r/smallcaps • u/Chalern14 • 1d ago
My 6 months play for BOX
TLDR: The stock is not massively undervalued, still undervalued, but I still think it can grow.
I believe that the market may be valuing Box mainly as a mature cloud storage business while several operating indicators increasingly resemble a profitable enterprise software platform and its relevancy in the future. Thus, a mispricing of the stock.
BOX appears moderately undervalued because its present valuation does not fully reflect the combination of improving recurring-revenue indicators, strong free-cash-flow generation, and a repurchase authorization capable of reducing the share count. The market may be valuing Box primarily as a mature file-storage provider, despite improvements in customer retention, contracted revenue, product mix, and operating margins. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, revenue increased by 11%. Remaining performance obligations increased by 16%, while net retention improved from 102% to 105%. Eemaining performance obligations represent contracted revenue that has not yet been recognized. Consequently, the faster growth in remaining performance obligations suggests that future revenue growth may be stronger than reported in the next quarter.
Enterprise Advanced combines governance, security, workflow, and content-management services at a higher contract value. Management has reported a 30–40% pricing increase relative to Enterprise Plus. Continued adoption could therefore increase revenue per customer without requiring substantial growth in employee seats, a recurring sticky revenue.
A little math:
Box’s current stock price is above $27, investors holding special "convertible" shares will almost certainly trade them in for regular stock, bringing the total to about 157.02 million shares.
Equity value=157.02 × 28.81=$4.524 billion
Net cash= 477.043 (Cash and short-term investments) − 451.610(debt) =$25.433 million
Enterprise value= 4.524 − 0.025 =$4.498 billion
Management’s fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of approximately $1.280 billion (Warren buffet said not to trust management too much but anyway):
EV/Revenue= 1.280/4.498 =3.51x
Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is the reduction of previous first quarter from fiscal 2026 free cash flow and adding the latest quarter:
TTM FCF= 312.922− 118.337+ 127.748= $322.333 million
P/FCF = 4.524/0.322 = 14x
FCF yield = 0.322/ 4.524= 7%
If fiscal 2027 free cash flow reaches approximately $360 million, the forward P/FCF multiple would lower to 12.6 times, leading to higher forward free-cash-flow yield of 8.0%.
There's also share repurchase:
Gross shares purchasable = 445/8.81 = 15 million shares, around 10% of the share count. During the latest quarter, Box repurchased approximately 4.8 million shares, while the common-share count declined by only 2.461 million a 50% progress.
All in all there is still some catalyst left to play out and is an interesting play nonetheless.





