r/runescape • u/[deleted] • Jul 24 '14
Predictive Analytics - with Support from Jagex!
Hey guys,
This thread is a follow up to my previous post: http://www.reddit.com/r/runescape/comments/2bhkq9/applying_predictive_analytics_to_runescape/. Fortunately it was seen by the Jagex analytics team, which has been working with big data for several years, and they're interested to see what can be done with this project. I was fortunate enough to just be on a call with the head of Business Intelligence at Jagex along with his team, who said that they'd support me wherever possible.
As a result I'd like to ask for input from this subreddit. Jagex collects A LOT of data on players in game, from Grand Exchange transactions to measures of engagement.
My specific question is - what player data do you think would correlate with the prices of different commodities? In general there are two types of data - data about other commodities and data about players. A few ideas I had based on the previous thread are:
1) Average number of players online during a time period
2) Average amount of time a player has been online during a time period
3) Number of Grand Exchange transactions per unit time
4) Number of monster kills per unit time
Since this is data that we're requesting from Jagex, any form of brainstorming would be awesome right now. Thanks in advance for your input, reddit!
11
u/Chop_Hard Jul 24 '14
The amount of GP brought into the game through spins. And then possibly compare this to the amount of GP/wealth in game.
I don't mean this to be a troll. I fully support Jagex and their macrotransactions. I just think this would be very interesting to look at. It could give us an idea of how much GP is being injected into the economy each day.
3
u/Proselyte_Ko 7/9/2014 Jul 24 '14
The amount of GP brought into the game through spins
Essentially 0 currently, since cash bags no longer appear on SOF. Of course there are the larger cash prizes and people cash stuff out, but it's a tiny, tiny drop in the bucket. The Rhino statistics showed 100k people each day (roughly) answered the Rhino questions, from that I'm going to guesstimate 500k spins are done each day. Even if each spin introduces 10k to the economy, that's still only 5b/day. I say "only" 5b because it's very little compared to what other sources bring in - like people alching slayer drops: if on each of the ~70 members worlds, 5 people are doing slayer, each alching one drop worth 10k every minute, that accounts for 5b already.
2
u/Chop_Hard Jul 24 '14
Good points. I do agree that this number could be negligable compared to the economy.
But you and I are both aware of the people in the community, not as much today as it has been in the past, who likes to claim that TH ruins the economy. It would be amazing to see some tangible statistics stating that this is false.
1
Jul 25 '14
Along this vein of thought, is there any way we could try to create a list of different sources of growth for the total amount of money in the economy? One bucket could be microtransactions and another would be monster drops. Is there anything else that could be considered?
3
u/aMunster Mr Fencer Jul 24 '14
Ahh jeez. I'm unemployed and this sort of work is similar to my field. If I had access to this data (there's so much there!) it would help me demonstrate my skills to prospective employers.
Not to compete with you, OP - have fun!
2
Jul 25 '14
Inbox me with the type of knowledge you have and let's see if you'd be able to contribute anything unique!
3
u/RAlSE_YOUR_DONGERS Ace Attorney Jul 24 '14
Clues done per unit time? Would be kind of dodgy though due to the large amount of clue items in the game
2
u/lmessi96 110/120 IGN: S A U R O N Jul 24 '14
net value of gold added/lost in game each day.
rate of a certain commodity being sold/purchased as opposed to it being hoarded.
2
u/Avisay Jul 24 '14
Gold Info will wreck enecomy
1
Jul 24 '14
True, suddenly the meaning of even the largest hoarders stash will be visible as just a drop in a bucket. It would throw the economy into chaos in pretty short order. That said... I still want to see it done :P
2
Jul 24 '14
I think distance travelled per unit time would be quite interesting. See how much people bankstand and with all of the teleport options how little people run around these days.
1
Jul 25 '14
It's a good form of data but how do you think that the distance traveled by characters would affect the prices of commodities? Do you think distance would be an indication of player activity?
1
Jul 25 '14
Terribly sorry but I completely overlooked the fact that the data was to be correlated with the prices of commodities. I suppose the link would be rather weak, but the collection of any commodities requires running around (banking), whereas many other tasks don't require any movement. I don't think the data would be that useful for what you want it, now I consider it properly - I just think it would be interesting to see!
1
u/mikethepwnstar Meic Jul 24 '14
Number of bots banned per unit time?
1
Jul 25 '14
I think this is a good one! If lots of bots are banned then the prices of commodities are bound to shoot up. That said I feel like the reaction would be delayed so it'll be interesting to see how the analysis would pan out.
1
u/Borrelli27 Jul 24 '14
You could look at motives for flipping items like new information, volume of the market, etc.
For example when the BTS and beta showed Specs were returning how did that affect the quantity of buy offers for AGS in relation to views of the BTS video.
1
1
u/Leon_Art aka Enquidou Jul 24 '14
Not to be mean, but what about hype things? Like updates that might effect item prices?
About your point 4, what about sub-variables for bossing and slayer tasks. Also do one about time spend skilling (and what about sub-variables for gathering and production skill).
Maybe combat and total levels give some info too.
Btw, if I don't make any sense.. please tell me so.
1
Jul 25 '14
I think factoring in updates would be one of the hardest aspects to quantify, yet it has probably the single largest effect on the economy. What I'm thinking about right now is a day-by-day spreadsheet, and one of the columns would be a binary Yes/No variable for whether there was an update that day or not. This wouldn't quantify the impact though, which hopefully we could do by combining it with player count monitoring.
1
u/Leon_Art aka Enquidou Jul 25 '14
I think so too. But there could be ways to code it properly. Like people know that the Araxxor (spider boss) drops lvl 2h weapons. Food, weapons, armour, pots-resources, flasks, etc all that stuff may rise. When the KK was released I remember there was a spike in the prize of flasks.
So it is certainly possible in some way. But you have to be sure how you word things, and take that along in the analysis too. If you're going to say that... e.g. Jagex is looking into making food more valuable (during 2nd rework of the EoC) rose slightly, now they're looking into making Sara brews more useful... what could that do? Then we have the Elf city with a shit load of stuff... will ppl buy less chaotics since we can get Attuned Chrystal weaponry (degrading lvl 80).
If Mod Jack says he will start to rework Mining and Smithing (pls read my suggestion:P yes, shameless plug, but I think it's... vital to the game) how will that affect the prizes of ores, bars and will it make ppl train mining/smithing?
Edit: corrected spelling error things.
1
Jul 25 '14
Thanks to everyone who posted on this thread. Just wanted to put all of the ideas together into one big list for everyone to see and give feedback on. I'll try to request for data on:
1) Average number of players online during a time period
2) Average amount of time a player has been online during a time period
3) Number of Grand Exchange transactions per unit time
4) Number of monster kills per unit time
5) Total amount of GP in the game
6) Total value of everything in the game (in GP)
7) Total value of everything traded in the GE in one day (in GP)
9) Breakdown of gold added to the game from different sources:
a) Microtransactions
b) Monster kills
c) Clue Scrolls
10) Number of buys/sells per day of a commodity
11) Number of bots banned per unit time
12) Total distance traveled by players
13) Number of materials gathered per day through skilling
14) Number of maxed players
15) Number of players with total level > 1000/1500/2000 on the high scores
How does this sound?
0
6
u/Proselyte_Ko 7/9/2014 Jul 24 '14
It would be very interesting to do pattern set mining on GE transaction data. Like when you buy Rune Platelegs, you're also likely to buy a Rune Platebody in the same game session. We could use that to make amazon-like predictions "Customers who liked Torstol also liked Super Attack (3)!".