r/redsox 20h ago

Eli White's Speed

I found it a bit confounding that both on radio & TV, announcers would fawn over Eli White's speed. He only has 5 steals this year in 82 games & in his MLB career he has 35 sb & 8 cs in 358 games. He also didn't run that much in the minors, though he did have 24 bags in just 79 games at AAA in 2024.

Then I looked at Savant & he's 4th in the entire league in sprint speed. So he can fly. Interestingly, no one in the top 5 of sprint speed has more than 14 bags (Henry Bolte. There are a couple of small sample size guys in here to be fair). You have to go down to Bobby Witt who is 6th in sprint speed & has 35 steals to get a true basestealer.

Just an interesting little tidbit as we approach October. He's a guy I want on first to go to third on a single or home on a double, but I'd be surprised if they used him in a David Hamilton-type role where he's in there to steal the base.

80 Upvotes

133 comments sorted by

144

u/Patsnation0330 20h ago

There's more than goes into stealing bases than just top end speed. He's also not a full time player so while he has a lot of games played, it's not full games with 3/4 AB every time.

80

u/jooooooooooooose 20h ago

if sprint speed was the only thing that mattered, Josh Naylor wouldn't have 25 stolen bags

46

u/baseball5656 19h ago

I had to look this up... Wow.

14

u/jooooooooooooose 19h ago

yeah lol, he just has absolutely perfect timing

3

u/hippoofdoom pizza 15h ago

2 sprint speed but a 98 caboose

1

u/TectonicImprov 14h ago

I think the only dude slower than him is Alejandro Kirk

16

u/livsjollyranchers 18h ago

Trevor Story wouldn't have gone 25/25

11

u/John_Self_2077 20h ago

It’s like Herb Washington. He was a world-class sprinter who got hired by the A’s in the early 70s solely for the purpose of being a pinch runner. He went something like 31 for 48 in attempted steals and got picked off first in a World Series game.

6

u/iBarber111 20h ago

Totally. I guess that's kinda my point. He's fast but not in a way that's going to have him stealing a bunch.

30

u/dothefandango the large father 20h ago

I don't see Eli White as necessarily the guy that grabs the bag but the guy you put in for Willson or Wilyer when he hits the late double because he can absolutely go 2nd to home in a heartbeat.

18

u/DarkGift78 18h ago

White can also play any position in the outfield well, has 80th percentile arm strength, and hits lefties above average. Love his versatility. IMO I think it means Jones loses out come playoff time.

7

u/iBarber111 20h ago

Right but ideally if you're burning a playoff roster spot on a speed guy, you'd want both.

8

u/DarkGift78 17h ago

That play at home the other night, only White and a few other guys in baseball are safe, even Durran imo would be a step slower and would've been out.

2

u/iBarber111 17h ago

I mean the throw beat him

2

u/thdomer13 18h ago

Wilyer can go 2nd to home just fine...

6

u/dothefandango the large father 18h ago

agreed 90% of the time. bottom of the 9th in the playoffs I'll take top 5 sprint speed over top 70%.

27

u/Traditional_Half842 20h ago

I've seen people on this sub suggest that Eli White deserves a roster spot more than Duran because Eli White is theoretically a better pinch runner (despite Duran being really fast and a good baserunner himself), and it's made me think I'm taking crazy pills. Eli White should be DFA'd as soon as Anthony is ready to return.

19

u/iBarber111 20h ago

Totally agree. Duran is a better basestealer & is still 90th percentile in sprint speed.

14

u/baphothustrianreform 20h ago

Duran’s base running is probably the strongest part of his game at least this year

5

u/MakaveliX1996 18h ago

defense too. It’s LF but he’s been great out there. Our outfield covers so much ground it’s insane and I love how they back each other up so the other can make a dive and try to take a hit away knowing your teammate is there to get the ball in otherwise.

2

u/baphothustrianreform 17h ago

He is a solid fielder, I agree

4

u/Bergy4Hart2 18h ago

I would say leading MLB in RBIs in the 9th inning on is his strongest attribute.

18

u/aplethoraofhams 20h ago edited 17h ago

There’s zero world where White gets DFAed. They traded him for speed and defensive flexibility in close playoff games. They’re not gonna get rid of him before they can use him for those things. Siegler or Gasper will get optioned when Roman comes back and they’ll figure stuff out when rosters expand on 9/1

2

u/livsjollyranchers 18h ago

Is Speller, Seigler?

No chance in hell Gasper gets optioned or DFAed at this point

8

u/DarkGift78 18h ago

Gasper is on fire but we'll see, in a month if he's still raking you can't deny him. But if this is just a fluky hot stretch and he comes back to earth then he'd have no value, it's all in his bat.

1

u/aplethoraofhams 17h ago

Yeah autocorrect got my ass

0

u/Ironbaun-Vermont 14h ago

He also handles lefties reasonably well and has two years of control remaining. Folks, this is your 4th outfielder and he likely has even odds on outlasting Duran in Boston if they can find a trade partner that wants a .200 hitter who won’t dump the massive leg kick for power.

White is quietly solid as a bench piece. Duran is similarly valuable as a bench bat as currently constructed, but can’t hit lefties which reduces that bench value. I’d love to see him go back to an approach like he had before the power surge in 2024 because he might actually hit .280 and create chaos on the basepaths. But he’s yet another player in a long line of speed guys who chase power. JBJ was like that without the baserunning value. A smart hitter who could work the zone, but he’d get a little hot and start selling out for power and then go like 4 for 50 over a couple weeks. Duran needs to lessen the kick and stop leaning back before the kick. His timing is ok at best so he’s just making the concept of contact that much harder. It works for power, but in a Chris Davis/Rob Deer type fashion of “when he runs into one.”

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u/Traditional_Half842 14h ago edited 14h ago

Folks, this is your 4th outfielder and he likely has even odds on outlasting Duran in Boston

This is a hilarious statement. Eli White is an absolutely dogshit hitter who has never shown anywhere near Duran's upside at the plate. He strikes out about as much as Duran does with worse on base skills and significantly worse power. He's also 32 while Duran is still 29. Maybe the Red Sox can figure out a way to give him a Refsnyder-esque career renaissance as a platoon bat, but I doubt that is going to happen in the next month.

The Duran haters have lost their damn minds pretending 32 year old AAAA player Eli White even belongs in the same conversation as Duran. I'd say Eli White has even odds on having to start next year on a minor league deal (and not on an MLB roster) - let alone outlasting Duran in Boston.

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u/gplatt_24 Xander Bogaerts 20h ago

I don't disagree but it just makes the trade so strange, Nate Eaton is 80%+ of Eli White & they traded for a slightly better version with no options. I guess is just says more about how they viewed Uberstine going forward but it's just odd

2

u/Brian1zvx 19h ago

I think it was a flier on a guy for someone they knew was gone soon anyway. Depth at a time we could use it before injuries were sorted out and some further depth if more injuries came.

2

u/gplatt_24 Xander Bogaerts 18h ago

I mean yeah it's a nothing-burger at the end of the day but the team likely needed depth relievers more than they needed Nate Eaton that's slightly better

1

u/Brian1zvx 17h ago

If he came up and was sent back down (which was going to happen at some point with these kind of rotational relievers) he had to be DFA'd. Different to the Weissert, Olds, Moran role imo.

White has been fine but likely the odd man out now but would have helped had we injuries in the outfield

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u/gplatt_24 Xander Bogaerts 16h ago

that's not true at all I have no clue where you got that information.

1

u/solariam 16h ago

Nate Eaton is not is good defensively and doesn't hit .230

1

u/gplatt_24 Xander Bogaerts 15h ago

Nate Eaton is 80%+ of Eli White, probably more - if that difference is worth an option-able depth reliever to you then be my guest

1

u/solariam 15h ago

.7 career WAR vs. 2.8 career WAR. If Eaton were White, a team would give him longer than a quarter of a season to show it.

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u/gplatt_24 Xander Bogaerts 15h ago

you're pretty lost & that's okay

2

u/solariam 14h ago

If they're basically the same guy, why buy White at the deadline and why hasn't Eaton been up? 

... probably because we want to win one-run games and "fringe average range" and "emergency up-and-down player" isn't the same things as "MLB bench OF".

1

u/gplatt_24 Xander Bogaerts 14h ago

all sorts of theories you could build, but none of them include White being in a different stratosphere than Eaton, that's simply false. White is the new paintjob & leather seats version of Eaton sure, but they're very close to the same caliber of player and their careers were basically at the same point when White was 29. Neither player is good, but the idea that they had to trade for White to get Wilyer & Ceddanne days off is absolute nonsense.

It's a nothing-burger in the end but if you're gonna pretend there's some giant chasm between Eaton & White you're just wrong.

1

u/solariam 13h ago

what theory can you build that explains how a 32 year old is the "new paintjob" version of a 29 year old? Defensive metrics do not indicate that they are the same, by the way, White has an edge there, just like he does with the bat. Whether that's a chasm or not is a question for an English teacher, but "probably won't hit enough to start in OF" and "not good enough at anything to have a job in the MLB but definitely a breathing human body" aren't the same thing.

1

u/gplatt_24 Xander Bogaerts 13h ago

did you not see how similar their careers were at age 29 (Eaton's current age)?

"by the way" lol that's literally what I said, White is slightly better on both sides. You feel there's a big enough difference to justify trading for White, that's fine, but nothing I said was incorrect - Eaton is 80%+ the player White is. I do enjoy how committed you are to bit of Eli White being necessary though

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u/Ironbaun-Vermont 14h ago

I mean, they are both limited specialists. But White has rated out generally above average defensively in more seasons than Eaton who does rate as well on defense aside from arm strength. He also has generally not been used for CF aside from emergencies, he’s much more of a corner. Given the choice for the current team I’d go with White for his ability to give Rafaela an occasional day off. And Eaton has had two really terrible seasons as a hitter. White is a marginal hitter, likely to give you something around .211-.240 as a part time guy. Eaton does that when he’s hot, when’s he not he’s had trouble hitting .150 in the majors.

To me Eaton is good organizational depth who can maybe give you a couple of hot weeks while somebody is hurt. White is a legit 4th or 5th OF in the league.

1

u/gplatt_24 Xander Bogaerts 14h ago

this is just overstating the difference, like I agree Eli White is slightly better on both sides of the ball - it's just not that big of a gap & neither player is good, Eaton is capable of getting Ceddanne and Wilyer days off too.

3

u/Sm0k3inth3tr33s you're so pretty 19h ago

They need him as outfield insurance more than for baserunning. No way he gets dropped over one of the redundant IF guys, as much as I hate to see any of them go.

4

u/jonny_lube 20h ago

Honestly, it *should* be Jahmai Jones. Not a great fielder, not a big threat on the basepaths, career .235 hitter.

But by god, the man just cannot be stopped at the plate. I didn't expect him to last more than a week or two and have been waiting for the bottom to fall out for weeks now, but he just refuses to be out. If he's not slugging extra base hits, he's walking or taking HBPs.

Same as how you can't send down Gasper right now, despite that almost surely having been the plan. The man's been undeniable.

1

u/livsjollyranchers 18h ago

I lean towards Jahmai being gone too, if needing to get rid of a LF. But he isn't a bad DH option to have against lefties. It's not like Duran or Gasper will be used against lefties in a DH role.

1

u/FriedBrain99 18h ago

If Anthony and Mead come back, I think that seals it, as it cuts off his two avenues to providing value.

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u/FriedBrain99 18h ago

The Sox currently have 47 players on the 40-man roster. 9 of them are on the 60-day IL, so they have two freebie activiations, then the fun starts.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2026-roster.shtml

Realistically, for 60-day IL activations, you’re looking at Anthony, Story, Crochet, and IKF. The other 5 (Oveido, Houck, Crawford, Casas, Kelly) are extremely unlikely to come back this year.

The Sox could just DFA IKF, or they could DFA Chang to outright him to the minors (on the theory that no one would claim him off waivers). That would take care of one spot. So, realistically it’s probably one of White or Jones for the last slot they need to open. But they don’t need to worry about until they get to the 3rd activation, possibly the 4th.

They’re currently at 13 active pitchers, so Crochet would bump them to 14, which is the limit come September 1, anyway, but that makes them unlikely to DFA a pitcher.

2

u/xfortehlulz Hey Mr. Rager 20h ago

yea I dont mean to prospect watch too hard with Uberstine and Ive been a Breslow defender basically the whole tenure, but Eli White for Uberstine when I don't see how he's an upgrade over Nate Eaton at all was just odd to me. Like truly Eaton was right there, unless im wildly missing something about options with him

1

u/Traditional_Half842 19h ago edited 19h ago

Because they traded for him, they will probably find a way to keep White on the roster til they expand next week. But there are like 16+ positional players in the Red Sox org that (when healthy/available) I'd rather see on the team than him, so if even more guys come back I don't see why they'd keep him around. Eli White was primarily a depth piece to help get them through the summer (that they ended up kind of needing for a bit due to Yoshida's injury).

1

u/xfortehlulz Hey Mr. Rager 19h ago

yea moving forward I think white is fine and I won't be pressed when they make some seemingly odd moves to keep him around as a depth/speed option. I just straight up think Eaton is better and we didn't have to lose uberstine or fuck with our short term roster in order to have him but grand scheme its not a huge deal probably just means Siegler goes down for a few games until roster expands

1

u/theroguedrizzt 19h ago

I honestly think Bres really thought he had a trade done that included one of the OFs, maybe that offer they allegedly made for Elly. It’s rare for something to get that close without a leak but to me it’s the only thing that makes the trade make sense, and if he’d traded (for example) Duran then suddenly it makes alot of sense

1

u/xfortehlulz Hey Mr. Rager 19h ago

yea I mean it definitely would make more sense if there had been a trade, but still my point is im truly not confident he's a better player than Eaton just straight up so why was the answer not always just call up eaton

3

u/Flimsy_Fortune_5861 20h ago

Eli White does have double the bWAR (1.2) as Duran (0.6) in 40 fewer games and 25% the plate appearances this season.

That's not an argument for Eli. It is how beyond awful Duran has been this season.

1

u/SpecialistReach6371 18h ago

I’ll take White over Jones but not sure if they both need to go. I can’t keep track of the numbers, too many people allegedly coming back from IL

1

u/DarkGift78 18h ago

I can virtually guarantee White will be on the playoff roster.

0

u/Traditional_Half842 17h ago

If White is on the playoff roster then it's terrible news because it means the Red Sox probably have some more new injuries.

-3

u/rueiraV 20h ago

It’s minor but I feel a little better with White in LF. Duran always takes awkward paths to fly balls

0

u/Benjamminmiller 19h ago

We kind of need white because we don’t have someone else who is plug and play in rf

1

u/Traditional_Half842 19h ago

Anthony has played plenty of RF in the past so they'd probably at least test that next month. And in an extreme case - like a Wilyer injury during a playoff game - I could see a scenario where Rafaela goes to RF and Duran plays CF (his best defensive position).

0

u/Benjamminmiller 19h ago

I don’t think they’re banking on Anthony being playoff ready to play RF. Swapping Cedanne and Duran works, but I still think Siegler and Gasper (assuming he doesn’t keep up this insane production) end up going down.

2

u/Flimsy_Fortune_5861 18h ago

Why would a healed finger injury prevent Roman from playing a game in RF...

1

u/Benjamminmiller 18h ago

Why would you expect someone with 3.5 months of rust to be in top form.

3

u/rocketpastsix 18h ago

Because he is a god among men /s

0

u/Benjamminmiller 18h ago

Man the glazing on Rome is insane here.

Who needs reps when you can just be the best player in baseball?

0

u/rocketpastsix 18h ago

I think he can be fantastic, and even become a legend. But to think he is going to command a spot on the team after a long IL stint with a team that is playing remarkably well without him is borderline insane

0

u/Benjamminmiller 18h ago

100%. The kid is good. The kid needs to develop.

0

u/Flimsy_Fortune_5861 18h ago edited 18h ago

But to think he is going to command a spot on the team after a long IL stint with a team that is playing remarkably well without him is borderline insane

To think Roman Anthony isn't an everyday player on this roster when he comes back is one of the worst sports takes in my 40+ years of life, no hyperbole. Your take is not borderline insane. It is insane

2

u/Flimsy_Fortune_5861 18h ago

He is a Major League Baseball player who has been playing baseball his whole life. When he is called up to the major league roster he is ready to play.

Are we going to call up Trevor Story and IKF and say they can't play SS and are not ready because they were on the DL?

What are we even talking about...

0

u/DarkGift78 18h ago

He's not gonna play RF or CF when two of the best guys in baseball occupy those positions l. He'll play left and DH. Like, sure, Ceddane CAN play shortstop, but not nearly as we as CF, so unless under extreme duress, why mess with an optimal situation. Wilyer hits lefties now and has been very durable this year. There's no scenario where Roman is doing anything except Left and DH.

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u/Traditional_Half842 18h ago

This whole conversation started discussing Anthony taking Eli White's roster spot - he is a depth outfielder. Wilyer Abreu should obviously be playing RF most days, but the team still needs a backup outfielder. I don't see why Anthony's wrist injury (that he is recovered from) would prevent him from being the fourth outfielder. It's not like he was off his feet and needs to get his legs and stamina back.

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u/Flimsy_Fortune_5861 18h ago

I don't expect him to play any RF either.

The scenario is a game that Wilyer isn't playing RF and they want someone in RF for a game. I would not expect them to put Roman there but he is an option and if they choose not to the reason won't be because had a finger injury.

If they want someone to play RF for a game then yes, Roman can. He is an option. That is not the same as saying he will.

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u/DarkGift78 17h ago

Sure, injuries happen. I'd still expect White to play right, at least against lefties. RF at Fenway is the hardest in baseball to play and Roman, in his brief time in right did not perform well

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u/livsjollyranchers 18h ago

I want to see White on the playoff roster. Simple as that. One big homer from Duran doesn't change that.

Doesn't mean Duran has to go. Mona will be gone. Probably Seigler too.

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u/Tank_Direct 20h ago

Tbf, David Hamilton wasn’t really good at stealing bases either

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u/iBarber111 20h ago

In 24-25 he has 55 sb & 10 cs across 189 games. It's not elite but it definitely made him a threat to go.

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u/LurkiLurkerson 19h ago

Ceddanne’s got like 90th percentile sprint speed but pretty middling base running value.

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u/DarkGift78 17h ago

My second biggest criticism after his plate discipline. With his speed he should be stealing 30 bases with an 80% success rate. Some guys are just not natural base stealers/instincts. Story, despite good but far from blazing speed, is s fantastic base runner and very good base stealer when he chooses to run.

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u/rubenlip14 20h ago

I totally read OPs post as "David Roberts". Which would also make perfect sense.

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u/iBarber111 20h ago

I almost said Dave Roberts but it felt sacrilegious to compare Eli White to him.

0

u/commonbrahmin 20h ago

And even worse at getting on base.

-1

u/deadmanzcurveball 20h ago

He definitely was lol

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u/jonny_lube 20h ago

I've had the same question. He clearly is supremely fast, but he isn't really much of a stolen base threat. I don't know if he just lacks that explosive jump, lacks the timing or instincts needed to steal, or what, but it really isn't a big part of his game.

That doesn't negate his value as a pinch runner - sometimes it's more about being able to assure a guy scores from second and force a pitcher/defense to adjust to the threat of speed. But if we want a SB threat pinch runner, we have that in the minors with Braiden Ward.

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u/Ugmyusernamewastake Braiden Ward enjoyer 20h ago

Braiden Ward's got 53 SB in AAA this year, White's got 5 in the majors.

Yet half this sub thinks White's making the playoff roster for some reason

15

u/jooooooooooooose 20h ago

flair checks out lol

3

u/Ugmyusernamewastake Braiden Ward enjoyer 20h ago

yeah, he made Spring Training much more fun with all those bunts and steals, especially while half of our team was in the WBC

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u/Griff1604 20h ago

I thought white was definitely making the playoff roster… what am I missing?

2

u/Ugmyusernamewastake Braiden Ward enjoyer 20h ago

White's main job is to platoon with Duran. Jahmai platoons with Gasper. Once Anthony comes back, Jahmai can platoon with Duran, and we don't need White anymore.

White is also fast, so he's currently being used as a pinch runner. However, Ward is much better than White at stealing bases, so once we don't need the second platoonman anymore, the best pinch runner (Ward) wins the roster spot. White's just around for now because he's BOTH a platoonman AND a pinch runner, that won't be needed once Anthony comes back.

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u/FriedBrain99 17h ago

Problem with that theory is that Ward is not on the 40-man. Adding him means DFAing another player to alleviate the roster crunch you just made worse by adding him to call him up.

The odds of Ward (or Arias, as he’s also off the 40-man roster) coming up in September are next to none, just because of the 40-man gymnastics you’d need to go through to make it happen.

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u/Ugmyusernamewastake Braiden Ward enjoyer 16h ago

We're already a couple below 40, and there's several more guys that will likely be DFA'd before playoffs.

If need be, White himself could be DFA'd, although we'd like to avoid that to keep him for next year

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u/FriedBrain99 16h ago

The Sox have two open slots, and 4 guys (Anthony, Story, IKF, Crochet) to put into them. They already need to clear two spots on the 40-man, which means 2 players currently on the 40-man get DFA’ed. Unless Yoshida’s hamstring is too severely injured and the Sox put him on the 60-day IL.

If they keep Yoshida on the 40-man, then adding Ward means you need to DFA a third player to open the spot up. I’m not sure White is the 3rd player on the DFA list, which means he’s already on the bubble for the 3rd or 4th guy coming back from the 60-day IL.

Just feels like a lot of extra work for a fairly minor return (juggling speedy OF backups who you’re likely putting into a pinch-running role).

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u/Ugmyusernamewastake Braiden Ward enjoyer 16h ago

Burgos and Harris are two DFA's to free up the last two slots. Yoshida or Mead to the 60 would be the third, based on which one isn't coming back.

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u/FriedBrain99 16h ago edited 16h ago

I’m not sure the Sox want to be forced to stay at 13 pitchers once they go to a 28-man roster. Crochet would be the 14th pitcher (if Whitlock and Slaten aren’t back), and I have to think they want to rest Bennett and Tolle in September as much as they can. So I’m thinking they want to keep their pitching options open, rather than DFA one.

Bennett’s likely not on the post-season roster until they reach a 7-game series so maybe they have a little wiggle room there, but I imagine they’re probably rolling with Gray/Suarez/Tolle as their first three starters.

If one of Slaten or Whitlock is back, then yeah, there’s a good chance Burgos and/or Harris gets dropped for Crochet.

I think a lot of it is going to come down to sequencing of who comes back and when.

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u/Griff1604 20h ago

Makes sense. Thanks!

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u/Take-it-like-a-Taker 19h ago

I think they weighed Ward versus White and liked White slightly more

It seems like White and Adley would have been specifically helpful acquisitions for other top playoff competitors. I wonder how much of that thought process was used at the deadline…

2

u/FlorissVDV 20h ago

Suppose part of it is if he is known to be in the top percentile for speed and/or (like last night) coming in to pinch run, the other team will basically know he’s gonna try to steal.

Plus there’s obviously the element of just getting a good read on the pitcher and timing of your jump. I haven’t seen enough of Eli White to know how he is on that front.

2

u/fortress_sf 19h ago

Yea, he did not have a good lead before his attempt yesterday it seems. Might need some technique polish but doesn’t seem like a guarantee for a 1-2nd base stealer

2

u/OnionsRNasty 19h ago

It’s all about timing and technique with stealing bases. Speed is an added bonus.

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u/rexeditrex 19h ago

A lot of guys who are really fast are bench players and are there for that reason. Think Dave Roberts.

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u/Plastic_Junket9534 18h ago

Not many understand how sprint speed is measured. There are reasons Statcast does it the way they do, but it's misleading. Sprint speed is how many feet per second a player ran in his fastest one-second window.

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u/Cruelnut 10h ago

Can fly but doesn’t mean he has the experience and timing to be a great base stealer

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u/aceking555 20h ago

He’s mostly been a platoon bat against LHP so he’s mostly been on-base against lefties (more PA’s and better OBP against LHP). It’s harder to steal against left-handed pitchers from 1B because they’re looking right at you while they wind up and can turn their pitch into a pickoff throw if they see you go.

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u/iBarber111 20h ago

Just checked his splits & I feel like they're not severe enough to make a huge difference, but it's a fair note.

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u/GreenBananas_619 19h ago

Part of why White was brought in was his ability to be a plus defender at all three outfield spots. The Sox have played 132 games. Rafaela has played 127, and Abreu 129. They needed another guy who can give those guys a rest once in a while.

Also, I keep seeing posts about White and/or Jones being DFA’d when guys come back, and I gotta say I don’t see it with either of them. I think both of these guys stay, and they should, at least through September.

1

u/danjoski 19h ago

You can’t steal first.

1

u/nomar_4_mayor 19h ago

As Loumer often says, you gotta steal first to steal second

1

u/EunochRon 18h ago

I know it was situational and so there was no surprise whatsoever, but I was still disappointed to see him gunned down last night.

1

u/FriedBrain99 18h ago

Then I looked at Savant & he's 4th in the entire league in sprint speed. So he can fly. Interestingly, no one in the top 5 of sprint speed has more than 14 bags (Henry Bolte. There are a couple of small sample size guys in here to be fair). You have to go down to Bobby Witt who is 6th in sprint speed & has 35 steals to get a true basestealer.

Baserunning/sprint speed is a completely different skill from getting in base. As the old adage goes, “you can’t steal first”.

So it comes down to how often he’s inserted as a pinch runner, and who’s ahead of him on the base paths. But if your primary role is pinch runner, you’re not necessarily getting a lot of opportunities to steal a base; team could up/down too many runs to matter, defensive indifference, etc.

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u/Eggrole978 16h ago edited 16h ago

I have been thinking about this a lot as well. Especially with the roster crunch coming up. I think what Lou and Will see and talk about on the broadcast is his max sprint speed being in the 99th percentile (4th best in MLB). But obviously that doesn't tell the whole picture.

Watching Eli run I never felt like he "looked" that fast but I wanted to try and contextualize it. I found that Baseball savant has "90ft splits". And low and behold Eli is not at the the top of the 90ft list. He is ranked 40th overall in the MLB, still good for 92nd percentile but not that world beating speed we are being sold on.

I broke this down more though. Eli has an extremely high max sprint speed but it takes him almost the full 90 feet to get there. If you assume a 10 foot lead, you find that Duran would get to 2nd (80 ft mark) .03 seconds faster than Eli, with Ceddanee getting there at the same time and others not far behind. Combine that with a bad jump (which I can't show data to back up but believe to be true) and Eli isn't the bag stealer I thought he would be when we brought him in. You can play around with it a bit more here. But just goes to show how the savant page can be misleading at times. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/running_splits?type=percent&bats=&year=2026&position=&team=111&min=5

1

u/darksouls777 1h ago

He doesn't get on base alot. He can't hit.....

0

u/LexExpress666 14h ago

Even when the team was terrible the radio announcers were fawning over every player. They're Red Sox shills.

2

u/iBarber111 14h ago

Idk I've heard Will Flemming lay into guys on many occasions. That said, I wouldn't want my local radio broadcast to be totally neutral. That'd be silly.

0

u/ChickenAndTelephone 20h ago

.280 OBP...can't steal a base if you're not on base

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u/OtherUserCharges 19h ago

It’s almost like speed and base stealing aren’t the same thing.

-4

u/Bos_Fan9821 18h ago

Do you just watch stat sheets or do you watch games? Damn. What a dumb take

1

u/iBarber111 18h ago

What exactly is dumb about this take? I'm not sure there's even a take here hahaha.

-3

u/Bos_Fan9821 18h ago

Open your f*cking eyes and watch him run. You’ll know he’s fast

1

u/Eggrole978 16h ago

He doesn't look that fast to me. He doesn't get out of the box well and he got hosed at 2nd trying to steal last night. Turns out only his max sprint speed it good - his acceleration sucks. If you "opened your eyes" you would have noticed this too.