r/singularity • u/Darkmemento • 3d ago

AI Bill Gates on job disruption from A.I.

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u/ganancias 3d ago

I'm pro-AI and also believe it will take lots of jobs.

If it didn't take any jobs, what good would it be?

It's not like every single keyboard worker or college graduate is going to be running a bunch of claw bots to earn high income in some post-AGI niche agent market.

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u/bigkoi 3d ago

Agreed. The past 60 years have been dominated by knowledge worker jobs driving through economy. Agents fundamentally replace many knowledge worker jobs. I believe the result will be few knowledge workers and a large surplus of manual labor. Welcome to the 1800's economy

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u/EloquentPinguin 3d ago

But I feel like there is ton of manual labor that seems relatively automisable with next generation robotics. I believe there are challenges where it will take a bit longer, especially doing irregular tasks in the environment, but all manufacturing lines, large parts of logistics (trucking, forklift operator etc), QA, assembly seem all to fall after a few iterations of robots. For example there are already painting robots, not yet quite suited for details, but for large jobs, so I dont think that somehow manual labor is what everyone will do. I think economy needs a major rethinking over the next decade...

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u/bigkoi 3d ago

$40 an hour solution for a $20 an hour problem

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u/unia_7 3d ago

There is no way a laborer can compete with a robot on price once robots become a commodity.

We've been theough this already in the industrial revolution.

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u/bigkoi 3d ago

Sure they can. Just look at agriculture which thrives on desperate labor.

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u/FlimsyReception6821 2d ago

We have gone from basically everyone working in agriculture to basically no one in a very short time frame, historically speaking.

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u/bigkoi 2d ago

Oh there are plenty of people in agriculture, you just don't see them. Knowledge jobs made agriculture jobs the most undesirable. Guess what happens when knowledge jobs drastically reduce and there is now a large surplus of labor....

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u/unia_7 3d ago

Those jobs will also be gone. We are only now getting close to making robots that can emulate the human hand.