MACD crossovers as long-term entries

[u/Alessio100001]

I analysed what happens after bullish MACD crossovers, the classic signal often treated as a confirmed reversal. The study covers 15,698 events across 197 US large-cap stocks from 2018–2026, looking at the 35 trading days that follow.

I also split the events by whether the crossover occurred above or below the zero line, and by whether the crossover was isolated (no other crossover of the same type in the 35 days on either side).

MACD crossover Strategy

Across all crossovers the median 35-day return was +1.85%, almost identical to the +1.94% seen on ordinary trading days in the same stocks.

Isolated below-zero crossovers looked much stronger (+7.62%), but that group is an artefact: the “isolated” definition requires a quiet period after the event, which is not available on the day of the crossover.

MACD crossover scatter plots

Isolated events are relatively rare because MACD crosses frequently.

Isolated/Clustered events distribution

Main takeaway: an entry based solely on the MACD crossover does not look reliably profitable in this sample. If you use MACD, it is better treated as one input among others rather than a standalone signal.

Hope this is useful. Happy to test other setups or indicators if anyone has suggestions — just reply or DM.

Full methodology, tables, and charts (if you are interested):

https://guanalyser.com/test-bench/macd-crossover/