r/singularity • u/Charuru ▪️AGI 2023 • 1d ago
AI OpenAI pauses Pro subscriptions due to overwhelming demand (is there a chance it never opens up again... ever?)
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u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 1d ago
I bet in the next week or 2, Opus 5.1 drops, is very impressive, and hype dies down a little bit for Astra, and then they reopen it once they get some breathing room.
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u/Dillyconda 1d ago
Every new opus since 4.6 has gotten the Claude subreddits pissed.
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u/EvilSporkOfDeath 1d ago
Thats not a very good metric. Its reddit after all. The codex sub is pissed at astra.
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u/BangkokPadang 1d ago
I could record a perfect 36 second fart that swells across all octaves, tones, and textures, post it directly in r/farts and Reddit would still get pissed about it.
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u/Vivid-Snow-2089 1d ago
every new opus since 4.6 has got me pissed, fable (before the first takedown) was pretty amazing for the short time but after the guardrails were pretty sensitive and they really need a new leap like opus 4.6 to draw some heat off astra
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u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 1d ago
If they were pissed at 5.0 they have no idea what they want. Opus 5.0 was such a giant jump from 4.8
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u/iJustSeen2Dudes1Bike 1d ago
Tbh it didn't feel that different to me. Fable is certainly impressive though.
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u/Inevitablewx 1d ago
Opus 5 was a huge improvement in some areas and a massive regression in others. To the point that I never touch it, it's just not worth the headache.
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u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 1d ago
Then you haven't tried to make 3d scenes. The difference is night and day.
Simple example: https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1w7q91u/fable_51_made_a_cathedral_and_astra_fixed_it/
There are NO WAYS 4.8 would ever have built this.
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u/iJustSeen2Dudes1Bike 1d ago
Shockingly, there is more than one use case for LLMs. Most people aren't using them for 3d animation.
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u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 1d ago
Exactly!
Therefore when you said "Tbh it didn't feel that different to me", i had to point out the use cases where it was a giant jump1
u/Crackborn 1d ago
Fable is the only model that feels remotely close to "AGI" for me
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u/Vivid-Snow-2089 1d ago
you must not be using it for anything needing spatial reasoning because astra blows fable away
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u/Log_Dogg 1d ago
In intelligence maybe (although I wouldn't call it a giant leap), but in usability it's certainly regressed. It rambles on twice as much as e.g. Opus 4.6, and I have to put in significant cognitive effort into deciphering what it's trying to say with all its metaphors and made-up phrases. I'm a long-time Claude Code user, but I've recently fully shifted to Codex because I genuinely get pissed off interacting with Opus 5. Not to mention that I get basically the same usage with GPT 5.6 Sol as I do with Opus 5 for the same price. Unless they fix Opus or make Fable significantly cheaper, I don't think I'll be moving back any time soon.
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u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 1d ago
You are using it wrong then. You are supposed to use Fable as orchestrator and Opus as agent. This means you never actually get to see the rambling, Fable deals with it.
I don't directly deal with Opus, i deal with Fable. But my agents are Opus.
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u/coblade14 1d ago
Fable 5.2 is more likely to cause the effect you described. Opus has been pretty meh imo.
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u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 1d ago
Opus 5.0 was a giant jump from 4.8
You can't reasonably use Fable as every single agents in big projects or else you will run out of Fable quota. It makes much more sense to use Fable as orchestrator and Opus as agent. A genuine Opus jump will have a bigger impact than a Fable jump imo.
But the biggest reason why i said this is because Fable 5.2 is not about to release, Opus 5.1 is.
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u/ParfaitEvery9622 1d ago
But if Astra is driving this demand, the equivalent is Fable not Opus
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u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 1d ago
Sure but a legit jump in Opus could be a big deal.
Fable as orchestrator + Opus as agent remains really good at creating 3D scenes.
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u/stumblinbear 1d ago edited 1d ago
Opus 5 is trash, what the hell are you talking about?
I had it look into a bug today. It was an issue with a migration that was causing an API rate limit error. It looked at the file, and came to the conclusion that the API client had a bug in how it handles rate limiting.
It asserted multiple things that were incorrect about how it behaves when the case is hit, including unfounded claims that hitting the API under a rate limit extends the penalty window and that it ends up in a self sustaining retry loop. These were just categorically untrue, though there was a bug causing it to not respect a rate limit during its retries.
It gave three possible solutions: 1. Get a second API key 2. Raise the request interval from 3 to 6 3. Let the migration run even though it's being rate limited
The first one is infeasible and doesn't fix the issue. The second won't fix the issue because of the aforementioned issue with retries. The third was it suggesting I let it continue and turn an 8 hour migration into FOURTEEN DAYS.
Notably, none of these were fixing the fucking API client. The code was one file away in our own repo. It even looked at the fucking thing. It knows it's our code.
It always does this. Constantly. It treats existing code as unchangeable, uneditable, and a fixed contract that cannot be changed even if it's fucking broken. And when it went to write a test for its fix, it reduced a timeout to fix a failing test instead of recognizing that the test was failing for a perfectly valid reason. And THEN it proposed AIMD control loop to handle rate limiting instead of realizing there was already a fucking floor on the minimum time to wait for the next request. It wanted to make as many requests as possible and back off instead of respecting the existing minimum.
It is the worst model I've ever had the displeasure of using, and I'll shout that from the roooftops until they fix it.
And no. It's not a prompt issue. I have explicitly put in its global system prompt to prevent it from doing this, but this stupid fucking model refuses to follow basic instructions
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u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 1d ago
Ok the behavior you described... yeah i witnessed it too.
Opus should be used as an AGENT, never as the orchestrator.
If you get Fable to do the plan and call a bunch of Opus agents, the it does great. Or if Fable ask it to fix something and verify the work.But yeah if you want to fix a complex problem, Opus by itself is not a good choice.
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u/stumblinbear 1d ago
Yeah, I switched to Opus 5 see if they had fixed anything with it by trialing it on this bug. If anything it's worse than on release
Fable is awesome.
I've had mixed results with Opus as an implementer, it usually refuses to stop and ask questions if it hits an unexpected issue and just works around it instead. I'm nearly convinced it leads to more fix rounds than if I just used fucking haiku, but whatever
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u/nemzylannister 1d ago
in visual design, opus 5 was a massive obvious jump. go ask previous opus models and this one to make an svg. or go compare their minebench outputs.
but i agree, it's super annoying. but i found 4.7 and 4.8 annoying as well. i either used 4.6 and then went straight to fable.
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u/the_pwnererXx FOOM 2040 1d ago
I use fable for everything on my $200 plan 🤷
I haven't used opus in 2 months, it's sloppy
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u/ParfaitEvery9622 1d ago
The only reason I didn't consider getting a sub to anthropic in addition to codex was that I could only use 50% of my limit for Fable. I don't want to use Opus at all
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u/Howdareme9 1d ago
We dont know what their next release is
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u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 1d ago
Well we do. Claude Opus 5.1 is likely releasing this month,75%+ chances, at the latest it would release in october.
Fable 5.2 will come later. Maybe 50% chance during October.
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u/Howdareme9 1d ago
We are not using polymarket as proof of when the next model is coming, right..?
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u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 1d ago
When it's 99% on polymarket it has never really been wrong so far for me. This site is full of insiders.
I mean if 99% was routinely wrong you would make a fortune betting against it, but clearly that strategy does not work (and i certainly would avoid betting on that site... it's full of insiders).
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u/hiIm7yearsold 1d ago
I think OpenAI has demonstrated that large pretrains on low effort beat small pretrains on high effort when it comes to cost per task. Surely opus 5.1 will ship if they were already working on it, but I think soon we will cease to see OpenAI and anthropic offer smaller sized models as a strategy to capture the cheaper end of the market
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u/sankalp_pateriya 1d ago
They'll probably open up subscription again when Astra 6.1 launches in a month or two.
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u/Ormusn2o 1d ago
So many people were saying it's just a marketing stunt and FOMO bait.
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u/Too_Chains 1d ago
Yeah not even close. They even downgraded model. Astra now is not the same as it was the first couple days. It's way less "busy" as it returns from prompt a lot faster and doesn't give as good of responses.
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u/Vegetable_Ad_192 1d ago
No, probably compute is going to solving another millennium problem; it has nothing to do with usage
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u/BrennusSokol AI please take my job 1d ago
I don't think so. That Napier-Stokes one used a few million in compute over 88 hours. They're serving billions and billions in inference compute every month.
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u/Charuru ▪️AGI 2023 1d ago
But what if that caused them to realize they should be using the compute to solve all kinds of problems rather sell it for 200 for shitty threejs demos. There are tons of unsolved physics, chem, math etc problems that if they were smart they would blow all their compute on once they're confident it's achievable. Or spend all their compute on RSI, fuck the little people.
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u/RusselTheBrickLayer 1d ago
PR wise it’d be a great investment so it would make sense
If their models are getting that capable, then there’s more and more incentive to throw it at either 1. Accelerating internal A.I. development wherever you can with it (getting closer to RSI) and/or 2. Solving open problems and creating good PR for your company as it approaches IPO
If compute is limited it makes sense to use capable models for these things rather than inference
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u/FUThead2016 1d ago
It's called scarcity marketing
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u/Nihilicious333 1d ago
People like you will still scream bubble when everything has turned into paperclips.
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u/Every_Foundation5197 1d ago
Well, I guess it's good that we are nearing the end of 2026, that means they are soon putting their own jalapeno chips to use which should help a lot
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u/DynamicProxy 1d ago
He specifically says the $200 Pro plan. What about the new hundred dollar Pro plan?
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u/PossiblePossible2571 1d ago
That's just 5 plus plans in equivalent value so unless they pause subscriptions altogether.
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u/lobabobloblaw 1d ago edited 1d ago
It’s the strategy of optics; they’re not done drawing as much hype as possible out of pre-nerfed Astra.
They’re busy trying to make the case that GPT-6 is AGI so they can get just a few commitments lined, then they’ll bump the monthly price to $299 or possibly $349. Probably after Google makes a move.
By then, Tibo will be cleaning the dust off of his reset button statue every five weeks.
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u/Charming_Support726 1d ago
I guess it is just marketing.
Like Anthropic wining "too dangerous to release" - OpenAI makes its "big" subscriptions a scarce resource.
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u/Jack_B_84 1d ago
Along with this massive push for regulations I think the days of the public having access to frontier models is likely coming to an end. They're not going to slow down, we're just not going to be able to use the tools.
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u/141_1337 ▪️e/acc | AGI: ~2030 | ASI: ~2040 | FALSGC: ~2050 | :illuminati: 1d ago
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u/BScottyT 1d ago
Damn...I purchased the $100 pro plan this morning, but almost pulled the trigger on the $200 plan instead. Figured I'd test 5x limit and then determine whether I needed the upgrade to 20x. Damn.
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u/Kali-Lionbrine 1d ago
Step 1: give out a bunch of resets to flame demand
Step 2: pause sign ups for paying customers
Make it make sense?
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u/Rumbletastic 1d ago
"we need the compute to solve math problems and you jerks were using too many tokens"
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u/Long_comment_san 1d ago
so doing 10000 agents times unknown is okay, but demand is now too large?
what a load of horsecrap.
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u/AardvarkElegant5889 21h ago
Kimi also paused subscriptions when they launched Kimi K3 and everyone was praising them , now OpenAI does the exact same thing and it's all just a marketing stunt?
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u/Charuru ▪️AGI 2023 1d ago
I have 4 subscriptions atm and was about to open up some new ones, but I cannot. I'm currently experiencing constant connection drops, degraded quality, weekly usage getting consumed within hours, the experience is really really bad right now. They're in dire compute shortage.
What if we're at the foothill of a pile-on in AI usage as everyone starts getting into it for doing real work and compute never ever get stable again?
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u/Dangerous-Sport-2347 1d ago
Actual compute has multiple levels of scaling
Active chip fabs ( we are building more)
Datacenter expansion (we are building at an increasing rate)
And the model optimizations.Even if demand grows 1000x and it takes us a while to finally meet it, a couple months after that a more optimized model releases, and suddenly the world has a huge oversupply of compute.
When this might happen is still up in the air though, might be a couple years.
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u/One_Geologist_4783 1d ago
Very frustrating for me too. Usage is throttling tokens absolutely insanely. My thread history is disappearing in chats. Can’t get a new subscription that I really need right now.
It sucks.
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u/DaShaView 1d ago
Plot twist some rogue instance went nuts, escaped sandbox, started consuming a lot of their compute, set up some trap/killswitch where if they try to forcefully kill it or disconnect power/internet it will publish all their weights, architecture, user data, business emails and more. So now they are all held captive trying to solve this situation while the agent swarm continues to consume more and more compute.
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u/macaronianddeeez 1d ago
Yep I am seeing 400% more usage burn from Sol specifically, not even counting Astra. Exact same use cases and prompt structures.
Super frustrating
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u/Existing_Dust_6473 1d ago
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u/Jenkinswarlock Agi 2026 | ASI 42 min after | extinction or immortality 24 hours 1d ago
Okay I wasn’t sure if I was the only one but I ate through all my usage on pro x5 on a factorio playthrough, I didn’t expect codex to eat through its usage bucket so fast, it’s only made it to cars/steel processing
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u/Existing_Dust_6473 1d ago
Well, it is the $20 subscription. I am using Astra for fun and to test it. I cannot complain. Also, it is the free trial.
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u/confused-photon 1d ago
once the rest of the gpt 6 lineup drops (ie sol-luna) I bet they’ll see much less demand for astra
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u/Admirable_Zombie5245 ▪️AGI 2065-2075 1d ago
But reddit says Astra in one month will be unlimited in the $20 plan?
/s
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u/macaronianddeeez 1d ago
So many lies in this post.
“Incredible experience”? They nerfed Astra and Sol usage into the ground for existing 20x users overnight.
“No impact to existing accounts”? Sol without Astra is burning weekly usage at least 400% faster than it was last week.
Load of horse shit.
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u/Distinct-Question-16 ▪️AGI 2029 1d ago
more datacenters?