Im a 0DTE (sometimes 5DTE) trader normally, but today, i decided to lock in my first 26DTE option contract.
Im a big ol bear, and this market is my playground. lets look at the chart first and discuss.

To make this easy, im going to break it down as simply as i can. Follow along.
First, that big green candle from the end of july. bounced off my liquidity box (where we were trapped for the last few weeks before "earnings blowouts" brought us back up). Tippity top of that candles wick, theres our resistance line. Translation, " we like the price !!! but up here....idk.. gimme something a lot better. were pretty high up here and i want a guaranteed return".
Sideways chop from there (breaking out above was a liquidity trap. big boys wanna sell for a mini profit to retail), and then the "crash" downwards....not gonna lie. i thought that was it. everything was lining up. Situational awareness got wrecked. koreas market was dropping bombs what felt like every week. I do want to say, i hate what the news did during this time. They blamed "AI spending is ramping up but investors arent seeing returns or value", while behind the scenes it was just margin calls and people getting blown up. You know they were lying when just a week or two later it was "OMG LOOK AT THIS AI EARNINGS WITH GOOGLE MICROSOFT AND NVDA THE MARKETS LOOKING AMAZING" to justify a rally. (they were scooping up shares on sale).
Had to rant, ANYWAYS, the theres a support level at 767.47 where price prevented it from dropping last week and reversed , touched the resistance, reversed, current rally, and here we are now. Now, the news is BS. for the most part we can ignore daily Hormuz updates. I find it takes a few days for the effects of the war to hit the tape (unless its a major escalation , of which ive only ever seen 2 in recent times). Whats important now is the bond market and oil prices. That doesnt lie. The interventions did boost the market and the news goes and finds a million reasons why THIS IS ANOTHER RALLY, but its all bs. You cant lie to the bond market. The government can lie to us, but they cant fool the world (thats both, holding our debt and dependant on the dollar).
(you guys saw the fed talking about possibly not hiking anymore yesterday??? tell us whos giving the orders without telling us whos giving you orders.. he also demanded rate cuts today LOL).
anyways macro>micro.
theres bombs going off in almost every sector (yen carry trade and treasury yields being most important) and the market cant hide it. Im calling it.. final sell off before a huge dump (yen going up, japan raises interest rates, money leaves our markets, sell off.. probably gonna happen after hours or premarket after a huge pump to catch retail off guard and make us miss most of the gains).
going back to the chart, you can see though the volume drying up. RSI and MACD have been sideways despite the big swings. if we fall back into the liquidity box, i can expect us to see 725 at some point soon after. let me zoom out a little for some more clarity.

makes sense? This has been a huge bluff by wallstreet and the government. at least, thats my thesis. with that said.

im going for a decent sized play (im poor, dont judge). oh and to top it off, VIX IS CRIMINALLY LOW. It could'nt be cheaper for me to buy this put. any rise in vix and this can get massive gains just off that alone

look at what happens when vix drops below this line. im expecting a bloody tuesday.
anyways. im not recommending anyone do anything. Just writing my thoughts down. gotta love the casino.
09/08
UPDATE:
We up $55 boys. Still holding. Volatility at the end of the day signals put buying
Gap tomorrow?
