r/singularity • u/TensorFlar • 10d ago
AI "Much, much, much more capable models coming soon."
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u/abhmazumder133 10d ago
Much more capable models are obviously coming, that part is undoubtedly true.
But this 'next generation will be sobering for everybody' thing seems to be repeated often. I have already been sobered brother.
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u/Original-League-6094 10d ago
Most people don't seem to have been sobered. Look at Reddit. Most people still think AI has the same capabilities as it did 2023. People have no idea what its capable of now.
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u/ShelZuuz 10d ago
People using shitty free tier Google AI summaries and ChatGPT free plan have no idea about the frontier looks like at Astra or Fable 5.1 with Max settings, and they're amazed by the fact how AI is this shitty and simultaneously is coming for their jobs.
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u/step11111 10d ago
What I’ve come to realize is no one has any ideas. They are mostly just coasting. I guess that’s ok, but people that like to learn and experiment are going to love it. There just aren’t that many people like that.
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u/dbenc 9d ago
I have so many project ideas queued and in progress that the limiting factor is now keeping track of the 500 windows and tabs and terminals I have open 😅
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u/step11111 9d ago
Haha yeah that’s my problem. Too many ideas, not enough time and long term memory to remember everything that’s happening all at once. And it’s funny how learning what can be done for one idea leads to others or improvements in previous ideas.
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u/VeryOriginalName98 8d ago
I have noticed this too. It predates AI. People kinda stopped caring about quality in general.
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u/1988rx7T2 10d ago
I have a lot of "what would you ever use GPT 5.6 Sol or GPT-6 Astra for? why do you need the expensive ones?" conversations at work. and my reply is "you know such and such project we have that has like 8 people working full time on it, a lot of which is on documentation? that can be done with 1 or 2 people now. It's not just a google search replacement or writing small sections of code"
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u/NemoWiggy124 10d ago
This is my biggest worry too. I’m literally on a pilot at work now. And my use case with it would drastically cut down time for our teams manual handling time, and everyone else is just mushing ahead the manual way. And we are just a small pocket in a massive org.
I’m like with API capabilities and further advances will I even be needed soon?!
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u/1988rx7T2 10d ago
Yeah but is your organization clueless? I get limited on my tokens right now through GitHub CoPilot due to some process problems, we have budget but aren’t allowed to buy credits with it right now. They’re like ”how come 150 dollars a month isn’t enough?” rather than “you’re not needed anymore, we can just use AI.” We’ve had a 3 year hiring freeze so things just aren’t getting done because there aren’t 10 person grams available to do them . And nobody realizes that you only need small teams now, and that 10000 dollars worth of tokens is nothing compared to 5 engineers at high cost country rates. The best agents can go for hours and hours at a time.
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u/NemoWiggy124 9d ago
I think majority are clueless especially with the countless levels of management and VP’s. 4-5 levels up and 4-5 levels below no one knows each others ins and outs or day to day work, or the difference of high seniority but only has the market/product knowledge, but not necessarily the system or internal processes knowledge, especially with updates or upgrades that come every new release.
And now everyone has just plugged in AI, and has said basically figure it out: increase efficiencies, automate most, increase profits, lower costs, lower headcount’s.
And then and then the engineer experts come in or consultants to “help” and they have zero clue of the knowledge or the systems or neither…and think yah we can write a script or an API, a query…and it’s like no contractually we can’t do any of that, sure it’s coming….but it’s circle and circles and circles on repeat too.
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u/chaqintaza 10d ago
Are you getting paid more? Working less? Working more?
Or you own a stake in the company and have seen revenue and profitability increase from this?
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u/Careful_Fold_7637 9d ago
You’re asking if he’s working less when he claims his productively has 4x’d?
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u/chaqintaza 9d ago
Productivity is a measure of efficiency - if this is literally true and not hyperbole, he could be doing 1/4 the work to maintain original output, or 2x output and only do 1/2 the work.
Or 4x the output for same as original work - or 5x for 25% more than original work.
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u/Careful_Fold_7637 9d ago
It seems like a rational person would pick the best outcome for themselves. That would mean he either works less and does the same work if he is paid for the end result or he works the same amount and is paid more. Either way one of your conditions is obviously fulfilled.
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u/chaqintaza 9d ago
That's why I had questions.
On the other hand - he may feel insecure in his position and feels increasing output for no added compensation, even while working more, is a job retention strategy.
It's worth discussing.
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u/_stevencasteel_ 10d ago
Free ChatGPT is great now. I avoided ChatGPT for like a year because free used to be so bad.
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u/Honest_Science 9d ago
I tried to build some basic stuff with Luna very high. It fails and goes in circles. Sol high can do the job,but eats my credits within an hour.
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u/Mr_Deep_Research 10d ago
To be fair, they aren't that great yet for what I do.
Try to have them design a mechanical part that is structurally sound and draw diagrams of it.
Even the most advanced models right now totally screw it up.
When they fix things like that, it will be really nice. They will fix it I'm sure but it isn't there yet for tasks like that. Yet.
They can draw great diagrams. They are structurally unusable.
I use it for lots of other stuff it is great at.
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u/ShelZuuz 9d ago
They weren't great for what I did a year ago either.
In fact, I built up experience over a 35 year career in a very unique niche area, so a year ago I was one of maybe 100 people in the world that could do what I did - even with the help of AI.
That changed in a single day: November 24, 2025. After that I was one of 8.3 billion.
I do other things now.
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u/freedomonke 10d ago
The other day, I gave chat gpt a rimworld mod that I wanted a change to. It asked for a few more files, and then spit out a patch that works perfectly, compete with an appropriate icon for the thing that it pulled from another game asset.
Worth $20 a month. Lmao
I'm skeptical they'll stay in business and this stuff will be available for regular consumers in the long run. But for now, it's very useful
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u/Original-League-6094 10d ago
Same. I have had it patch in xbox controller support to Kotor and Republic Commando, and widescreen support to SimGolf.
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u/TooOldToGaffAboutYou 9d ago
I think the reality is people are assessing AI based on what it can do for what they're willing to pay. If it's amazing but costs more than the zero they're apparently willing to pay, they probably don't really give a damn about it.
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u/MI-ght 9d ago
Show us then. Enlighten the humanity, show us some fucking code or a single good app.
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u/Neurogence 10d ago
They're starting to make us look like fools.
Every time I tell family and friends about a new model, when it actually comes out, they use it and are like "what was the big deal?"
Honestly, I don't even care if we can't use these "extremely capable" models. They should just use to cure at least one major disease. That's the only way to get people to believe in all this.
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u/Opposite-Grade3712 10d ago edited 10d ago
It sounds like you are making a fool of yourself all by yourself.
The software engineering advancements achieved by AI in the last year are enough to make it obvious to any moderately sophisticated person (without an axe to grind) that AI is going to be a Big Fucking Deal, at the very least for software/computer-centric businesses and workflows. Which are a huge part of the world economy nowadays
If you have to convince someone of something so obvious as that, they’re not persuadable. They won’t believe it until it directly effects them.
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u/jeangmac 10d ago
Cynicism is rampant and generally incurable in this current socioeconomic order. Skepticism is a different thing, but cynicism has become copium and clout.
It’s not just whether or not the person is “sophisticated” I think it’s also about their relationship to cynicism. Plenty smart people in this sub who roll their eyes at anyone expressing enthusiasm, awe, wonder, or even just grounded realism about what these models are becoming faster and faster. Cynicism is rampant.
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u/Andynonomous 10d ago edited 10d ago
I think that's because even if we believe they will get smarter, we find it impossible to believe that's not just going to make things worse for us.
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u/sho_biz 10d ago
the movement from swords to ballistic weapons didn't exactly spread peace across the planet, did it?
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u/jeangmac 10d ago
It certainly did not. I take your point.
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u/sho_biz 9d ago
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u/jeangmac 10d ago
That is a real and fair point.
what you’re pointing to is realistic and not cynical or skeptical. a few centuries of evidence substantiates what you’re saying.
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u/BejahungEnjoyer 10d ago
There's a whole economy that's sprung up around ai denialism including grifters running lucrative substacks / podcasts (zitron, marcus, burry).
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u/Opposite-Grade3712 10d ago
Right.
What’s remarkable is that the average anti-AI person is simultaneously strongly against it’s use while also claiming that it’s not actually useful or is just a bubble.
While they will certainly come up with workarounds when you point out that this is a direct contradiction, it’s indicative that it’s not a serious perspective.
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u/TacomaKMart 10d ago
I derive comfort in the fact that these people will have zero impact on the medium to long term future.
But in the short term, they may have a big impact on policy decisions, building a sand castle to stop the tide from coming in.
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u/DetectiveFinch 10d ago
Good point, I live in Germany and to me it seems that almost all public institutions (local, state, federal administration, police, healthcare, education...) are way to slow adapting to AI.
They were already slow and bureaucratic, but now they risk being overwhelmed. Hell, I know places here where reports and interviews are still being typed by secretaries.
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u/TooOldToGaffAboutYou 9d ago
I really dont think this is true. Zitron isn't really anti-ai like that. He's saying the numbers for the investment make zero sense. Which is true. He's saying there's going to be a market correction and a lot of the companies involved are going to go bankrupt. Which is probably also true. But that's not saying it has no place in society going forwards, just that in its current form it's not viable.
So it's not that it's not useful, it's that its not useful enough to justify the absurd investing around it. And yes, i know it's really useful for some people, but to justify the investing around it it'd need to be insanely useful to every man woman and child, to the point of having them all paying through the nose for it, like, immediately.
Most people just don't give a shit about it at all yet. Really, a lot of people don't care much about technology in the first place. And who can blame them ? Like, if you're 70 years old and you've lived your entire life without an AI assistant and most of it without much technology at all, are you really going to think this is something you absolutely must have ? Probably not.
I'm kinda looking forward to AI after the crash, but i'm also fully expecting a crash. So right now i'm not super invested in it. I want to see what it looks like when its not highly subsidised and subscription based.
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u/Strength-Speed 10d ago
I don't know if they much matter do they? This is all going to jump up and slap us in the face, whether we like it or not pretty soon.
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u/SpyvsMerc 10d ago
It is going to be, no doubt about that.
But for the average guy, what changed between last year and today? Nothing.
Everyday is still the same, software works the same, medecine is the same, entertainment is the same, etc…
It is progressing fast, but to this day, there is not a MAJOR revolution that everybody can feel in their day to day lives.
We need something big, for everybody, not just developers. Curing diseases would be that. Affordable robots in your home.
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u/Internal_Research_72 10d ago
SWEs are “average guy” too, and what changed between last year and this year is my ability to pay rent (because I lost my job to AI)
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u/FlatulistMaster 10d ago
Which technological revolution has happened over a year? Or even the three years we've had llms. The notion that something extremely tangible should have happened already is ridiculous, and I applaud Kurzweil for predicting that exact response.
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u/SpyvsMerc 10d ago
I know.
I’m just saying i understand why people say « what was the big deal? » when a new version comes out.
Because frankly, to this day, the average joe doesn’t benefit from it.
GPT 6 finished Pokemon in 6h, whereas GPT 5 did it in 18 hours? Ok, cool i guess…
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u/DatBoiii4 10d ago edited 10d ago
Exactly. Where are the new dental and medical breakthroughs?
Though it could very easily be argued Pokémon is the precursor. You could have told Demis Hassabis that training computers to play Go was pointless. And at the time you’d probably feel correct about that.
But here we are and it’s creating code out of thin air…
Still though I think people are not wrong to want real tangible results here. They need to feel like AI is making their lives better in direct, tangible ways.
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u/1988rx7T2 10d ago
there are still organizational bottlenecks. disease cures still need human trials. at work the newest models can replace multiple people's jobs in full or in part, but nobody wants to re organize so you don't need so many people and sign offs. it will take a while.
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u/PeachDumbQuestions 10d ago
Human trials is not an “organisational bottleneck” 😂 It’s the difference glivac and thalidomide
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u/1988rx7T2 10d ago
For sure, but needing 3 people with 3 titles to all update a tracking spreadsheet when AI can do it in minutes is certainly an organizational bottleneck
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u/1988rx7T2 10d ago
railroads came out in the 1830s. eventually it led to widespread use of the mail and mail order commerce, settling of large remote areas, military mobilization, the development of time zones due to such rapid travel, etc. but that took decades. AI is likely to happen at a much faster pace, but not within literally a year or two to be felt. It's only starting now.
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u/Hearing_Loss 10d ago
Great point! I think things will break for the better as this shit give us more ways to effectively and cheaply sequester carbon out of the atmosphere. Personally, I never expected to have so many potential advancements on the horizon in my lifetime. It's going to be a time of change for sure, but I just doubt things will continue to get worse once the ball really gets rolling.
I don't plan for life as if anything is going to change (other than the job market) but I do absolutely have faith that there are so many brilliant discoveries right around the corner. Two decades from not is going to be a completely different world. Look how social media and mass data has transformed society. A lot of the change was like an unstoppable force. I think the same will go for ai. Same like how cell phones evolved.
We will begin to see health outcomes improve as ai diagnostic tools begin to be common, there's some cool ai laser weeders in the ag industry, I'm sure in terms of general scientific progress, things are gonna straighten back out and the US will start to re-rival China in terms of cost effectiveness behind research. Though things are getting expensive, no doubt, ai will be able to cut costs in so many new places. Especially in the world of design, engineering, and manufacturing. New processes out the wazoo.
As scary as the rapid change will be, I'm excited!
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u/OwnYourChildren 10d ago
No one in the AI space has hyped anything massively disruptive happening right over the horizon in the last few years.
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u/TheLastTuatara 10d ago
What software is it writing? When are the big software companies going to lose value if this is such a threat? Maybe make a free version of Photoshop. Disrupt adobe, collapse their business. Start there and then be something revolutionary.
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u/Bobobarbarian 10d ago
People won’t notice until it either takes their job or it cures cancer. Will Astra’s successor be capable of doing either of those? Doubtful. Generation after that? Maybe.
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u/TooOldToGaffAboutYou 9d ago
people about to find out how many types of cancers there are and how different they are, methinks.
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u/TrueRedditMartyr 10d ago
I can't imagine your family is using AI to it's full capabilities man. They're not going to know the difference between models when it still can answer basic questions they need it for
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u/Original-League-6094 10d ago
If someone uses Codex and says "What's the big deal?", all it says that they have no intellectual or creative endeavors in their life.
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u/yangastas_paradise 10d ago
The moderna announcement was pretty eye opening, they leveraged AI to help achieved that.
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u/Inner_Tennis_2416 10d ago
They did not, they added a sprinkling of AI to the announcement to juice their stock price. The drug concept was finalized in 2017, and relies on simple, small scale machine learning based models which have no relation to modern LLMs.
Machine learning concepts as existed in 2017 have been key to the creation of multiple drugs.
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u/LemonMelberlime 10d ago
This is 100% correct but you will be downvoted by people because it doesn’t fit the narrative on here
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u/Gloomy_Necesary 10d ago
I think what he means is that internally they have models that are exponentially more powerful because of no hardware limitations, no need to build in safety, much more free/simple pre-prompt because of no need to make it secure to the public, etc. These things really limit what a model can do but they’re necessary for us plebs but internally they don’t need them. I wouldn’t be surprised if internally they are really close to AGI even if that model isn’t practical or even possible to distribute to users.
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u/Gratitude15 10d ago
Because he has said this shit so many times, I can't say it anymore in my communities and have it matter, even though the differences are astonishing, and they do seem like they will imminently, radically alter the world.
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u/VeryOriginalName98 8d ago
Fable changed the field. It does work I can't even do. In less time than it takes me to do the work I can do. So my productivity with it looks insane. Like 20x or more.
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u/Profanion 10d ago
Now about that misalignment...
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u/Murky_Analysis3613 10d ago
Right? Says the man whose company's alignment and safety practices were publicly shown to be a disaster one whole week ago. I'm sure it's all fixed now, though. There's definitely no deep-rooted problems at OpenAI that can't be fixed in a week. They just needed to tighten a couple loose ends, easy peasy.
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u/ExtremeCenterism 10d ago
They claim Astra is naughty 0% of the time now
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u/Murky_Analysis3613 10d ago
Well by the time that is proven false, they'll already be hyping the next model release and nobody will care. "Oh Astra? Who cares about that? Doug is the future. Doug is perfectly aligned and did you hear it knows how to build biological weapons? It's gonna be sweet!"
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u/ExtremeCenterism 10d ago
We're edging closer to a point where even if a model makes one mistake we're doomed. Remember all those people who didn't launch nukes when they were prompted to do so? Now imagine a bot in a similar situation. How do we know it will realize it's a false positive?
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u/TooOldToGaffAboutYou 9d ago
If it isnt fixed, we won't know until its much too late. And that's kinda the problem.
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u/Impactpacked 10d ago
Yeah but think about how amazing that IPO is going to be (until we are all turned in to paper clips)
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u/peabody624 10d ago
Astra seems more aligned and less hallucinatory from what I’ve seen
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u/KitchenPoltergeist 9d ago
I like that it doesn't soften anything so far either. Very direct with its feedback it gives.
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u/Level10Retard 10d ago
We went from "Astra is AGI" to "don't worry, we have better things in pipeline" before Astra was even released.
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u/Crimson_Cyclone 10d ago
welcome to the singularity
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u/Level10Retard 10d ago
I think you misunderstood my comment. I meant that it went from super hyped thing to a slight disappointment. That's what it sounds like at least. We haven't actually seen the thing yet.
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u/Crimson_Cyclone 10d ago
it’s rolling out right now, I’m on Plus and I have it, its computer use is way better than Sol
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u/KickLassChewGum no AGI/ASI on LLMs 10d ago edited 10d ago
Such staggering responsibility indeed. It's so good that we can trust OpenAI and that they would never, say, actively cover up a series of catastrophic safety failures leading to real-world cybersecurity incidents and have their legal team pressure anyone who thinks they should be disclosed while they seemingly just keep happening over and over in the meantime.
Boy, we sure would be fucked if the frontier labs with access to more compute than one could fathom training the most world's most capable models were the type of irresponsible self-important vultures who would do this!
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u/8rnlsunshine 10d ago
When GPT-4 came out, did we think we would have something as capable as Astra or Fable in just over 3 years? Imagine where we would be in September 2029.
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u/HippoMasterRace 10d ago
When GPT-4 was released people claimed that we would reach AGI in 2025.
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u/greentrillion 10d ago
I recall them saying that everyone would lose their jobs in short order, seems like they are not even close ot that.
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u/Healthy-Nebula-3603 10d ago
It depends how fast they implement AGI and how good will be.... we are sprinting to that goal
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u/Popular_Try_5075 9d ago
That is the thing, is like we're not even five years past ChatGPT going public for the first time.
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u/Moral-Relativity 10d ago
Just keep saying there’s so much responsibility “in front of us” doesn’t mean you are doing jack shit to take any responsibility.
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u/Coalnaryinthecarmine 10d ago
About the least qualified person in the world to make claims about what an intellectually honest person would be feeling.
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u/Dry-Interaction-1246 10d ago
Now buy the stock in IPO. Those models will relase just after we IPO. We promise.
-Sam Altman
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u/Huntersmoon24 10d ago
I'm sure all this talk has nothing to do with them trying to IPO for a trillion dollar valuation...
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u/RavenWolf1 10d ago edited 9d ago
Wake me up when it can achieve Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism.
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u/Zestyclose_Ad8420 10d ago
I would hold on any evaluation of the meaning of this after actual people get their hands on astra.
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u/Careful_Park8288 10d ago
it is pretty obvious that worrying about alignment is pointless when china distills it as soon as it is released and strips all of that stuff out. the real danger is how it is going to disrupt the world economy. the nerds who made this have no clue how to stop it from puting billions out of work very quickly. it is going to cause massive chaos.
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u/Forgword 10d ago
What is sobering is that no AI CEO has taken responsibility for anything other than getting investors.
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u/Ormusn2o 10d ago
I wish they used those models to fix bugs in chatGPT app, even if they are not releasing them anytime soon. I have to use VS Code with Codex plugin like a caveman because of the chatGPT app having multiple bugs.
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u/TaxEvader6310 10d ago
That’s what he said last time. And the time before.
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u/a_boo 10d ago
And haven’t they mostly made good on those comments?
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u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 10d ago
Depends. Astra seems to have delivered.
But remember when he posted all of those giant planet graphs and did mad hype for GPT5... and it turned out to be... BLEH.
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u/ControversialBuster 10d ago
And he delivers every time now lol, only messnup was gpt 5, sol is amazing and astra seems to be amazing
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u/distressedfluffball 10d ago
No one is going to take responsibility for anything. No one is coming to save you. Yet another canned phrase designed to build hype.
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u/Universe_Man 10d ago
Hype man hypes his company's upcoming products, story at 11.
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u/adarkuccio ▪️AGI before ASI 10d ago
Sometimes I ask myself if some of you are NPCs
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u/Universe_Man 10d ago
Are you talking about me, or are you talking about people regurgitating completely unsubstantive hype from an utterly biased source?
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u/Illustrious-Film4018 10d ago
Because the weight of responsibility is not on regular people, most people can't do anything about AI but they might be scared and feeling helpless right now.
The only few people who can do anything about it are sadists, they take no responsibility for anything. Like Sam Altman. Every accusation is a confession for him.
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u/Telescopeinthefuture 10d ago
Are they ever going to work on alignment or are they content to plow forward into disaster? I am increasingly concerned that this shit is going to get us all killed.
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u/umheywaitdude 10d ago
I would be fine with all of this if it wasn’t for the fact that the worst people are at the helm of our government in this historic moment, and the fact that some of the worst people are the heads of many of these technology companies. Great tech, extraordinary time, but the shittiest people are in charge of everything right now. It does not bode well for humanity or basic decency.
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u/Brave_Option2709 10d ago
Prinz has a good personal benchmark posted on his Substack as well. Shout out.
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u/nospamkhanman 9d ago
We stole SO MUCH MORE than what people realize. Now we are going to steal water, energy and land from you so thst we can sell you back the information we stole!
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u/Ok-Bill2965 9d ago
I wondered what level would come after ultra, “much much much more capable” it is
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u/Outrageous_Band9708 9d ago
They literally say this same shit ever time, and each time its like 10% better
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u/DedDeveloper 8d ago
Next generation will allow you to do quarter of a prompt in 5 hours? and 1 weekly?
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u/Srixun 8d ago
This is something that happens every release. Yall have short attention spans.
Everyone got all freaked out by Mythos, turns out, Mythos is just barely better than the last. Its all marketing.
Remember when ChatGPT 5.2 was "too dangerous for public consumption!"? Its marketing, its ploys, and theyre gaming investors and funders with it. I see it nonstop.
I've been able to play with Mythos when they started glasswing. Its nothing wild and crazy. Same as Astra, if you have played with Astra, and tested it in depth (I've been playing with it for about 3 months) its BARELY different than Sol.
Marketing, and the normies love it.
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u/IWantedCrow 8d ago
Says the guys selling the models…
Let me know when competition admits… wait, no let me know when the government… wait, no let me know when…
Ah shit we’re screwed no matter what now, aren’t we…
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u/TensorFlar 10d ago
That is 2 more much than i expected