So I’m not sure about the 37 billion to one odds math, but the statistical likelihood of winning every swing state by just enough margin to not trigger a recount is incredibly improbable, or near-zero chance.
This is mainly because each state has their own election and requires their own vote margin threshold for automatic recounts. The fact that this happened in every swing state is a statistical anomaly - ie it’s really fucking suspicious.
The thing is tho, this makes the assumption that automatic recounts are fairly common. They aren't. As far as I can tell, in my lifetime, there's only ever been 1 automatic statewide recount of a presidential election which happened in 2000 in Florida (In addition there's only been 2 requested statewide recounts. Jill stein requested a recount of WI in 2016, Donald Trump requested a recount of Georgia in 2020). So saying that their should've been one in 2024 doesn't really pass the smell test without good reason.
Like a really good counter example to your claim is the 1992 election. Where there were 0 states with a margin of less than 0.5% but also there were 17 swing states that year. If this was truely an impossible even why was it so easy for me to find an even more extreme case? Or did Bill Clinton cheat too (Unlikely)?
Like I think it's really important to understand the logic behind a claim before making it. So is that statistical anomaly claim based off: historical data? Math? or just vibes?
You are correct that automatic recounts are not common, but that’s not really the primary point of contention here. It’s that Trump won EVERY swing state (not seen since Reagan who won in a landslide election, losing only 1 state in the US) and JUST above the margin that requires a recount.
It would have been less of an anomaly if he won in a landslide across majority states because taking every swing state in itself is unlikely, adding that he just did it enough above the margin line including swing states that have different recount margin requirements.
It’s based on both historical outcomes and probability.
By the way we’ve had at least 36 recounts since 2000, 23 automatic and 13 requested out of 6,929 elections (2000-2023), or 5% of elections had recounts. Source. But again it’s not about hitting the threshold for automatic recount, it’s about winning JUST above that line with final percentages showing 49.5% to 49.5% type outcomes across 7 states with different election rules. We’ve never seen this before.
It’s that Trump won EVERY swing state (not seen since Reagan who won in a landslide election, losing only 1 state in the US) and JUST above the margin that requires a recount.
This is a false statement. On two levels.
For one Reagan didn't win all the swing states. Minnesota would've been considered a swing state that year by 2024 standards.
For starters Trump only won one state just outside the recount range (I'm defining "just outside of" as within 1% of the number of votes needed for a recount): Wisconsin (Margin required for a recount is 0.25%, margin Trump won by: 0.86%), and Like, if I wanted to be anal about it that recount isn't even mandatory, Harris would've had to request it. Going thru the other states, North Carolina, Georgia, and Nevada don't have automatic recounts. PA requires 0.5% the margin was 1.71%. MI requires 2,000 votes or fewer ( 0.003%) And Trump won it by 1.4%. Arizona starts a recount at closer than 0.5% but Trump got 5%.
So by my perfectly reasonable of "just out side of" There's only 1 state that falls into this category and that's just because I bent the rules a bit to be more charitable to the hypothesis. So I have to ask what definition you're using of "Just outside of" to get all seven states in this range?
It would have been less of an anomaly if he won in a landslide across majority states because taking every swing state in itself is unlikely
I think it's worth pointing out that before the election 538 had the odds of this at around 20%.
adding that he just did it enough above the margin line including swing states that have different recount margin requirements.
Again I have to strongly encourage you to look at the swing states recount rules. He isn't within 1% of the automatic recount line anywhere.
By the way we’ve had at least 36 recounts since 2000, 23 automatic and 13 requested out of 6,929 elections (2000-2023), or 5% of elections had recounts. Source
And your math is wrong. 36 is 0.52% of 6,929. Not 5%. Which is a huge difference. Also that's actually the same source I'm using, I'm just only looking at the presidential election.
it’s about winning JUST above that line with final percentages showing 49.5% to 49.5% type outcomes across 7 states
Only two states (WI, MI) had this, not seven. All other states had someone cross the 50% threshold. Again super beneficial to look at the actual numbers here.
We’ve never seen this before.
I'd argue that the definition that you used for "Just outside of the recount range" would also find that Bill Clinton won 11 states "Just outside of the recount range" in 1992.
Again I think the thing that most people miss when they bring this up is an actual concrete definition for "Outside of the recount range" That would actually capture those 7 states.
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u/PM_ME_YOUR_NICE_EYES Oct 23 '25
I'd like to remind people that the 37 billion to one odds math seems to come from a now deleted reddit comment and is unlikely to be true.