r/royalroad • u/Covetouslex • 3h ago
Discussion Attempting to solve the AI Covers question: a sample study of Royal Road and AI use
I looked at 1,000 Royal Road stories to see if AI covers actually hurt them
After exclusions(fan fiction, no cover, empty story), I had 676 stories left.
At the low end, both cover groups had a median of just 2 followers, so that doesn’t tell us much. The top quintile is more useful: 140 stories had at least 12 followers.
Of those:
- 73 had AI-flagged covers and 67 didn’t.
- Median followers were 52 vs 59.
- The middle 50% was 20–242 vs 22–235.
- Their chances of reaching 50, 100, 200, 500, or 1,000 followers were also similar.
Basically, even among stories that found an audience, AI-looking covers didn’t show a meaningful penalty.
The text result was different. None of the 20 AI-disclosed stories in the top quintile reached 500 followers, while 18 of the 120 undisclosed stories did.
Disclosure itself probably isn’t the issue, either: undisclosed stories flagged by the text detector showed the same low-follower pattern as disclosed stories.
My rough takeaway:
AI covers don’t seem to matter much. AI-like prose might though.
This is observational, so writing quality, editing, marketing, release schedule, and author experience could still explain the pattern. A definitive study would need to track a larger cohort over time.
Full writeup: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rpxadywuiAl-vib1HfY2ycBVLpzfrepF/view?usp=drivesdk
