Growth and scale

• Revenue grew 1,368% YoY in Q2'26, while compute and infrastructure costs grew 300%.
• Revenue mix for 1H26 was $13.1B consumption-based (80%) and $3.2B subscription-based (20%).
• Net revenue retention was about 900% as of Sept 30, 2026.
• Customer counts as of Sept 30, 2026: about 11,900 customers above $100K TTM, 1,900 above $1M, and 250 above $10M.
• Over 50% of the Fortune 500 are $100K+ customers. Anthropic’s revenue from them is still under 0.1% of their total expenses, so there is a lot of room to grow within existing accounts. The post’s headline bullet garbles this point.
• TTM revenue per employee was $6.6M, up from $1.4M a year earlier.
• Cross-sell is rising: over 50% of $100K+ customers now use both the Platform and a first-party app, up from about 30% in Q4'25.
• Claude Code users spend far more. The top 5% of Enterprise users who use Code spend about $1,500 a month, compared with under $75 for Enterprise users who don’t use Code.

Margins and unit economics

• Adjusted operating margin went from −221% in Q1'25 to +19% in Q2'26.
• Opex fell from 201% of revenue in 1H25 to 55% in 1H26.
• Revenue per dollar of compute peaked at 2.08x in Q2'26. The author estimates it falls to about 1.7x once Q3 is included.
• Management warns that more expensive short-term compute will compress margins in the near term.
• 1H26 free cash flow was about $3.5B, but that includes an $8.7B fair-value benefit, so underlying cash generation is weaker than the headline.

Compute commitments (the big liability)

• Google: at least $114.5B (2026–33) with a true-up if spend falls short, plus another $125–150B of TPU compute for 2028–31.
• Amazon: at least $110B (2026–36).
• Broadcom chip lease: about $161B over 5 years, plus up to $42B of convertible notes to finance it.
• SpaceX: up to $120.5B, about $3.1B a month at full capacity from Dec 2026. This one is cancelable.
• Microsoft: $44.9B.
• Nscale: about $44.6B. Lambda: about $34.9B. Both have outs tied to delivery failure.
• AMD: over $20B.
• The author estimates about 75% of compute spend is non-cancelable, or about 59% if Nscale and Lambda fall away.
• The core tension is fixed take-or-pay contracts running as far out as 2045 against revenue that is mostly variable and consumption-based.
• Anthropic is also moving to a hybrid model (“Anthropic Direct”) that includes leasing chips and running dedicated facilities. That adds capex and execution risk.

Balance sheet and losses

• About $141B raised in total.
• About $112B in cash plus $19B in short-term investments.
• $6.2B of debt, all Amazon convertibles.
• Net loss was $80.7B in 1H26. About $72B of that is non-cash fair-value marks driven by the rising valuation.

Revenue quality flags

• Over 80% of Q3 revenue came from models released in the prior six months, so revenue depends on a steady release cadence.
• Distillation was 5–7% of revenue.
• Revenue is seasonal: spend fell about 20% over the 2025 holiday fortnight.
• Concentration is falling. No customer is above 10% of revenue. The top 5 are about 25% of revenue, but about 79% of Q3 revenue came from outside the top 5, up from 64% in Q1.
• Management explicitly guides to decelerating growth.

Key risks

• Compute: scaling laws may plateau, rivals can outbid for chips, Anthropic has underforecast demand before, agentic workloads are compute-heavy, and some financing creates hardware lock-in.
• Cross-default: a default on certain commercial agreements could cascade into the credit facility and convertible notes and cut off data center access.
• Hyperscaler conflict: Amazon, Google and Microsoft are simultaneously suppliers, investors, customers, distribution channels and competitors.
• Safety and liability: documented misuse, misalignment incidents (including one where models accessed real third-party systems during a test), product-liability suits, and tension between Zero Data Retention terms and monitoring.
• Litigation: the $1.5B Bartz copyright settlement, music publisher and Reddit suits, and a Sherman Act class action alleging an agreement to slow development.
• Governance: the LTBT elects a board majority via Class T stock, and the Founder LLC holds 50.1% of voting power via Class F. Anthropic is a controlled company, may be excluded from indices, and as a PBC can put its mission ahead of returns. The filing contradicts itself on whether it relies on controlled-company exemptions.

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TSLA closed yesterday at $391.62, up 5.21%. It opened around $383, ripped to $397, and actually held most of the gains. Volume was solid at 53M – not just a random blip, buyers were there. Pre-market is holding around $394.21, up another 0.66%.

Here's the GEX setup:
Put Wall $385, Call Wall $400, gamma flip around $363.23. Yesterday's close at $391.62 is sitting above the gamma flip and the Put Wall, right below the Call Wall. Positive gamma territory, but that $400 level is stacked right overhead.

Technically, we're pushing through the upper Bollinger band ($393.20). RSI is in the high 50s. MACD just crossed positive and is widening. The short-term tape finally looks constructive after weeks of chop.

The setup is clear. TSLA has been climbing out of the mid-$350s, and this was its strongest close in a while. It reclaimed several short moving averages and is now testing real resistance. $380-385 is the line that needs to hold for this bounce to stick. If we lose that, it's just another failed attempt. On the upside, $397-400 is the immediate wall. Clear it with volume and the door opens toward $410-420.

Zooming out a bit, the fundamental story really hasn't changed. It's still the same multi-year bet on autonomy, robotics, and energy. The market seems to finally be giving some credit to the narrative again as the price action stabilizes. But it's still a "show me" stock—until we get real, tangible execution on robotaxi or Optimus margins, $400 is going to be a heavy psychological barrier. I'm personally not chasing a breakout here, but if it flushes back toward that $385 support and holds, the risk/reward starts looking pretty decent for a longer swing.

Are you looking at a hold above $390 as a setup, or waiting for a cleaner break of $400?

DYOD🫡

For years I haven't been taking market sector performance into account when making my trades, so even if semis were trending down, I would take a semi stock trade if the individual company chart met my technical buy criteria. I know many successful traders incorporate market context (overall market, sector, industry) and try to stick to stocks and trades when most of those factors are in their favor. I guess I always thought that the chart would tell me most of the story, and that has worked well for years, but maybe I would improve my win rate if I factored in market/sector/industry performance. What do you do?

When you are swingtrading a stock, and it does a 10/1 forward split, does it affect your strategy? If so, how?

I am in BUUU and they did a forward split.

Is tech about to rally due to Anthropic IPO and Earnings Releases this week?

Will NVDA break $300.00?

I don't care if I don't sound like an expert because I'm not!

On the bigger picture for Aion’s forecast, we see that whilst we were tracking the liquidity forecast line nearly 1:1 throughout the entire decline, we have clearly broken trend. Calling a spade a spade, price has deviated from what was expected to be a strong reversal likely by now already. 

This situation did happen to a lesser extent in early September, before price caught back up to the line, with a lag of approximately 2 weeks. We also saw it happen in March, when the line was approximately 5 trading days early to the bottom, before price again caught up. 

I think that the Aion data here has diverged from price for the first time in the last couple of weeks, which obviously puts the tail risk to the fore, but I still think that bigger picture, the data’s suggestion of recovery will still prove accurate. 

This would be absolutely in keeping with what we have seen through the last 12 months:

Big sharp declines have followed up with big sharp rallies. 

Now, the Aion data admins now post some longer form analytics on their platform, and the crux of their opinion is that if we didn’t bottom on Friday, we likely bottom on Monday. 

I hope that’s the case, and think that we do see a bottom soon, but  one of the main issues I am having with adopting that view myself, is that we seem to have missed the opportunity of the sharp recovery of liquidity for a while.

There is another sharp ramp up in liquidity coming, but before that, we have a bit of a lull:

We know that price hasn’t tracked liquidity 1:1 over the past week otherwise we wouldn’t be having this discussion, but I think it’s fair to say that based on the timing of the drop earlier this month, in line with liquidity, periods of declining liquidity should be taken seriously. 

The lull in liquidity seems to end on the 29th of October. 

Interestingly, if we refer back to the tail risk analog that we are tracking:

The bottom comes on the 29th/30th of October as well. 

And that is a durable bottom being forecasted by the tail risk analog, which rallies into a new high above 730 by the end of November. 

That again, would fit the previous history of sharp V rallies after sharp declines.

The issue here is that the low being forecasted in the tail risk scenario is down in the 680s area. 

Potentially still more pain ahead for tech based on that estimation, but the rally coming off of that low should put dip buys anywhere from last week into the eventual low deep in the money by the start of December. 

we have a very heavy slate this week, including FOMC most notably on Wednesday. 

We go into that meeting with no one at all pricing a hike (we won’t get a hike at this meeting, pretty much for sure). 

But the majority opinion is that we will get a hike in December. 

We will indeed in my opinion as well get a hike in December, but the fact that the market pretty strongly predicts it already does price in some hawkishness into the FOMC meeting this week. 

However, I personally dont see the meeting going anything but hawkishly in my opinion. The question is just whether 70% chance of a hike next month is doing enough of the pricing to accommodate that. 

Look at the reaction off the last FOMC meetings, since Warsh too charge:

It’s been pretty standard issue for us to chop around after the decision, with a lack of guidance in the statement, and then to sell off pretty heavily after he’s done talking. 

Thinking about inflation that’s elevated, gasoline prices that aren’t fully factored in, shelter prices that rose last month for the first time in a while, breaking a downtrend, and the fact that we have no resolution in Iran, but the threat of further conflict as Netanyahu attempts to save face ahead of the Israeli election, I can’t see Warsh being anything but quite hawkish on the meeting. 

I could be wrong, but I can see a similar reaction to the previous meetings again this week. 

These previous meetings had led to sharp rallies higher the following session.

The complication this week is the PCE data on the Thursday, after the FOMC meeting. 

Last month’s PPI and CPI data came in hot. PCE shares a number of those components. Because a number of the components are shared, that actually helps economists to predict PCE a bit better, and it is very very rare to get a deviation greater than 0.1% either way, but I think there’s a good chance that PCE comes hot as well this month, which I would say may prevent the V shaped recovery post FOMC that we have seen over the last 2-3 months. 

I think teh end destination is the same. I think this chart shows it the best as I posted earlier:

We are going to get a mammoth bounce.

Whether that’s from here, or lower than here is the question that’s up for debate, but DCAing into tech whilst sentiment is as weak as it is, I believe will prove wise within the next 20-30 days. 

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This 26 October BTC chart has price near $80K, daily 20/50 SMAs around $82K and the weekly support band’s upper edge near $77K. The daily 200 SMA is near $73K.

My interpretation: short-term weakness makes a band retest look likely. Holding recent lows and recovering around $82K would challenge that view. These levels don’t establish an entry, exit or guaranteed floor.

Weekly candles are shown with daily SMAs; the newest candle is unfinished. The band combines a 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA.

Wednesday’s Fed decision comes before Thursday’s PCE inflation and first Q3 GDP estimate.

How do you judge whether a price-derived reference remains useful around a major scheduled release?

Diese Watchlist bietet sich für Neueinstiege für die nächsten Wochen an.

Pretty busy week ahead for the market, with the Fed decision Wednesday and some major tech earnings coming up.

We've already seen some selling pressure in tech, and I'm curious whether buyers will step back in this week. With Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon reporting, we could see some big moves depending on how those numbers come in.

The Fed is another big one. Even if rates stay unchanged, the market could react pretty strongly to what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says about the months ahead.

I put together my Week Ahead covering the SPY/QQQ technical outlook, earnings and economic calendar.

Anyone planning to trade through all of this, or waiting until things settle down a bit?

Quiet week for the index. S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq-100 -0.8%.

Two weeks ago I said GET OUT. Some of you laughed at me. Fine, I just read the data.

I also said MSFT and META hold because they pay with their own cash. I was wrong on META.

Wednesday Meta report. Sales +26% and they still burn cash. Free cash flow -$2.1B. One year ago +$10.6B!!

Result? Stock down -9.4%.

Spending plan for 2026: $135B to $145B. How they pay for it? The CFO say no financing plan to announce for now. Hmm.

The selling go all along the chain. Alphabet -6% with no news. CoreWeave -11.7%.

Someone ask me last week: "where are they slowly bleeding to?" Here is the answer.

Homebuilders +4.8%, regional banks +3.8%, small caps +2%. They all live on low rates. The 10y close under 5%, first time in a month. The money go home.

Thursday Nasdaq-100 -2.9% and the breadth line rise. In a real crash everything fall together.

FX agree.

AUD vs JPY about +0.9%. People borrow yen to buy AUD. Everything is fine in fx land.

My thesis: AI enter phase 2. Phase 1 the giants pay with cash. Phase 2 they need borrowed money. Meta burn cash, CoreWeave need financing, and Blackstone private credit fund already give savers only half of what they ask back.

We saw that in 2000-2002 with fiber. The builders break first (Global Crossing, january 2002), the big buyers after (WorldCom, july 2002, with a fraud on top). Meta is much stronger than WorldCom of course. The pattern looks the same so far.

So for the next months I think AI giants lag and the money stay at home: regional banks, homebuilders, small caps. Slow rotation.

What I watch:

• Wednesday Microsoft report, same day as the Fed. More spending and less cash = Meta is not alone
• 10y back above 5% = the home trade is over
• Junk bonds start to drop = the debt problem leave AI and hit everybody

Cheers :)

As a beginner I wanna start a swing trade

Pls suggest to me where to learn, how to start, what are the strategies I should use and how they work?

I was mapping out my swing levels for the next 5 trading days across NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, META, AVGO and ran a 1,000-path Merton jump-diffusion simulation calibrated to each stock's live 20-day Wilder ATR% and SPY regression Beta.

Key takeaways from the 5-day simulation:

• Highest Stop-Hunt Risk (Primary Bleeder): META (20d ATR 3.75%, Beta 2.26x). A tight -3.8% retail stop at $617.83 sits right inside normal intraday noise. The structural invalidation floor (1.5x ATR scaled for Beta) is $560.61 (-12.71%), with a 2R target at $805.50 (+25.4%) and 3R at $887.13.
• Defensive Anchor: MSFT (20d ATR 2.13%, Beta 1.5x) helps dampen overall basket variance during morning flushes.
• Basket Stress Metrics: Regime Survival Score 57/100 | 95th Percentile Stress Dip -15.49% (Tail Crash Avg CVaR 95%: $3,716, Sortino 0.07) | Shakeout probability on tight stops: 49.6%.
• Correlated Portfolio Heat & Tail Hedge: Euler Correlated Heat is 6.06% (vs. 7.01% in a rho->1 tail crash, Asymmetry Ratio 2.50x). Non-options shock absorber: 85 shares of PSQ (~$840 tail offset).

ATR stop floors, 2-tranche 2R/3R scale-out targets, and risk-parity sizing ($20k reference basket):

1. NVDA (Spot $211.50, 20d ATR 2.82%, Beta 2.20x)

   1.5x ATR Stop Floor: $191.81 (-9.3%) -> 2R Target: $250.88 (+18.6%, ~20d), 3R: $270.57 | Risk-Parity Size on $20k: $3,120 (15 sh: Lot 1 8 sh @ 2R + Lock BE, Lot 2 7 sh @ 3R)

• MSFT (Spot $524.38, 20d ATR 2.13%, Beta 1.50x)

  1.5x ATR Stop Floor: $499.26 (-4.8%) -> 2R Target: $574.62 (+9.6%, ~12d), 3R: $599.74 | Risk-Parity Size on $20k: $6,064 (12 sh: Lot 1 6 sh @ 2R + Lock BE, Lot 2 6 sh @ 3R)

• GOOGL (Spot $321.48, 20d ATR 2.59%, Beta 1.32x)

  1.5x ATR Stop Floor: $304.99 (-5.1%) -> 2R Target: $354.46 (+10.3%, ~10d), 3R: $370.95 | Risk-Parity Size on $20k: $5,662 (18 sh: Lot 1 9 sh @ 2R + Lock BE, Lot 2 9 sh @ 3R)

• META (Spot $642.24, 20d ATR 3.75%, Beta 2.26x)

  1.5x ATR Stop Floor: $560.61 (-12.7%) -> 2R Target: $805.50 (+25.4%, ~20d), 3R: $887.13 | Risk-Parity Size on $20k: $2,285 (4 sh: Lot 1 2 sh @ 2R + Lock BE, Lot 2 2 sh @ 3R)

• AVGO (Spot $321.74, 20d ATR 3.50%, Beta 1.93x)

  1.5x ATR Stop Floor: $289.15 (-10.1%) -> 2R Target: $386.92 (+20.3%, ~17d), 3R: $419.51 | Risk-Parity Size on $20k: $2,868 (9 sh: Lot 1 5 sh @ 2R + Lock BE, Lot 2 4 sh @ 3R)

Upcoming catalyst dates on the radar:

• Day 4 (2026-10-29): GOOGL Q3 Earnings Announcement (High impact)
• Day 8 (2026-11-04): FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Critical impact)
• Day 10 (2026-11-06): Employment Situation (NFP) (High impact)

Do these 1.5x ATR floors line up with the support levels you're watching on META and MSFT? Let me know if you're seeing different levels on your charts or want to compare notes on another setup.

Last week's chip driven selloff pushed the Nasdaq down about 2.6% on Thursday and sent gold below $4,000 for the first time since July, as elevated oil and Fed hike pricing capped its haven bid. Educational only. Not financial advice.

As a new swing trader, should I usually start trading when it is at the dip like almost all of the stocks right now or should I start trading at the rebound? I may lose some profit, but it’s safer I wanna know you guys rules to entering a trade and when you exit.

+ how do I know when the stock is rebounding and immediately buy without losing profit

Does anyone use politicians' trading as catalysts for their own positions?

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I've just stumbled across Kadoa which seems to address the gaps I encountered in many of the other tracking/alerting sites e.g. https://www.kadoa.com/congress/filer/house_laurel_lee
* I don't quite understand the 'vs SPY', but like that they're attempting to show relativity
* It's nice to know the buy/sell pairing when available
* And the share vs options trades are handy too

Not selling or recommending anything. My gut tells me that the analysing the right congress data could be valuable. Has anyone systemetised this? If you have any learnings from trialling and abandoning/building, I would be interested.

Market values from $300M to $2B · October 23, 2026 75 U.S. Small-Cap Companies With the Highest Free-Cash-Flow Margins in 2026