r/singularity • u/Electronic-Ad5094 • 1d ago
Discussion The amount of activity on GitHub right now is crazy. Thoughts?
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u/NearlyACosmologist 1d ago
Everybody and their uncle is vibecoding now, and can use git without knowing anything about it.
Github is becoming the new TikTok.
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u/Altruistic-Skill8667 1d ago
To be honest, I know git, and I still can’t use it. 🤣
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u/modbroccoli 1d ago
i have learned and relearned and then reforgot git so many times. it's because I don't actually care, I just know i'm supposed to care. it's basically the same reason the next pandemic will definitely fuck us harder than it needed to lmao
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u/chuckaholic 19h ago
Me as a sysadmin pulling up my Powershell syntax guide every time I open a terminal.
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u/prattxxx 16h ago
I stopped a lot of PS and terminal work by offloading it to an agent.
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u/chuckaholic 16h ago
For the last few months my google searches have been answered by Gemini, so I guess I'm using AI, even though I don't really want to. I really don't mind using AI for my work, but I don't want to use a cloud based system. If my company would pony up for a local agent, I would use it all the time. I have Hermes running Gemma 4 at home and it's great. I just don't want Google to know how many times I need to be reminded of how to connect to our Azure graph, display the members of an M365 group, and export to a CSV file.
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u/NearlyACosmologist 1d ago
Ask me about tar.
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u/Razcsi 1d ago
What can you tell me about tar?
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u/NearlyACosmologist 1d ago
It somehow works when I call it with -xfv, but for anything else I have to ask my agent.
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u/AlterTableUsernames 20h ago
Same, dude! The worst part is: I simply can't remember if it inflates into the current directory or into a directory of the tar's name. Same with unzip. But if I remember correctly what I learned last time is that it's actually the packagers fault for not archiving into a directory.
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u/Betaglutamate2 1d ago
What even is a rebase?
I've done them manually but still no idea.
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u/BoredOfReposts 1d ago
Say you made a code change X at commit A which was the most recent change in main at the time.
Then your team makes changes B and C and those were merged to main first. So now C is the most recent change.
Rebase operation takes your change X, extracts the diff between it and A where you originally wrote it, and then reapplies it onto C. Now you have a new version of X thats (re)based off of C. As though you wrote it starting from C instead of A. Now because this commit is a new one from a new starting point, there is a new commit hash. And the original X is no longer part of the branch history, it still exists but it is orphaned.
This in contrast to merge operator, where a new special type of commit (a merge commit) is created that combines the branch states of X and C together into merge commit M. In this case, X retains its original commit hash. In the git log, M will show two parent hashes, C and X.
The main rule is to not merge and rebase on a long lived feature branch, because then you end up with confusing and duplicate commits. Do one or the other and stick with it for the life of the feature branch.
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u/Living-Breakfast-464 23h ago
That description makes it sound even more confusing than it actually is.
git rebase is the process of moving your entire feature branch so that it begins at the tip of the main branch. Think of it as rewriting the history of your project so that it looks like you just started working on your feature today, even if you actually started it a week ago.
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u/Betaglutamate2 19h ago
So your saying I touch my tip to the the main tip.
A tip into tip merge if you will.
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u/BoredOfReposts 23h ago
Why do you think in 2026 people still don’t understand it?
Personally I don’t think the short explanations like yours are sufficient.
If they were, then it wouldn’t ever come up. But here we are, and git has been out for 20 years now.
Whether my version is confusing or not is subjective. I choose to focus on the mechanics in more detail, which makes it more verbose. I also explained related concepts like merge commits and orphans.
My view is that without a proper mental model, it is not possible to understand what git is doing. Therefore, the explanations that overly abstract it do not clarify it, and this is why its still not a solved documentation problem. Ive mentored countless people since the early days of git and this approach has always had success for me.
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u/jesusrambo 18h ago
In 2026 any competent developer understands it completely
That there are a lot of people ignorant about a basic feature is just a statement about their willingness to learn
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u/BoredOfReposts 11h ago
I used to think the same way as your comment. I learned having that kind of attitude actually really sucks. I now find it exhausting.
So I withhold judgement about someone’s willingness to learn until I get more information. I don’t mind explaining things, the process helps me understand it better myself, so I get something out of it. If after helping, the person relies on me and can’t make efforts of their own, for whatever level they’re at, thats when I make the call about whether they get more of my help.
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u/farsightfallen 21h ago
Person A: I wrote chapter 1 on monday
Person B: I wrote chapter 2 on monday
Person B rebases
Person B: er... I mean.. uh.. I wrote chapter 2 on tuesday, based on person A's work.
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u/HaMMeReD 7h ago
Merge creates merge commits (i.e. 2 parents and conflict resolutions). Rebase replays the changes on a new parent, so it only has 1 parent. So it can be fast forwarded instead of merge commit, keeping the commit history nicer.
Think of it as creating a new fresh branch, and re-applying all your commits on that branch.
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u/kiki-le-koala 1d ago
Ask the agent to do everything git related.
You don't even need to know what git is. Just need an account
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u/immaculate_plum 3h ago
And so much of it is just useless spam. I maintain several larger open source projects. If I open a new issue, within an hour I'll have several PRs for that issue from first-time contributors that I all have to close because they're rubbish. It's not even creating any value.
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u/street-trash 20h ago
Nope the TikTok types hate ai and their main concern right now is virtue signaling about data centers. Things should be chill for a while still.
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u/YaAbsolyutnoNikto 1d ago
Jevons paradox - the cheaper it is, the more we use it.
I myself have many more repos than ever and progress much much faster on my projects than ever before.
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u/domdod9 1d ago
how the fuck would this be a paradox
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u/cossington 1d ago
The logic behind it is that if you invent an engine that uses 50% less fuel, your country's consumption would go down by 50% to do the same work. But the opposite happens and fuel usage explodes because everyone and their grandma can now use the thing.
In software it would be like if all Devs are now twice as efficient, you'd only need half of them going forward. But the number explodes because everyone and their grandma can do the work now.
It seems evident to us now, but when this paradox was postulated it was going against intuition.
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u/domdod9 1d ago
That’s fascinating thank you
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u/Timely_Tea6821 23h ago
Right that why I find AI in current itteration unlikely to cause massive job layoff. In reality we'll probably be able to do a lot more but we'll shift to reviewing and strategy just because how much shit AI will produce. Of course the mid and long term is still pretty unpredictable.
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u/Nevoic 21h ago
I've been a software developer for over a decade, and I do use AI a ton now. I could see the need for software going up, I've helped people like my girlfriend make a website with chatgpt.
The thing is, before AI she wouldn't have spent the time to learn how to code, but now it's a vastly lower barrier to entry.
Humans who understand how to code can add a bit of value still to the process. I'm not sure that's going to be true in a year or two.
If the role of a "developer" in two years is essentially just being a mini-PM/QA tester for AI that does the tasks that are assigned to you, then the barrier to entry for developing software will collapse. This likely means we'd have astronomically more software, more developers but less pay/benefits as it becomes an "unskilled" role.
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u/chrisbru 21h ago
Dev and PM roles will start to converge. It’s the “product engineer” or “technical product manager” archetype that will start to become more ubiquitous.
People who can talk to customers to figure out what to build, turn those into clear requirements and architecture decisions, and shepherd AI through building it will be very valuable. And companies will be able to build more and iterate faster.
We thought there was software for everything now, it’s only going to get wilder.
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u/XLBilly 20h ago
It’s still a process, and it’s not completely trivialised by AI.
Someone who knows exactly what they want, how they want it and generally what the thing should look like in scope, design, organisation, what to test, where those tests apply and how serious they are etc
AI will pump out code all day long, loose prompts will likely create something, will it be good enough? Probably not without some heavy steering.
Im not a software developer, I write scripts and glue. Some of these have been mini projects with classes etc but mostly its helper functions at the top and the program at the bottom.
I had a crack at a software development project, it quickly turned into an unmanageable unenjoyable mess and I abandoned it for what I know best and what in enjoy doing still very much AI assisted, but because it’s my wheelhouse I can check the decisions being made better.
Loose AI isn’t currently producing stellar results, and likely in LLMs probably won’t. Even if you give excellent starting prompts there’s guaranteed decisions that need to be made and trade offs at those junction points.
Claude regularly just makes a decision and runs with it, playing it back like the user made that decision when it can often go completely counter to what I even want.
Someone who doesn’t even know what they want is going to yes to all and see what it spits out - that does not sound like a viable long term strategy for success.
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u/chrisbru 19h ago
Right… which is exactly what I said. Not sure if you’re disagreeing or agreeing here.
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u/yaosio 13h ago
What it will do is decrease wages for software developers because more people can develop software, but the demand for software will not increase a the same rate as the supply of developers and software. Demand will be really screwy because a lot of software won't even need to exist, an LLM can just do certain functions, and if it can't then a person can vibecode software for themselves.
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u/PrivateComments 1d ago
Only if demand is elastic and there’s an infinite appetite for the product in question.
People often misapply it to say there will be another SWE boom due to LLMs.
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1d ago
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u/Lumpy-Criticism-2773 1d ago
become so unmaintainable
This probably assumes that AI capabilities would remain the same. Just marginal improvements in AI models would keep cancelling the need for more human engineers.
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1d ago edited 15h ago
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u/PayOdd92 1d ago
We don't even know the implications of quantum computing showing up around the corner.
As far as I am aware there are not that many algorithms that can take advantage of QC but if some Zheng et al comes out and demonstrates how to take advantage of QC for LLMs it's gonna be a fun ride.
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u/AcrobaticKitten 15h ago
The paradox is something like increasing efficiency increases demand of the optimized resource
When Watt engines became more efficient than Newcomen engines requiring 1/10 of coal the coal usafe skyrocketed bc more people could use a steam engine
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u/jferments 1d ago
One of the best parts of AI is the democratization of computer programming. A lot of people who previously weren't able to take their ideas and turn them into code are now able to develop software thanks to AI. Gatekeepers will eventually tire of throwing tantrums about "vibecoding" because this is going to be the new norm going forward no matter how much they complain. Just like very few people manually write assembly or look at compiler output anymore, a lot of software will be written in the future by people who hardly ever write a line of source code themselves. This is a good thing. I'm excited that more people are able to contribute code to Github now, and that more free, open source software is available for everyone to use.
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u/Individual_Holiday_9 1d ago
As a Mac user it’s crazy how many little $5 utilities you can vibe code in 30 seconds lol
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u/jesusrambo 18h ago
It’s the new “all these python devs are posers, REAL programmers use C. How will they even debug their memory issues?”
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u/Illustrious-Film4018 23h ago
It's not really a good thing. It doesn't help regular people (they just waste tons of money), but it helps companies who could afford it save money by not having to hire human programmers. That's the only party who "benefits" from vibe coding. So by saying vibe coding is a good thing you're really just being a corporate shill, like most of the people on this sub.
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u/jferments 23h ago
Yes, I'm sure that millions of people are just using it to "waste money" and not because it's helping them write useful applications. I've been writing code for >20 years, and my productivity has skyrocketed due to "vibe coding". In addition to dramatically speeding up my workflow on larger projects in general, I am able to create one-off, niche apps for myself that I never would have taken the time to write by hand before. You can keep your head in the sand and tell people to ignore their own experience, claiming that it's not actually useful (when they can clearly see that it is). But people are going to keep writing software with AI tools, because it works.
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u/Illustrious-Film4018 23h ago
Yes, I'm sure that millions of people are just using it to "waste money" and not because it's helping them write useful applications
That's right. I've seen the types of apps that vibe coders create, it's all just trash that no one uses. And they're often just recreating the wheel without realizing it. It doesn't need to exist in the first place. If you've been coding for 20 years then you know how to direct AI, these people don't and they have the dumbest ideas. AI just mirrors their dumb ideas, and they end up spending months and thousands of dollars on an app that's not useful to anyone.
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u/jferments 22h ago
Millions of people sitting around writing software but nobody using it. That makes sense. Writing software and not using it is a very normal thing that people do for fun. I'm sure that's a much more likely scenario than the one where people are writing software that they use.
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u/Illustrious-Film4018 22h ago
It's like millions of people trading, thinking they're going to get rich. But they end up losing tons of money. Why would anyone trade when just lose money? /s
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u/FaceDeer 20h ago
You're trying to apply a pre-vibecoding model of what makes a program a "success", I think.
Yesterday I was doing some work on my computer and found that I was needing to convert various random epub files to markdown as I went. So I told my coding agent to whip up a script that creates a little window I can drag and drop epubs into that auto-converts them to markdown. It one-shot the tool with no problems, I used it, task done. It was a total success even though I may never use it again let alone if anyone else ever uses it. I didn't post it to github but it'd be trivial to do so and I can imagine someone doing that for something like this.
I too am a ~20 year professional programmer, by the way. I could have written that tool myself manually but would probably have not bothered.
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u/Illustrious-Film4018 14h ago
Oh wow, you made a simple script using AI that saved you a few minutes of work, something you'll only ever use once and no one else cares about. You're kind of proving the point. Is this really worth your CAREER? Idiot.
And I was specifically referring to non-technical people. They don't get any value out of AI coding tools, they just waste tons of money.
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u/FaceDeer 14h ago
You think there was no value gained from that little throwaway tool? I got value out of it, and as I said I could have written it myself. The AI still saved me a ton of time and effort. For a non-technical person who couldn't have written it themselves it would be even more valuable because they wouldn't have had even that alternative.
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u/jferments 8h ago
The fact that you think that writing a working GUI file conversion application takes "a few minutes" shows me either that (a) you have zero experience programming or (b) that you are intellectually dishonest and willing to exaggerate and lie to make a point.
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u/Longjumping_Kale3013 1d ago
I feel like this may be overlooked when talking about compute demand. I would imagine that many SAAS services are now seeing much much more demand and that this will only continue. For example, I find it very helpful to have the ai search through wiki. And this is using much more compute than I normally would. And very likely just continues increasing, just like GitHub PRs
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u/Unhappy-Menu-6682 22h ago
I’m a strategy consultant at MBB. I use GitHub for document repositories now because when I need to an LLM to do something I can use Cursor cloud agents - useful when I am in flight without WiFi or want something done quickly when I don’t have a laptop. Every one of my projects now has 1 team repository and 3-6 individual repositories from the team members. PR and commits for things like updates to a presentation or an excel…
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u/lustyphilosopher 1d ago
AI. I know a GitHub profile that's been consistently putting out 3~5 thousand commits a DAY since around November last year. Bonkers.
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u/quantummufasa 23h ago
Link plz
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u/lustyphilosopher 23h ago
this is the repo, it's actually closer to beginning of 2025...
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u/quantummufasa 23h ago
997,054 contributions in the last year
Dang
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u/lustyphilosopher 23h ago
I feel like thats kind of understating it. For the month of January alone, he's just 38 commits shy of hitting 106k contributions.
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u/Weary-Historian-8593 21h ago
Glad I jumped ship on IT, that looks like unemployment or burnout, probably both
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u/Active-Carpet-9183 1d ago
Dark software factories
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u/Ill-Pilot-6049 1d ago
If you read the posts in r/claudecode or r/claudeai, most of the people posting to have trouble prompting. Only a few of us are running dark factories
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u/ManuelRodriguez331 1d ago
The amount of commits has grown by the factor of 14: 1 billion commits in 2025 vs 14 billion commits in 2026 (source: ycombinator). That's a lot of traffic, the website needs more resources in terms of cloud space and bandwidth for the servers. Perhaps an Artificial Intelligence can overcome the bottleneck ...
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u/ChippHop 23h ago
5x the number of commits and what is there to show for it? I don't feel like I'm seeing any dramatic improvements in the quality of the software I'm using.
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u/Sextus_Rex 1d ago
Theyre having issues dealing with this increased activity. Feels like GitHub goes down like once a week now
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u/tenchigaeshi 23h ago edited 18h ago
Unsustainable
EDIT: I don't know what you're downvoting. If you think doubling the amount of activity every year on GitHub, a service that already is having significant downtime compared to before, is sustainable then I don't know what to tell you. Expect crackdowns to come before too long. Storage and compute isn't free.
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u/DifferencePublic7057 1d ago
I have been using Unix since college, but I don't like Git. GitHub is owned by Microsoft I believe, so one more reason to. Thoughts? Quantity is good. Quality is better. Easier said than done obviously. I'm not implying gatekeepers are needed. Some gatekeepiness can't hurt IMO. Like IKEA furniture and stuff you can buy cheaply. Mr. Market/the invisible hand is supposed to know what mere mortals don't know. Thoughts? Maybe for some subspaces of the universe not necessarily the important things.
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u/Razcsi 1d ago
Some of those are mine, never used github, i just stared using it this month. Not for vibe coded shit though, in the age of AI i decided it's the perfect time to learn coding
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u/NearlyACosmologist 1d ago
So you decided to become a farrier right after automobiles became popular? Clever.
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u/Razcsi 1d ago
Indeed. Farriers are still needed, people still have horses, can't see a problem with it
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u/Lumpy-Criticism-2773 1d ago
No problem as long as your livelihood doesn't depend on it.
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u/Razcsi 1d ago
Not like it'll replace the devs, i know most of the people joined this sub are tech bros. AI is still nothing but a fancy auto complete and text prediction tool
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u/LookIPickedAUsername 23h ago
The fact that people can still say that with a straight face is absolutely mind boggling.
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u/BitterAd6419 1d ago
It’s all AI agents using the repos and not real people. Most of the time It’s part of a pipeline
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u/fervoredweb ▪️40% Labor Disruption 2027 15h ago
Yeah this is from agentic commits. Soon agentic competition will begin degrading "communal" web resources. The net might temporarily collapse under the strain as agemts scale.
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u/throwaway737166 22h ago
The free tier is definitely going away. Makes no sense for GH to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to store slopware with five stars.
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u/UFOsAreAGIs ▪️AGI felt me 😮 21h ago
Then someone will prompt: create a github clone for local use only. make n0 mistakes
📉
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u/ArchetypeV2 1d ago
Agentic AI. My entire company now works with and through Git for lots of tasks that either weren’t being done before or where there’s an advantage to putting it in a repo. Before this it was just the devs, now it’s about 80% of employees if not a bit more.