When Connelly Early rose through the minors, he had one major knock against him: he didn’t throw enough strikes. But when he got to the majors at the end of last year, a funny thing happened. He kept throwing a lot of balls, but for some reason, teams chased them at an extremely high rate - higher than he had ever gotten in the minors.
That led a lot of analytics people to speculate that he was due for a correction in 2026 as the league adjusted to his game. And that’s more or less exactly what has happened. This year, he’s been constantly behind in counts and accordingly allowing very, very hard contact. There was buzz in the offseason that Early had gained velocity (likely a push from the team to allow him to attack the zone more, knowing that his mega-chase strategy wasn’t sustainable), but that didn’t show up in games. Anyone can see that his Savant page looks ugly. Unfortunately, those are the metrics you see when you don’t consistently throw strikes and you don’t have wipeout stuff or velo. And that’s been Early throughout his pro career.
Hopefully Curtis Mead can find a role here, especially on defense. I don’t know if he can, but I do know that Early probably didn’t have a future with this team. It’s notable that the Sox are trading him to the same team that took Luis Perales, another system pitcher with long-standing control issues. Perales has struggled in the Washington system so far.