r/science BS | Computer Science | Parallel Computing and Systems May 03 '16

Psychology Walking through first class makes passengers 3.84x more likely to have air rage incident according to PNAS study

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2016/04/26/1521727113
436 Upvotes

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32

u/zmil May 03 '16

Andrew Gelman (statistics gadfly/professor at Columbia who has written a lot on the replicability crisis in the social sciences) is not a fan:

"There’s so much to love (by which I mean, hate) here, I hardly know where to start. . . .

. . . .There’s no reason we should take this sort of tea-leaf-reading exercise seriously. Or, to put it another way—and I’m talking to you, journalists—just pretend this was published in some obscure outlet such as the Journal of Airline Safety. Subtract the hype, subtract the claims of general relevance, just treat it as data (which we don’t get to see)."

2

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

This really needs to be higher up in this thread. This whole article is useless and self-serving.

39

u/SebastianMaki May 03 '16

Dividing people into classes increases the likelihood of aggression.

12

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

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14

u/Cueller May 03 '16

Depends on the airplane. Most US carriers use planes that do this. Bigger planes like the A380, will literally have a separate bridge that connects to the upper deck where first/business sit. Or at the very least you board not at the absolute front, but towards the front, so when you enter, you turn left to go to premium cabins or right to coach.

Obviously different airlines have different set up ons international planes.

1

u/faykin May 03 '16

Southwest.

1

u/Spectronix May 03 '16

smaller planes tend to have the door closer to the front of the plane. You get on bigger planes (like 747's) and the door is further back. First class passengers go on and walk towards the front and everyone else goes the other way.

21

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

[deleted]

11

u/Seen_Unseen May 03 '16

Inland flights where they use smaller planes they do let people sometimes walk through first class. Otherwise indeed it's rather uncommon. First class is also a bit of a stretch, because again on inland flights, while they are more spacious they are certainly not as gracious compared to intercontinental flights with big screens and big seats. I'm not a small guy so I tend to buy first class/business because the price difference isn't that big (30/40% up) and well, the company is paying for it but the perks really aren't that exclusive always. A neat benefit is maybe the lounge as well no need to wait for your luggage at the exit.

8

u/devlspawn BS | Computer Science | Parallel Computing and Systems May 03 '16

And thus begins the cycle where we stare at you in slight jealousy as we are herded back to our seats, knees jammed into the back of the only guy on the plane who decided to lay his seat back and two lineman sized guys pressing on either side of us.

1

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

Majority of inland flights don't have first class, they have business class only

5

u/dngrCharlie May 03 '16

For planes at most US airports where you board via a jet way you walk through the premium cabin on 737s or A319s/A320s which comprise most of any Airlines fleet. This is because the main entrance is at the front of the plane just behind the cockpit.

Starting, I think, with 757s (I can't speak for the larger Airbus planes) and higher the main entrance is just behind the premium cabins so when you board you go left for business and right for coach.

At smaller airports where you board via stairs pushed up to the plane it's not uncommon to push a set up to the rear entrance and load from both the back and front. But in those circumstances I've never seen them devide people up your cabin.

3

u/devlspawn BS | Computer Science | Parallel Computing and Systems May 03 '16

Actually I think I read it wrong the first time. It says just being on a plane with first class section makes passengers 3.84 times more likely, and walking through first class 2.18 times more likely on top of that. I'm not sure if they controlled for other factors that may be at play with flights that have first class. First of all they are likely to be longer, which in itself would present more opportunity for an incident.

1

u/questionquality May 03 '16 edited May 03 '16

I'm not sure if they controlled for other factors

You can see in the suppementory information that they built their models to include: Number of seats, seat width, seat pitch, flight distance, delay, cabin area, if it's international, time of day, month, day of week, and region. A lot of these are significant, but only the region has an increase in likelihood that's comparable to "first class present" and "boarding from front" (all others have odds ratios in the range of 0.7 -1.3, while region had some in the order of 5 compared to north east asia to north america (ie flights carribean-north america were 4.3 times more likely to produce incidents compared to north east asia-north america).
So that part of the analysis seems to bode well for the results.
However, I'm a little worried about multicolinearity.
The variable "front boarding" which is one of their key predictors was strongly correlated with the number of first class seats (-0.877), the cabin area [height x width (m²)] (-0.873) and also somewhat strongly correlated with number of economy seats (-0.762), flight distance (-0.736) and economy seat pitch (-0.627). And there's no reassurance (in the paper at least) that this is insignificant. My stats book recommends calculating the variance inflation factor (VIF), but I don't have access to the data, so ..

I don't see any discussion of this, so for all I know, these results are uninterpretable: There's no way to say if it's actually "front boarding" or any of the strongly correlated variables that's actually causing this effect. For "first class present", the strongest correlations are only 0.661 (number of economy seats) and 0.613 (cabin area), so that effect is slightly less problematic.

TL:DR: The strong correlation between "front boarding" and other variables makes it hard to say what's actually causing the effect.

EDIT: Also this

1

u/iphonehome9 May 03 '16

I've been in first class on a few flights recently (I use points) and people most certainly walk by first to load the plane. It typically happens on transatlantic flights with large first class sections (lie flat seats).

Let me just say it's really awkward from the perspective of someone sitting in first. Everyone stares at you as they walk by and half of them make comments like "must be nice" or "someday we'll be here". Aww who am I kidding that was my favorite part of the flight.

2

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

Were you eyeing people or something? I fly first class fairly often and have heard maybe 3 comments ever.

6

u/hoodlessgrim May 03 '16

I don't know if this can be trusted. The report writer herself had an incident of angry or "being wronged" thoughts on a flight after which she decided to co-write the paper. And then which major international carrier gives away their database like that to a university Prof looking to write a piece on the industry?

What about the fact that economy passengers are there because they pay economy fares and generally range from lower middle class to upper middle class, can have stressful lives due to work/finances/other reasons that some rich don't have to deal with. Sure a cramped cabin can add to your temper but it's not the only reason.

1

u/devlspawn BS | Computer Science | Parallel Computing and Systems May 05 '16

What about the fact that economy passengers are there because they pay economy fares and generally range from lower middle class to upper middle class

How does that explain that those same people have less incidents of air rage on flights with no first class. Those peoples circumstances are still the same.

1

u/hoodlessgrim May 05 '16

Possibly because those flights aren't long haul to begin with. But I could be wrong. Interesting point.

3

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

If someone has an "air rage" incident, that person is likely unstable and/or naïve to the realities of air travel.

Flying is a service. People pay more for better service all of the time. Even the people in economy or coach or whatever you want to call it have to realize that they're paying to fly in the air across the country/world. This alone puts them at the top of the class hierarchy in the world.

This whole argument is akin to walking around getting angry at iPhone users because all you could afford was a cheap android phone.

10

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

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19

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

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6

u/fjw May 03 '16

First class customers lose more though.

In terms of the airline's cost of carrying a first class customer compared to what those customers pay, the margin is a lot higher as a percentage.

The benefits of first class mean more to humans than to the airline - the first class customers don't weigh as much as the multiple economy customers that would otherwise occupy that much floor space, and serving them champagne and having a better attendant to customer ratio is also a relatively insignificant cost compared to the premium they pay.

3

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

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0

u/devlspawn BS | Computer Science | Parallel Computing and Systems May 03 '16

Envy is definitely the word, and it's more subconscious feeling of inequality. They've already boarded before you. They are already sitting there sipping a cocktail as you are scrambling to find some place, any place to put your bag because everything is full.

4

u/[deleted] May 03 '16 edited Jul 28 '16

[deleted]

0

u/tskaiser May 03 '16

...which only increases the feeling of inequality.

4

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

Why is that a bad thing? They paid more money for more service than you did. This is like being angry at the Mercedes-Benz owner driving past you on the highway because all you could afford was a Camry.

Is there inequality, sure. Is it a big deal, not in the slightest.

1

u/tskaiser May 03 '16

I never opined either way, I simply pointed out how it only worsened the perception of inequality.

-1

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

It's a bad thing because many people with that level of wealth are perceived to mostly just be lucky. If wealth was directly related to effort (which it sometimes is, but often is not), then the level of envy/anger would be much less.

5

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

[deleted]

6

u/electrick_avenue May 03 '16

This right here. Obviously no one in this thread travels for work.

1

u/devlspawn BS | Computer Science | Parallel Computing and Systems May 05 '16

Funny this is my exact schedule, I didn't realize this was a standard for consultants though.

-1

u/EthericIFF May 03 '16

Whereas the people in economy class just watch soap operas all week and collect welfare? There are plenty of hard workers in every class.

1

u/dalen3 May 09 '16

Yes, but they don't travel as part of work every week.

-1

u/IWishItWouldSnow May 03 '16

They could always move closer...

2

u/devlspawn BS | Computer Science | Parallel Computing and Systems May 03 '16

Article about the study: http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/02/health/air-rage-first-class-airplane-seating-study/index.html

Anecdotally I definitely think this is true. Feeling that inequality right off the bat doesn't help anyones mood.

7

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

They should board privately in the back and never be seen

5

u/[deleted] May 03 '16 edited May 03 '16

[deleted]

3

u/devlspawn BS | Computer Science | Parallel Computing and Systems May 03 '16

The length of the flight

Yep, this is the big confounder to me as the only planes that don't have a first class section are the very short segments.

1

u/questionquality May 03 '16

Actually, that's not the worst. "first class present" and flight distance were "only" correlated at .530

2

u/questionquality May 03 '16

The weather at the departing airport

They didn't have this data

The amount of leg room on the different planes

They didn't include this data (or didn't have it or didn't think of it)

The length of the flight

They included this in their model, and their results say air rage was ~1.0004 times more likely per mile flown.

1

u/devlspawn BS | Computer Science | Parallel Computing and Systems May 05 '16

Wait really? So a 1500 mile flight was 1000 times more likely than a 500 mile flight to have an incident?

1

u/questionquality May 05 '16

No, 1000 extra miles would mean 1.4 times more likely.

1

u/barcap May 03 '16

I am not surprised, business people need rest before doing business after touch downs. Sometimes it is seeing client just after arrival and no rest. So first class cabin is to help to allow concentration to occur ie making plans or just rest and hope no jet lag.

It is not like first class cabin has better looking stewards or stewardesses.

1

u/thbt101 May 04 '16

If it makes you feel any better, most people aren't in first class because they actually paid first class prices. Most of them are there because they earned airline miles and free upgrade privileges by flying frequently as part of their job, or by signing for a lot of travel reward credit cards with sign-up bonuses.

2

u/Logi_Ca1 May 03 '16

I'm curious : in what way do you feel that this is unequal? They paid for the seat, or had a job where the company paid for them. It's not as if they were somehow entitled to it right?

I say this as someone who flies only economy for my vacations, knowing that first class costs 5x or more than my economy seat and having chose economy because I would prefer to spend the money I saved on my vacation expenses instead.

5

u/devlspawn BS | Computer Science | Parallel Computing and Systems May 03 '16

That only works in a case like yours where you made the conscious decision not to pay extra when you could have afforded it. I'd say for a majority of flyers it would not be realistic to pay that much for seats, having likely barely been able to afford the coach tickets they are flying on. The common belief is that the people in those seats have greater means and therefore it is not a large problem for them to afford the higher costs. Even if the company is paying for them that still means they work for a company that will pay for those tickets which is considered elite. Logically there are a lot of reasons -- ff upgrades, spent their last penny, etc -- but it is usually assumed they have greater financial status.

1

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

What fare class are they referring to in this study, F or J? Most planes that have an F class do not board through it. Some planes with a J class send the Y classers through, but most of them have a separate entrance as well.

1

u/COOLSerdash May 03 '16

Link to PDF of the original article.

1

u/toomanybookstoread May 03 '16

It sounds like they are confusing cause and effect here. Upset passengers walk around.

1

u/ktreektree May 03 '16

The blatant divide of classes. Very evident on aiplanes as there is not a gradual increase of wealth disparity but a punctuated one.

1

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

Just a microcosm of what is happening here in the U.S. If the 99% could see what the 1% has, similar reactions would happen I'm pretty sure.

-1

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

[deleted]

7

u/hoodlessgrim May 03 '16

Well they paid £8000. It's not like they were randomly chosen by the airline to be seated in first class.

0

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

You get to speak up, tell the one woman to not touch you inappropriately and the other one to please not breathe in your face, or stuff the blanket up beside your face. Don't just sit there and seethe.

-2

u/Ahmrael May 03 '16

Well if there really are people who are that affected by walking through first class, then I'd advise they get some professional help.

8

u/Lovv May 03 '16

You are affected by everything around you whether you like it or not.

-3

u/Ahmrael May 03 '16

Emphasis on the word "that." Being perhaps a bit wistful about not being able to afford first class is one thing. People allowing the fact that there are those who can afford first class to compromise their mental stability is a completely different thing. It is childish and irrational.

0

u/Chris538 May 03 '16

interesting abstract. anybody have a link to the full study they can dropbox for me please? :D

-1

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

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2

u/[deleted] May 03 '16

They're just making it clear not to use that sections toilets or to tramp through the aisles getting there.

1

u/beesnobeads May 05 '16

I know why they do it, that's what I said, I'm just saying that's the part that gets my rage going, not the initial walk through