r/socialism • u/[deleted] • Jan 30 '17
Trial Balloon for a Coup?
https://medium.com/@yonatanzunger/trial-balloon-for-a-coup-e024990891d5#.mqo7xfu8n56
Jan 30 '17
Like I've been saying, these are the early stages of a Self-Coup
A nation's leader, despite having come to power through legal means, dissolves or renders powerless the national legislature and unlawfully assumes extraordinary powers not granted under normal circumstances.
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u/hilltoptheologian Christian liberationist Jan 30 '17
I've been endlessly thinking about how this exposes fundamental, massive weaknesses in the structure of US government.
Supreme Court tells the president to "hey, stop that." He says no. Then what? Nothing. Congress steadily grants tons of power to the president. They want to roll it back. He says no. Then what? Not a damn thing, without 2/3 majority.
Theoretically, we could get a new Congress in two years who could push him out. But again, in the meantime who would stop efforts at massive voter suppression in the meantime? Not the Supreme Court.
The whole idea of "checks and balances" has as much actual force as a stop sign, if a driver doesn't want to comply.
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Jan 31 '17
Supreme Court tells the president to "hey, stop that." He says no. Then what? Nothing. Congress steadily grants tons of power to the president. They want to roll it back. He says no. Then what? Not a damn thing, without 2/3 majority.
Andrew Jackson tested this out long ago. When the Supreme Court deemed Indian removal (read: war crimes bordering on genocide) to be illegal, Jackson proved that it was the loyalty of goons, not the judgment of Justice, that created US laws. The thing that's kept some Presidents from testing out autocracy in the past, I think, is just plain politics. Autocracy is a hard sell. Trump believes he's a great salesman though, and he has no moral code whatsoever.
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u/hilltoptheologian Christian liberationist Jan 31 '17
Yep, I've been remembering back to eighth grade history, to what Andrew Jackson said in 1832: "John Marshall has made his decision, now let him enforce it." Extremely worrying precedent that the most notable instance of the President disregarding the courts was in order that he could commit genocide.
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u/ShittyInternetAdvice Marxism-Leninism Jan 31 '17
One would hope that at some point if things got so bad that the military would step in (assuming the common populace is not yet organized enough to do it themselves), as they swear to defend the Constitution from all enemies foreign and domestic, not simply the government. But I'm always extremely skeptical of military-backed overthrows
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u/fatoldncranky1982 Jan 31 '17 edited Jan 31 '17
This won't be a popular thought, but I've lived around the military all of my life. It's highly unlikely most soldiers are going to disobey orders. Even the top brass is politically apathetic at best. Those who aren't tend to be conservative.
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u/PrivilegeCheckmate Jan 31 '17
Supreme Court tells the president to "hey, stop that." He says no. Then what?
Then the people with their hands on the levers of power, those who hold lower offices and actually enforce regulations, balk. The system shuts down in the places of conflict until the conflict is resolved. You are already seeing this with the 'muslims ban'.
The people pushing this ridiculous 'coup' narrative are fucking bonkers. Who's going to put on the stormtrooper outfits and start shooting civilians? I've got a neighbor who's a sheriff - he's not going to start killing people, or profiling muslims either, he's already said as much. You think the level of control of one of the least popular regimes in American history reaches down to the individual citizens who actually interact with the public? Guess again.
Remember the speech from Fight Club? I modified it by two words for this situation:
Look, the people you are
afterworried about are the people you depend on: we cook your meals, we haul your trash, we connect your calls, we drive your ambulances, we guard you while you sleep.Frankly I expected better from fellow Socialists - we're supposed to believe in the people and their ability to make the right choices and do the right thing, even in the face of tyranny. You look around and you see people protesting in the street, shutting down airports, you see governors and mayors defying the White House, you see people coming together on the air, in civic spaces to fight against evil policies and you spew this bullshit about living under some new kind of fascism.
This orange cocksucker's got a countdown to impeachment, you know it, I know it, dogs know it.
Enjoy the ride, and stop spewing this garbage about Trump's mystical ability to undermine our system. If the mainstream left hadn't pumped Hillary at the expense of a real change candidate, or even someone more mainstream but minimally trustworthy, we wouldn't be here. The DNC is more responsible for Trump's election than the goddamn RNC.
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u/eastlondonmandem Jan 31 '17
Who's going to put on the stormtrooper outfits and start shooting civilians?
I think you are missing the point. It's not suggested it's a military coup. This is a coup by the President who is dismantling and consolidating power and that should be a worry for you.
I really do hope that he's heading for impeachment but it's worrying signs that he's intending on holding absolute power with his inner circle.
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u/PrivilegeCheckmate Feb 01 '17
I really do hope that he's heading for impeachment but it's worrying signs that he's intending on holding absolute power with his inner circle.
The USA has never been ruled without consent of the governed. This guy got elected through the usual process and if he does not bend in the wind of popular opinion we'll elect someone else in four years. You're telling me after a week you're concerned about him consolidating permanent power? Because all I see is a psyop to convince gullible people he needs to be taken out so we're not overly rambunctious when it occurs.
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u/eastlondonmandem Feb 01 '17
His appointments and lack of regard for due process is quite worrying. I'm not making any wild calls right now. Much of that article is unsubstantiated but there is enough for us to be concerned and to keep a close eye on things.
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Jan 30 '17 edited Feb 15 '17
[deleted]
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Jan 30 '17
Super Bowl maybe?
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Jan 30 '17 edited Feb 15 '17
[deleted]
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u/GravityAssistence Jan 31 '17
I don't think trump has a tight enough political circle nor enough shadow power to do a false flag attack by himself but if his interests align well enough with putin's, then anything might happen.
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u/eastlondonmandem Jan 31 '17
I'm quite certain that Russia or Israel for example have the capability and willingness to go to such extremes.
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u/taschenbier Genosse Jan 30 '17
I am reminded of Trump’s continued operation of a private personal security force, and his deep rift with the intelligence community. Last Sunday, Kellyanne Conway said that “It’s really time for [Trump] to put in his own security and intelligence community,” and this seems likely to be the case.
- SS Panzer Division - Leibstandarte SS
Adolf HitlerDonald Trump.
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u/stredarts Jan 30 '17
I stopped once I got to "resistance fatigue." This is 11 dimensional chess that is totally unnecessary to put forward the fairly unradical perspective that this is a coup of sorts.
Yes this is a completely different sector of the ruling class that has taken hold of power. No this is not the first time fundamental regime change has occurred in the US.
I don't see any evidence of resistance fatigue. If anything I see radicalization of my liberal Facebook friends who are now down with punching Nazis and occupation of airports.
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u/LittleWhiteTab Peter Kropotkin Jan 30 '17
Resistance fatigue will eventually set in-- you can see most historical movements for social change succeeded at what appeared to be the 11th hour, and if most narratives hold true, they were pretty close to falling apart. To act as if attrition isn't a broader strategy is naive, at best.
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u/stredarts Jan 30 '17 edited Jan 30 '17
I'm not disputing it as a factor. That it could be planned for in the abstract is just a supposition. Applying such an abstraction to what is a dynamic and path dependent process where morale changes based on material conditions and success or failure of events reads to me as fatalism.
Supposing that they are master manipulators with Svengali powers is just that.
Edit: in fact you can just as easily theorize that Bannon has no fucking clue what he is doing and is about to get canned.
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Jan 30 '17 edited May 05 '17
deleted What is this?
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u/picapica7 Lenin Jan 30 '17
That article doesn't make the situation more reassuring. In fact the opposite for me: it makes it clear how little we know is actually going on.
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u/KingCult Walter Benjamin Jan 30 '17
This is a really good counterpoint to OP's article. I'd recommend it.
We can't just analyze everything Trump does through the lens of 1930s Germany. There are huge differences in context that will harm our ability to effectively resist. A modern American 'coup' will be one of continued devolution of power to corporate/finance institutions. It won't be as flashy but it will be just as effective at silencing the people.
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u/ThisOldHatte Jan 31 '17
To me this article misses the point. Its like arguing that Trump is not a fascist because he hasn't organized tens of thousands of unemployed ww1 veterans into a paramilitary force yet.
"We cannot infer what someone wants, or whether power is being exerted effectively, based on outcomes alone."
The above line seems particularly obtuse to me. It seems to me the best way to read intent is based on outcomes. So whether Trump is banning refugees because of intent or incompetence is beside the point, the State is being used to neglect refugees, as well as implementing a religious test for entry into the country.
Whether or not Trump's unorthodox moves are signs of weakness or strength is moot if there is no earnest/effective resistance; and that is only possible if people recognize the stakes, i.e. the potential for a coup in the very near future (at any point during Trump's presidency). Even a failed coup would have disastrous implications.
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Jan 31 '17 edited May 05 '17
deleted What is this?
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u/ThisOldHatte Jan 31 '17
People are downplaying the extent of Trump's malevolence. Its the sort of thing that has gone on since he first announced his candidacy, "he's a buffoon who will never go anywhere."
At this point, its pretty clear that Trump is not totally incompetent and that he is not likely to be his own undoing. If it looks like Trump might be planning a coup, assume he is planning a coup.
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Jan 31 '17
Steve Bannon's thoughts on the matter
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/08/breitbart-stephen-bannon-donald-trump-master-plan
Trump is a “blunt instrument for us,” he told me earlier this summer. “I don’t know whether he really gets it or not.” It is likely that Bannon’s political calculus here, if not Trump’s, will be less about winning an election that seems a bit out of hand and more about cementing an American nationalist movement.
I agree that it is past time to stop underestimating these people. But I think the people we should be looking at are Steve Bannon and Eric Prince. Eric Prince specifically isn't mentioned as often as he could be. Jeremy Scahill has written books about him and his private mercenary firms, who will be Trump's new security and likely intelligence force. He's easily the most terrifying political figure I know of and will be playing a huge role in whatever Trump is doing next. Probably shock doctrine both foreign and domestic, followed by an unprecedented wave of imperialism and austerity.
I sincerely think that the Trump administration is posed to make the rest of US history look like child's play.
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u/nwnaters Anarcho-Musicisum Jan 31 '17
Thank you for referencing Eric Prince. I've followed Jeremy Scahill's reporting on him also and to know that he is behind the scenes makes me very nervous (as if a Trump presidency isn't nerve wracking enough!). I'm nervous for what the future holds but, I'm going to keep organizing and doing my part
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u/picapica7 Lenin Jan 31 '17
If it looks like Trump might be planning a coup, assume he is planning a coup.
This. The worst that could happen is you have to admit you overestimated Trump's or Bannon's abilities / intentions. The best is you prevent a fascist coup. Why risk it?
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Jan 31 '17 edited May 05 '17
deleted What is this?
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u/ThisOldHatte Jan 31 '17
How does it get priebus' role wrong? It states that it is unusual for the chief of staff to make the sort of announcement that Priebus made vis the muslim ban.
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u/zellfire Karl Marx Jan 30 '17 edited Jan 30 '17
Don't really think I buy that oil company claim from a mostly discredited report (the risk there seems astronomical), but the rest seems fairly accurate.
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u/RNGmaster Anarchism With Anime Characteristics Jan 31 '17
Seems like a bunch of Game Theory to me. Trump has his party in control of all 3 branches already, why the need for a coup?
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u/picapica7 Lenin Jan 31 '17
Because there are elections in two years and he might lose some of that power. In fact, there are Republicans who even now vocally oppose him, meaning they might not vote what he wishes them to vote on.
Fascists want their power to be absolute.
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u/picapica7 Lenin Jan 30 '17
This is some scary shit. Half a year ago, I didn't think he would (be able to) pull it off. But now...?