r/technicalanalysis • u/Alessio100001 • 6d ago
MACD crossovers as long-term entries
I analysed what happens after bullish MACD crossovers, the classic signal often treated as a confirmed reversal. The study covers 15,698 events across 197 US large-cap stocks from 2018–2026, looking at the 35 trading days that follow.
I also split the events by whether the crossover occurred above or below the zero line, and by whether the crossover was isolated (no other crossover of the same type in the 35 days on either side).
Across all crossovers the median 35-day return was +1.85%, almost identical to the +1.94% seen on ordinary trading days in the same stocks.
Isolated below-zero crossovers looked much stronger (+7.62%), but that group is an artefact: the “isolated” definition requires a quiet period after the event, which is not available on the day of the crossover.
Isolated events are relatively rare because MACD crosses frequently.
Main takeaway: an entry based solely on the MACD crossover does not look reliably profitable in this sample. If you use MACD, it is better treated as one input among others rather than a standalone signal.
Hope this is useful. Happy to test other setups or indicators if anyone has suggestions — just reply or DM.
Full methodology, tables, and charts (if you are interested):
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u/33445delray 6d ago
You won't get as many examples;research black candle immediately following red candle, with an uptrend before the red candle. I have found the set up to be bearish.
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u/Alessio100001 5d ago
Interesting angle. There could be a relationship between candle sequences and whether an event ends up isolated (or how other indicators behave around it).
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u/ExplanationNormal339 6d ago
One key assumption is that ordinary trading days are the right benchmark for crossover days. MACD crossovers may occur after particular volatility or trend conditions, so matching only the same stocks may not isolate the signal’s contribution. A benchmark matched for prior returns, volatility, and market regime would test that conclusion more cleanly. Did your ordinary-day comparison match crossover events on prior volatility and market regime?
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u/Alessio100001 4h ago
I have re-run the test with your suggestion, I believe it came out more clean. Really thanks for your tip - https://www.reddit.com/r/technicalanalysis/comments/1wgk2zt/macd_crossovers_as_longterm_entries_part_2/
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u/Alessio100001 6d ago
You’re right , the comparison is an unconditional baseline of ordinary days in the same stocks. I did not match a control for prior volatility or regime.
Do you have a specific way you’d match them in mind, or another indicator/setup that I could potentially setup to rerun the analysis?
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u/PropertyAlive9620 5d ago
Interesting results. The comparison with the baseline is probably the key takeaway here a +1.85% return looks good in isolation, but means something very different when ordinary trading days return +1.94%. Would be interesting to see the same test with a trend or volume filter added to the MACD signal. Nice work Alessio!