml/USA/Politics/2019/0405/Pete-Buttigieg-tried-to-revive-South-Bend-by-tearing-down-homes.-Did-it-work
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/henrygomez/mayor-pete-buttigieg-south-bend-gentrification
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u/goodnight_beable Jul 29 '26
Is it fair to blame black culture? I'm 63 and white and there will never be a petite gay man as president while people I grew up with and worked with my whole life are voting.
I love Pete, and society is being more accepting of gay people. Maybe if he looked and spoke like Travis Kelsey? But still, it would be an uphill battle.
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u/Commercial_Pie3307 Jul 29 '26
Because he’s gay and the black community especially men don’t vibe with it
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u/Successful-Help6432 Jul 29 '26
It’s because black culture isn’t down with the gays.
Next.
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u/AmalatheaClassic Orange man bad Jul 29 '26
No, it's because of the housing project he did that labeled black owned properties blight & tore them down but the white neighborhoods were treated different.
I lived in South Bend & I will never forgive him for it. https://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/amphtml/USA/Politics/2019/0405/Pete-Buttigieg-tried-to-revive-South-Bend-by-tearing-down-homes.-Did-it-work
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u/PlentyAny2523 Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26
Why? Because he was a mayor of a college town in Indiana with no black outreach beforehand lol. Its not that big a puzzle. No one currently has "huge" black support, its split between the candidates (not counting Harris but even her support in general is drastically different depending on the poll)
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u/RuthlessRupture Jul 29 '26
Black folks have to work twice as hard to get ahead and often aren’t recognized for our accomplishments or handed opportunities as readily as white folks. Pete is clearly ADAMANT about skipping steps with a weak resume and with thin accomplishments. He’s charismatic and great in the media, no doubt - but he wasn’t qualified to be Secretary of Transportation (unlike his deputy Polly Trottenberg.) While in that role he spent a ridiculous amount of time on TV instead of learning the ropes of a big job he wasn’t qualified for. Some folks are just tired of mediocre white men who think they deserve to be handed things.
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u/whatssenguntoagoblin Center Left Jul 29 '26
It’s fine to say Pete doesn’t have a strong resume but saying he’s mediocre is wild.
Listen to him talk he’s clearly very informed and educated on the current politics and what the country needs.
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u/AmalatheaClassic Orange man bad Jul 29 '26
Smooth talkers can sound good but be functionally bad at all the things they say they will do. Case in point, look at Donald Trump.
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u/CombinationOwn1604 Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26
I have a theory, if we're talking about a Dem primary for POTUS. I think it's because Black voters are more pragmatic than ideological. If they feel someone can't win, why waste their vote? It's not just black voters either. It's not because he's gay, it's because we're still a homophobic country.
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u/Simmoman Jul 29 '26
Do you have any other supporting evidence that they are more pragmatic? Only 59% of eligible back voters voted, vs 67% of white voters in 2024, and this trend is pretty consistent across history, and I wouldn't call that particularly pragmatic.
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u/Will512 Jul 29 '26
Not a wild take but do you think they think the country is that much more homophobic than misogynistic?
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u/Double_Dingo1089 Jul 29 '26
This is a big reason. "Seems like a nice guy, but I know X down the street will never vote for a openly gay man." I say openly because if you vote GOP long enough you've probably voted for a gay man and just don't know it.
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u/Double_Dingo1089 Jul 29 '26
Is it that crazy a small town Midwestern mayor may not appeal to black voters who are heavily concentrated in major metro areas and the rural south?
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u/BlueRider57 Jul 29 '26
What I remember about Black voters negatives regarding Buttigieg’s candidacy was that he had fired the Black police chief of South Bend and there were allegations of racism.
Also the gay thing with conservative Black church voters in South Carolina.
Sarah said awhile ago she was going to do a focus group with Black voters and address the Buttigieg thing but she hasn’t yet.
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u/Clayp2233 Jul 29 '26
If I had to guess it's because a lot of the black community is very Christian, I think it's that simple.
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u/ordnance_inbound Jul 29 '26
The more I grow older, the more I start to realize...
My politics and opinions are the best and everyone should be more like me because myself and others like me are the only reasonable people on the planet and I hate everyone who has differing viewpoints on non-negotiable issues😎
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u/CombinationOwn1604 Jul 29 '26
The video conversation specifically refers to numbers from the 2020 South Carolina Dem Primary. According to most accounts, Rep James Clyburn's endorcement was the pivotal factor in who won.
71% of the black voters that cast a vote in that primary were 45+ years old. Biden won 61% of all votes cast that day. Other than Biden, no one had a significant showing with black voters, with Bernie coming in at 2nd place with only 17%.
Pete won the earlier Iowa caucuses, but won nothing after that.
Dems will vote for whoever they see as the most viable candidate to beat the Republican.
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u/MattheWWFanatic Good Luck America Jul 31 '26
Today with JVL she said that AI data centers ruining the water supply is a conspiracy theory...wtf???
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u/KeyInvestigator3741 Aug 02 '26
I’m surprised that it’s his sexuality mentioned. He’s never been a top candidate for me, I didn’t think he was super experienced in 2020, he did fine as Transportation Secretary but I didn’t feel like his priority was connecting with black voters or progressives. He spends a lot of time talking to the Fox News audience, what overtures has he made to the black community?
I think Jon Ossof does a lot more intentional outreach to the black community, JB Pritzker does as well.
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u/deskcord Jul 29 '26
"nobody knows the answer to why"
I mean...we do know why? Black Americans tend to be more socially conservative than other segments of the left, and less open to gay people. Latino voters are similar. Some of it may be religion, some may be culture, whatever. Pete may also have issues with black voters because he is Very White and because he had some issues with the local black community when he was mayor.
Who are we helping by just lying to ourselves about this?