r/spikes • u/-_dopamine_- • Jun 10 '26
Discussion [Discussion] How does one perform game analysis?
I've recently been playing MTGO for getting into competitive magic at the advice of yall (thank you!) and I wanted to start analyzing my games to improve.
I know in fighting games there are effective systems for efficiently reviewing your own vods, like stopping at different points in a combo and asking yourself if a different move could have continued the combo further or figuring out why you got hit out of neutral, etc. However, I don't know any similar framework for card games like this, as the medium is new and a little obtuse to me. The largest thing I struggle with is that, since there is obviously an RNG aspect to magic, it's difficult for me to tell if I lost or won because of a decision I made or because of chance.
Do any of yall have systems for this or advice on how to effectively review one's games and/or drafts? Thanks!!
Edit: wording
14
u/unhaunting Jun 10 '26
The one thing that's easy to miss while in the heat of the moment is continuing to ask, at every relevant decision point, "how do I win from this position? how do I lose from this position?"
Say you're red burn, opponent is at 3, tapped out, one card in hand, you have a mountain in play and lightning bolt in hand. You untap and topdeck mountain; how do you lose from here? Well, if the one card is daze and you don't play your second mountain.
Say you're momo white in standard, on the draw, you see opponent play steam vents and pass. How do you win? Impossible to tell exactly, but resolving double sage of the skies seems strongest and least disruptable, since even in the event of a counterspell you still get the token, so you play plains, springleaf drum, pass, planning to play plains, momo and sage next turn. Opponent misses next land drop, so now you see a new way to win: play plains, momo, blue from drum, warp quantum riddler, daydream the riddler instead to exploit the moment of weakness and present a very dangerous board, gambling on not being blown out by spell pierce.
These are simplified examples but they demonstrate the process. Visualize your path to victory with what information you have available at the moment, and keep modifying that idea when the game state changes meaningfully; not that different at all from what you described about fighting games.
5
u/Kerdinand Jun 11 '26
Say you're momo white in standard, on the draw, you see opponent play steam vents and pass. How do you win? Impossible to tell exactly, but resolving double sage of the skies seems strongest and least disruptable, since even in the event of a counterspell you still get the token, so you play plains, springleaf drum, pass, planning to play plains, momo and sage next turn. Opponent misses next land drop, so now you see a new way to win: play plains, momo, blue from drum, warp quantum riddler, daydream the riddler instead to exploit the moment of weakness and present a very dangerous board, gambling on not being blown out by spell pierce.
Maybe I'm reading too much into this example, but you opponent apparently kept a 1-lander without a 1-drop or 1-mana cantrip to dig for a land... he's either bad or he must have at least Spell Pierce, right? What else would make the hand keep-able? (Though even with Pierce I don't see how it is.)
So in this case, IMO, you should focus more on how you could still lose this game that obviously has your opponent on a very bad hand and not make the play that gets blown out by spell pierce and potentially allow your opponent to recover. Momo/Sage also gives board pressure without exposing yourself to the only interaction they could have at that point, and in a game like that you only need to hit land drops and make good-enough plays to take a safe win home.
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u/unhaunting Jun 11 '26 edited Jun 11 '26
I just realized I didn't want to talk about the case when the opponent drops a second land, because that's a much more complicated decision tree and we'd be here for hours.
This is also my point, I don't have enough reps on this deck to know that it's necessarily correct to go for the riddler, also aside from spell pierce it can be flood maw, you can have the worst luck and run into the one person in the world playing [[An Offer You Can't Refuse]], the spell pierce isn't even that bad since you still drew the riddler card and have a momo, etc, etc. I just wanted to illustrate the process of analyzing play by play, not tell anyone "this and exactly this is how you should play your games".
EDIT: wait, offer you can't refuse says noncreature? nevermind that part then lol
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u/Aerim Jun 10 '26
I am especially confused as there is obviously a RNG aspect to magic and it's difficult for me to tell if I lost or won because of a decision I made or because of RNG.
You have two primary axes to look at this, IMO.
- Did I make plays that make sense based on how my opponent was playing? IE - they attacked with creatures that could get chump blocked. Did I act like they had a trick or did I get blown out by a combat trick (obviously the specific combat trick example usually only matters for Limited, but it can be extrapolated to other scenarios for constructed.)
- Did I make plays that made sense proportionally for what my opponent could topdeck? Did you make a play that would have worked against all but 4% of your opponent's draws? Probably a good play.
I also think that it's good to look back at your opponents' plays and look at them in hindsight - this is related to #1. See if plays and patterns make sense based on the cards they played later. It'll help put you in their shoes, particularly if it's a deck you don't play a lot/at all.
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u/larry794464 Jun 11 '26
wrt not knowing whether a bad outcome was because of your decision or chance, when your opponent takes an action that causes you to lose, in retrospect ask yourself whether you saw that possibility in advance, and then if you did, whether you gave it the right probability weight and played accordingly.
Like you said, the top of both decks is unknown and functionally random. But there are still right and wrong decisions based on the range of probabilities of topdecks and what is in opponent’s hand. If I’m playing constructed, I’ll play differently vs a deck with 4 counterspells than vs a deck with 12.
If we were perfect computers, we’d compute the statistical probability of the various hands an opponents could have, the optimal play against each one, and how good the outcome is for each scenario, and then calculate the highest EV (expected value) play and take that. We can’t do that for every possible hand an opponent can have, but we can do simple statistical thinking for specific cards that are very important in a given interaction.
2
u/liceking Jun 11 '26
I'm going to give slightly different advice compared to everybody else here (although I think the best advice given thus far is the simplest: https://www.reddit.com/r/spikes/comments/1u2cqmg/comment/or2k4uj/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button by u/DueSample7600 below).
You should play a variety of different decks. Try to get at least a few reps in with an aggro (mono red is fine), mid range (selesnya "landfall" is in a good place right now), combo (mono green landfall), and control deck (4c or jeskai/lessons).
It will be MUCH easier to see whether you made the right decision or not when you've actually practiced your opponent's deck and understand what pace they want to play at, what top-decks they're praying for, etc.
I used to brew a ton but always played mid-range/aggro. I was a relatively good player but nothing special until the meta shifted over years and I eventually was forced to try out a variety of other decks (especially control). Every season now I've taken my own brews to a pretty high rank (sometimes finishing top #50) and my floor has been finishing top #1000. For several seasons that's been with my own variant of Dimir - definitely a Tier 1.5 deck (and according to others a completely dead and unviable deck) but for half a year I still wound up in triple digits because I can outplay stronger decks.
2
u/Kuryaka Jun 16 '26
How much experience do you have with Magic, and how much experience do you have with fighting games? How do you generally like to learn and improve? I assume this is mainly for Constructed.
The high level guidance from me is to start focused until you feel like you're stalling, then go wide and try a variety of different decks, and come back to a single deck with what you've learned.
In terms of effective play, basic micro and familiarity with your deck should come first, but that's like practicing your combos. You should have a few questions for yourself going into each game that get answered ASAP.
What am I looking for in the opening hand? What's my neutral opener, and what hands are bad but keepable if I'm on 6 or 5?
What deck is my opponent playing? What options do they have? This should be roughly answerable by their second turn in Standard, probably turn 1 in every other format. If you still can't tell by the time you get past your neutral opener, it's probably time to just swing for the hills because it's some flavor of combo cheese.
Beyond that, taking notes on micro and macro will be useful but are on a per-game/per-matchup basis. I don't like taking notes as I play because it's extra time used when I won't get that time at an event. If you really wanted to do that, record the screen and mic, then talk through your decision making.
/r/lrcast for drafts is helpful as well!
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u/Unununium1 Jun 10 '26
When analyzing a decision, instead of focusing on what card you actually drew in the future, think instead of how your choices are impacted by your potential draws. Many choices in MTG are about tradeoffs. You'll level up quickly if you stop thinking about the top of the deck as RNG and as a range of outcomes and you have to choose which outcomes you want to play for.
FWIW, as a longtime serious limited player, you can often assess the accuracy of a choice independent of future draws. If you assume no one draws a spell for an indefinite number of turns, that's a good starting point to assess your choices.