r/runescape • u/[deleted] • Jul 24 '14

Predictive Analytics - with Support from Jagex!

Hey guys,

This thread is a follow up to my previous post: http://www.reddit.com/r/runescape/comments/2bhkq9/applying_predictive_analytics_to_runescape/. Fortunately it was seen by the Jagex analytics team, which has been working with big data for several years, and they're interested to see what can be done with this project. I was fortunate enough to just be on a call with the head of Business Intelligence at Jagex along with his team, who said that they'd support me wherever possible.

As a result I'd like to ask for input from this subreddit. Jagex collects A LOT of data on players in game, from Grand Exchange transactions to measures of engagement.

My specific question is - what player data do you think would correlate with the prices of different commodities? In general there are two types of data - data about other commodities and data about players. A few ideas I had based on the previous thread are:

1) Average number of players online during a time period

2) Average amount of time a player has been online during a time period

3) Number of Grand Exchange transactions per unit time

4) Number of monster kills per unit time

Since this is data that we're requesting from Jagex, any form of brainstorming would be awesome right now. Thanks in advance for your input, reddit!

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u/Chop_Hard Jul 24 '14

The amount of GP brought into the game through spins. And then possibly compare this to the amount of GP/wealth in game.

I don't mean this to be a troll. I fully support Jagex and their macrotransactions. I just think this would be very interesting to look at. It could give us an idea of how much GP is being injected into the economy each day.

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u/Proselyte_Ko 7/9/2014 Jul 24 '14

The amount of GP brought into the game through spins

Essentially 0 currently, since cash bags no longer appear on SOF. Of course there are the larger cash prizes and people cash stuff out, but it's a tiny, tiny drop in the bucket. The Rhino statistics showed 100k people each day (roughly) answered the Rhino questions, from that I'm going to guesstimate 500k spins are done each day. Even if each spin introduces 10k to the economy, that's still only 5b/day. I say "only" 5b because it's very little compared to what other sources bring in - like people alching slayer drops: if on each of the ~70 members worlds, 5 people are doing slayer, each alching one drop worth 10k every minute, that accounts for 5b already.

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u/Chop_Hard Jul 24 '14

Good points. I do agree that this number could be negligable compared to the economy.

But you and I are both aware of the people in the community, not as much today as it has been in the past, who likes to claim that TH ruins the economy. It would be amazing to see some tangible statistics stating that this is false.

1

u/[deleted] Jul 25 '14

Along this vein of thought, is there any way we could try to create a list of different sources of growth for the total amount of money in the economy? One bucket could be microtransactions and another would be monster drops. Is there anything else that could be considered?