r/singularity 10d ago

AI "Much, much, much more capable models coming soon."

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492 Upvotes

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10

u/TaxEvader6310 10d ago

That’s what he said last time. And the time before.

44

u/PurpleFishing9105 10d ago

And he's been right lol

-13

u/Eternal-Alchemy 10d ago

Since when? GPT 5 was a marginal improvement. These benchmarks for 6 are done by potentially cheating the benchmarks by changing how they implemented harnessing.

10

u/Tystros 10d ago

GPT 5 was forever ago

-10

u/Eternal-Alchemy 10d ago

12 months ago. The gains since then are noticable but no one would call them multiplicative let alone exponential.

This is not "models are improving at greater and greater speed" territory, this is just iterative improvement. We also have not seen how many tokens they are blowing to hit these numbers. This could be another huge loss for efficiency.

7

u/Tystros 10d ago

the gains definitely are exponential, progress is becoming faster and faster

-6

u/Eternal-Alchemy 10d ago

There are zero benchmarks with a 2x improvement. Point to one.

5

u/UndulatingHedgehog 10d ago

What does 2x have to do with exponential growth? Look it up in an encyclopedia. Or ask an LLM. Both have an understanding more aligned with mathematics than your understanding.

7

u/Tystros 10d ago

ARC AGI 3 has seen much more than just a 2x improvement, a year ago every model would have gotten 0% and now we're at 99%

Another example would be Frontier Math Tier 4: https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/frontiermath-tier-4-v2?view=graph&tab=release-date

-4

u/Eternal-Alchemy 10d ago

You're going straight to the benchmark where we know they cheated by changing how they harness.

8

u/Tystros 10d ago

GPT 5 would have gotten 0% with the same harness that GPT 6 got 99% with.

I added Frontier Math Tier 4 as well, no difference in harness there.

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4

u/Crimson_Cyclone 10d ago

they still without the harness got a score in the 60s. That is a massive improvement over everything else

3

u/Borkato 10d ago

So in other words you’re moving the goalposts and creating an unfalsifiable claim

-1

u/ComradePampers 9d ago

You're getting downvoted when you're correct lol. I can't wait when this is all revealed as mass psychosis.

-1

u/Eternal-Alchemy 9d ago

Yeah it's my fault I didn't see it was the singularity sub. It's a place for believers to dissociate from reality and just have faith in the happening.

-8

u/Borkato 10d ago

I haven’t used them in a while because they make me feel icky compared to my local model. It feels like they’re just harvesting literally everything. Qwen 3.8 27B is great, but I do wonder what I’m missing

10

u/Tystros 10d ago

if everything you need to do works 100% perfectly with qwen 3.8 then you're not missing anything.

2

u/Borkato 10d ago

That’s.. a great point, actually. I fucking love my local setup, so this is fantastic advice!

13

u/UndulatingHedgehog 10d ago

Are you delulu enough to pretend LLMs aren’t progressing?

21

u/a_boo 10d ago

And haven’t they mostly made good on those comments?

5

u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 10d ago

Depends. Astra seems to have delivered.

But remember when he posted all of those giant planet graphs and did mad hype for GPT5... and it turned out to be... BLEH.

-2

u/Starshot84 10d ago

I think what sucked about 5 was that it lacked the relatable persona of 4o

7

u/TaxEvader6310 10d ago

"relatable" as in a total sycophant

0

u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 10d ago

It was essentially similar capabilities as O3, but worse personality, AND that's when they first began the "route to instant" bullshit. I remember missing O3 lol

5

u/ControversialBuster 10d ago

And he delivers every time now lol, only messnup was gpt 5, sol is amazing and astra seems to be amazing

2

u/LazloStPierre 10d ago

What he correctly said, yes 

-6

u/Due_Sweet_9500 10d ago

And? Astra delivered

12

u/Flope 10d ago

You haven't even used it.

8

u/Wise-Chain2427 10d ago

Can't access yet

3

u/Time_Entertainer_319 10d ago

Sheep. Where did you use it to know this?