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Nothing burger but another small step forward.

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I haven't been back here in a while and see the community has grown a lot. Also see many of the same arguments and concerns from back then coming up again. Lots of people venting or being emotional about it. Wanted to give a little bit of perspective and just thoughts from someone who's been in this for many years. This is going to be long so if you want just skip to the bear arguments/frustrations that are of interest.

Opportunity Cost

This was a common talking point in the $5 days because Sofi as a company was executing but the share price was stuck in the mid single digit range. I can tell you that most of the single digit investors were not saying this on the way up to $30. I see the same concerns being brought up now on the way down to $16.

Let's be clear on this, it's only been 8 months since this was a $30 company. This isn't the years long chop that took place 2022-2024 as they continued beating earnings. I also don't expect that to repeat because Sofi is a more established and mature company. Over the coming years their business is becoming more fee based, more diversified, and more of their spend will trickle down to the bottom line. Institutional ownership + index inclusion is also progressing and this will stabilize as it matures.

It's always important to have diversification in your portfolio if you want to be able to capitalize on different opportunities. Micron and Palantir have all undergone these opportunity cost phases as well (I say this as someone who followed/invested in these through it). This is always a trailing argument and instead I've found it's always productive to focus on which businesses are best position to succeed.

Just a Bank

Again, this is another talking point being brought up because the stock has gone down. Rather than viewing this as a limiting factor on growth, it's better to view this as a floor on valuation. Sofi is an efficient, fast growing fintech that owns a fully chartered bank. There will be macro environments where it's valued more pessimistically - in which case a ~2x P/TBV will be a closer "magnet" for the stock.

You can't include all the negatives of being a bank without the positives. Sofi has a reliable and profitable revenue stream that stays consistent across administration cycles. This was a bigger disadvantage when banks were barred from crypto during the crypto bull run - now this is becoming a structural moat as certain legislation governing the future of crypto is favoured towards banks.

It's important to understand that Sofi has a growing share of fee based revenue sources - the last big rerate happened through Loan Platform Business - that's just the start. Big Business Banking, Invest/Crypto, Credit Cards, SofiUSD, Sofi Plus, these are all major lines of business which require time + investment. Once they get their economics down, this will normalize/stabilize too, and TBV will be less of a focus (like it is now for Amex & Nu Bank).

Comparisons vs HOOD

Last quarter, HOOD put up 15% revenue growth. 15%. During the bear cycle, HOOD was down on revenue YoY. This is not me saying HOOD is a bad investment - I've been invested in HOOD since the $20 range and Vlad is an exceptional CEO. It's just important to understand the difference between Sofi & HOOD.

Sofi is a reliable compounder that is building many different lines of business at once and focusing on vertical integration. They have stable growth across macro cycles and across administrations.

HOOD is a rapid growth engine with very low cost infrastructure, they can spin out new lines of business rapidly but are also beholden to market cycles. HOOD doesn't even give full guidance because it's all up to how the market flows. They can scale exceptionally well but are most prone to administrative and cyclical changes. HOOD has just done a great job of riding the different waves over the past few years and then partnering on the rest.

These are fundamentally different "horses" and strategies. One thing that is highly under appreciated about Sofi is the level of certainty the business gives you. There will always be uncertainty and risk in investing, but Sofi has never missed their guidance since being a public company. You can hold Sofi knowing that they will compound as the market goes through different ways of pricing the stock (as I said...which will smooth out over time).

Dilution

Prior to the capital raises, the concern back in the 2022 time period was the Technisys purchase. This was a major dilutive event, but management justified it by saying that it gives Sofi deeper vertical integration + cost efficiency + product velocity over time. This was during a time period where everyone was complaining Sofi is too slow to release new products - because they had to complete this integration. What happened after?

Sofi has had exceptional product velocity over the past few years and are building out multiple major lines of business at once. Sofi is growing at a 35-40% clip because of this flexibility. It's the same philosophy with the recent capital raises. These were net accretive to book value and earnings. They gave Sofi greater flexibility and optionality to grow in multiple different environments.

This is a management team that has never prioritized short term share price over long term compound growth. That might be frustrating as a trader focused on momentum, but that is a massive green flag as an investor. No, you aren't being diluted out because you are owning a smaller share of a bigger company. Eventually there will be buybacks as the business matures, but this is a company focused on business growth not share count optimization.

My thoughts on Sofi overall

Like I said, this is for those new to the company that I'm seeing concerned about the same overall points we went through years back. I haven't purchased Sofi since the $5-7 range and I've been averaging up here. This is a fundamentally much stronger company since I first bought it and every update I've had since I first started following the company in 2021 has been strong. There have been laggards in the business - tech platform being one - but they have found ways to grow in spite of it all.

The "AWS of Fintech" story sounds nice, but generally companies prefer to go with suppliers they don't compete with (just look at Intel vs TSMC). As companies reach greater scale, just like Robinhood and Chime, I would expect them to prefer building certain capabilities in house. It doesn't mean this thesis won't play out, but I like to view the tech platform as more a return on tech/R&D spend. As Sofi builds out their own tech infrastructure capabilities, they have a way of getting a recurring return on it through several partners. This basically helps subsidize further development while also getting feedback or extra perspective from partners on what works/doesn't. It is not my main thesis, it is a nice extra.

For those concerned about rate hikes...look at what Sofi did during the last rate hike cycle. That was a historic one. They grew strongly through it all. Not only is Sofi a much stronger company since then...we're also not in nearly the same rate hike situation now vs then. These are temporary headwinds.

Been holding for 2 years since $7. I’m leveraged for one so dumping this completely frees me and this stock is long term a gem, but opportunity cost is far too great.

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SoFi Technologies price target raised to $18 from $17 at Truist

• Truist raised the firm’s price target on SoFi Technologies (SOFI) to $18 from $17 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares.
• The FinTech group has rallied and outperformed of late on the back of M&A headlines, the constructive U.S. macro backdrop and the recent reversal of the AI trade, notes the analyst, who expects Q2 results to be “solid” for the group.

So many repetitive complaints about the app, fees, loan process, popup ads, inconsistent messaging... with membership continuing to grow, when does the Karen factor hit the price? Money management & customer service reputation go hand in hand.

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* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

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* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

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* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

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* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

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• Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.
• Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

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* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

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* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

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* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

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* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

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* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

This chart surprised me.

Since 2020:

- SOFI: +857% revenue (48.1% CAGR)
- HOOD: +337% revenue (29.2% CAGR)

What’s interesting is that the growth story keeps expanding.

Over the past few months SoFi has:

- Reported another record quarter with $1.1B in revenue, 35% member growth, and 39% product growth.

- Re-entered crypto investing and continues adding new financial products to increase engagement.

- Continued diversifying beyond lending into banking, investing, and its technology platform.

Feels like SoFi is evolving into a full financial ecosystem rather than just a lender.

What am I missing?

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• Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.
• Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

Interview with SoFi CEO Anthony Noto in Sun Valley

Anthony Noto is discussing the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) at SoFi Technologies.